Wind Advisory 8, NWS Burlington, VT

560 
WWUS71 KBTV 180628
NPWBTV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
228 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>009-011-016>020-182030-
/O.CON.KBTV.WI.Y.0008.260618T1200Z-260619T0000Z/
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-
Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Western Rutland-Eastern
Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
Western Windsor-
Including the cities of Malone, Newcomb, Ludlow, Swanton, Bethel,
Fair Haven, Champlain, Shelburne, Bristol, Island Pond, Johnson,
Tupper Lake, Rutland, Ripton, Norfolk, Hardwick, East
Wallingford, Enosburg Falls, Middlebury, Port Henry, South Hero,
Fort Covington, Dannemora, Vergennes, Montpelier, Richford, Lake
Placid, Waitsfield, Derby, St. Albans, Lunenburg, Killington,
Ellenburg, Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Massena, South Colton,
Saranac Lake, Gouverneur, Burlington, Stowe, Alburgh, Richmond,
Potsdam, Underhill, Plattsburgh, St. Johnsbury, Star Lake, and
Newport
228 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM 
EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts between 45 and 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...All of northern New York and most of Vermont outside of 
  Orange and eastern Windsor counties.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down with isolated to scattered power outages 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds will be between 9 AM and 
  1 PM, especially in the northern Champlain Valley and northern 
  slopes of the Adirondacks, with another round of strong winds in 
  northern New York between 3 PM and 8 PM. Fully leafed out trees 
  will result in more tree damage than with similar wind speeds 
  during the colder months of the year.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Storm

916 
WWUS71 KBTV 181832
NPWBTV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
232 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>009-011-016>020-190000-
/O.CON.KBTV.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-260619T0000Z/
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-
Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Western Rutland-Eastern
Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
Western Windsor-
Including the cities of Shelburne, Fair Haven, Richford, St.
Albans, Alburgh, Waitsfield, Plattsburgh, East Wallingford,
Tupper Lake, Middlebury, Killington, Newport, Rutland, Vergennes,
St. Johnsbury, Newcomb, Ogdensburg, Burlington, Ticonderoga,
Saranac Lake, Enosburg Falls, Johnson, Norfolk, Port Henry,
Ripton, Star Lake, Lunenburg, Ludlow, Ellenburg, Massena, South
Colton, Swanton, Montpelier, Bristol, Potsdam, Champlain, Derby,
Richmond, Underhill, Gouverneur, Stowe, Bethel, South Hero, Fort
Covington, Dannemora, Malone, Lake Placid, Hardwick, and Island
Pond
232 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...All of northern New York and most of Vermont outside of 
  Orange and eastern Windsor counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Fully leafed out trees will be vulnerable to 
  gusty west to southwest winds through this evening, following the 
  heavy rainfall that has occurred.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Kutikoff

506 
WWUS71 KBTV 182338
NPWBTV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
738 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>009-011-016>020-190045-
/O.CAN.KBTV.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-260619T0000Z/
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-
Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Western Rutland-Eastern
Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
Western Windsor-
Including the cities of Island Pond, Burlington, Newcomb, Port
Henry, Gouverneur, Tupper Lake, Underhill, Alburgh, Bristol,
Ellenburg, Stowe, Vergennes, Saranac Lake, St. Albans,
Ticonderoga, Hardwick, Shelburne, Plattsburgh, St. Johnsbury,
Richmond, Bethel, Newport, Fair Haven, Enosburg Falls, Dannemora,
East Wallingford, Lake Placid, Malone, South Hero, Lunenburg,
Ogdensburg, Rutland, Norfolk, Star Lake, South Colton, Richford,
Middlebury, Ludlow, Ripton, Potsdam, Derby, Champlain,
Montpelier, Killington, Massena, Fort Covington, Swanton,
Johnson, and Waitsfield
738 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph will continue tonight, with 
localized gusts of 40 mph possible, but will remain below Wind 
Advisory criteria.

$$

Kremer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1252 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 226 AM EDT Wednesday...

Confidence has increased for strong to severe thunderstorms on
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 226 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. A pair of systems expected to track through today and
tomorrow. The second on Thursday will bring more potential impacts
of winds and thunderstorms with embedded heavy rain and damaging
winds.

2. Showery, breezy conditions are expected for the early
portion of the weekend.

3. A low pressure system will likely bring widespread rain to
the region on Monday, followed by seasonably warm temperatures next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 226 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Today will open up with increasing clouds and some
showers and thunderstorms as an upper trough lifts northeast.
Although it's not the strongest trough, it's managed nighttime
convection in the Great Lakes region. South flow today should allow
for moderation into the 70s to near 80 today. Despite somewhat dry
dewpoints, good lapse rates in tandem with the upper trough should
produce scattered to numerous shower activity. Winds aloft are not
strong, but with dry air entrainment, there should be some
acceleration of winds in any thunderstorms. Looking upstream at
Buffalo, NY, showers and storms have produced gusts around 30-35
knots. So that could be in the cards for us too.

Thursday's activity will be more significant. A sub-990mb low will
pass near to north of Ottawa. The level of synoptic support is quite
strong with a near 130 knot upper level jet nosing in.
Isentropic ascent, some elevated instability, and large scale
lift will result in a swath of moderate to heavy rain as the
warm front races northeast. After the warm front lifts out of
the region, the question continues to be how much wind will be
able to mix to the surface after any rainfall. Winds of 45-50
knots descends to about 1500-2000 ft above ground levels. So it
will not take much to mix winds to the surface; however, the
warm sector has trended towards continued convection embedded
within the warm sector as occlusion quickly takes place late
Thursday morning into the afternoon. For now, max wind gusts are
depicted reaching 30-40 mph, and locally up to 45 mph near
Malone, New York. With all the leaves on the trees, this could
pose a greater likelihood for downed branches. Isolated to
scattered power outages will be possible on Thursday.

Next on Thursday will be the convection: The Storm Prediction Center
has upgraded the Severe Weather Outlook to a Slight Risk (Level 2 of
5) for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. The situation
involves high shear in the 0-6km layer of 45-55 knots while
instability of 500-750 J/kg and somewhat low equilibrium levels make
it likely that activity remains short and tilted. CAMs are split on
timing as well, and that will affect how much instability convection
has to develop. With the fast flow, the main concern will be whether
any storms can mix down the strong winds to the surface, and that
will be the primary severe weather hazard. Given such a strong
surface low, excellent inflow from southeast flow, and the quick
westerlies aloft, rotating updrafts are possible. The HREF/REFS
indicates some helicity tracks through the region as well. However,
the strong shear mentioned before may tilt updrafts too much to
sustain organized convection. The system will track east Thursday
evening with storms clearing the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Thursday's strong low pressure gets stuck near Quebec
City for a few days with an upper low nearby. This will impart
breezy west-northwest winds with occasional showers. The greatest
chances will be along the international border given proximity to
the surface low. Both days feature some tall, skinny CAPE profiles.
Given that fast flow will continue with some good low-level lapse
rates, a few showers could produce gusty winds, but none are
anticipated to be particularly strong. Temperatures will trend
cooler heading into the weekend with a seasonable day Friday before
the core of the coldest air arrives Saturday placing temperatures in
the lower 60s to lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A deep trough over the Canadian maritimes will linger
through the weekend bringing showers and the occasional thunderstorm
to the Northeast before finally shifting out into the Atlantic Ocean
early next week. There remains the potential for a potent low
pressure system to pass to our south which would produce widespread
rain and embedded thunderstorms across the region on Monday and
Monday night. Deterministic models continue to disagree on
exact track and timing of this system, with 40-65% chance of
measurable precipitation Monday afternoon and 25-50% chance of a
half an inch within 24 hours during this period. With so much
disagreement in the deterministic global models, temperatures
early next week may depend on precipitation, but the majority of
models at this point seem to be suggesting temperatures could
increase to and even reach slightly above seasonal normals by
midweek with highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s and lows in the
upper 40s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions will persist through 12Z
before CIGs lower as widespread showers spread over northern New
York and Vermont. 18-23Z showers and isolated thunderstorms are
favored with highest chances of TSRA over northern New York as a
trough swings through.

Largest threat to aviators 12-18Z Thursday will be strong SFC
gusts associated with a tight pressure gradient and LLWS ahead
of and along a front moving through the region. Can't rule out
some strong convection either along the front, but will wait to
include in TAFs until they are closer. CIGs lower at least to
MVFR as gusts increase in excess of 30kts for most terminals.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ001>009-
     011-016>020.
NY...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Storm/Haynes
AVIATION...Boyd

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
225 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-180630-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-
Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-
Eastern Windsor-
225 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A strong area of low pressure will bring widespread rainfall and the
potential for strong gusty winds on Thursday. Southeasterly winds
Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon could gust between
35-45 MPH in the western facing slopes of the central and northern
Greens, and 30 to 40 MPH for the rest of the region. Additionally,
isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
with the potential for damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.