Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
241 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 238 PM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes made with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 238 PM EDT Saturday...

1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into the
evening hours with a few stronger storms possible, additional
showers likely on Sunday.

2. Warm and humid weather is expected towards the latter half
of next week, with potential heat risk concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 238 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery potent s/w energy
over the central Great Lakes with sfc low pres approaching the
Ottawa Valley, while a warm frnt is draped acrs central/northern VT.
Our potential for strong/severe storms this aftn continues to be a
conditional threat based on amount of clearing/instability that can
develop. Latest trends on the GEO-Color imagery indicates overcast
skies acrs most of VT with some breaks developing in the warm
sector/dry slot over central NY, angling toward southern
Dacks/southern VT. RAP sfc based CAPE analysis shows 1000-1500 J/kg
within this sector, which wl angle toward c-southern VT by 21z. This
instability combined with potent s/w energy diving toward the SLV,
should provide enough dynamical support to enhance scattered
convective acrs our cwa btwn 21z-02z this evening. The 0-6km wind
shear is 35 to 40 knots, enhanced by a ribbon of stronger 700mb
winds of 40 to 45 knots, per latest upstream VADS at BUF/TYX and
BGM. If enough instability can develop to sustain updrafts and
prevent outflow air from cutting off convection, a few mini bowing
line segments are possible, with greatest potential over
Rutland/Windsor counties, where progged instability wl be the
highest. Continued enhanced wording with small hail and gusty winds
over southern counties. Given the fast westerly flow aloft, storm
motions should be 20 to 30 knots and drier developing aloft, feel
the potential for heavy rainfall/flash flooding is very low thru
this evening. QPF wl vary greatly based on areal coverage of
convection but basin wide averages wl be in the 0.25 to 0.75" thru
tonight. Also, did note some stronger sfc wind gusts outside
convection over western NY associated with better mixing within the
warm sector, so have placed this into our region thru this evening.

As sfc low pres shift into central Maine by 12z Sunday deep
northerly flow develops with additional s/w energy dropping south
acrs our cwa. This s/w energy with additional mid lvl moisture wl
produce more showers on Sunday acrs our cwa. However, instability is
minimal given timing of forcing, so probability of thunder is low
(<15). Have kept pops 70 to 90% thru 18z Sunday, before quickly
tapering off by 00z Monday. Highs mainly in the 70s on Sunday.

Mid/upper lvl ridge builds into the northeast CONUS Sunday into thru
Tuesday. This wl support a warming trend with dry conditions
prevailing. Still noted some bl winds in sounding data on Monday
morning, so did not place fog into the grids, but something to watch
if winds can decouple, especially northern Dack valleys. Progged
925mb temps btwn 16-18C Monday support highs mid 70s to lower 80s.
These 925mb temps warm 18-20C by Tuesday, supporting highs mostly in
the 80s with comfortable humidity values thru early next week and
cool overnight lows.

KEY MESSAGE 2: As we head through next week, increasingly warm and
muggy conditions are expected as the region remains under
southwesterly flow. High temperatures by the middle of next week are
expected to be in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with increasing
dewpoints in the 60s making it feel quite muggy. Overnight lows will
provide little relief with temperatures only dropping into the 60s.
These conditions look to be the hottest of the year so far, with
potential for heat related illness as HeatRisk region reaches
Moderate and Major levels and headlines may be required as we get
closer. In addition to the heat, there will be shower and
thunderstorm chances Thursday and Friday as weak trough moves into
the region with the humid airmass supporting development.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...A period of variable flight conditions is
expected across the region this afternoon as showers and potential
thunderstorms develop across the region after the initial round of
showers this morning. Given the overall uncertainty in timing and
development of thunderstorms and showers, PROB30 groups were
utilized to highlight the most likely period of convection at each
terminals, with thunder chances beginning to drop off towards 00Z or
so as the main boundary moves through. Ceilings are expected to
lower overnight, with terminals trending towards MVFR with ceilings
generally between 1500 and 2500 ft AGL, with IFR ceilings possible
especially KSLK. Additional showers are expected to develop
overnight into the morning hours tomorrow. Winds continue to be
southerly this afternoon, becoming more westerly behind the
convection this evening. Some gusts of 15 to 25 knots will be
possible In addition to the surface winds, pockets of LLWS are
possible overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Taber
DISCUSSION...Kremer/Taber
AVIATION...Kremer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
222 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-070630-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-
Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-
Eastern Windsor-
222 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of southern Vermont,
including southern Rutland and southern Windsor Counties in a Slight
Risk (Risk level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather today. Showers with
embedded thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. A few
strong to locally severe storms are possible between 2 PM and 8 PM
today. The primary threat would be isolated gusty winds, small hail
and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Showers with an embedded thunderstorm are possible Sunday afternoon,
mainly in southern Vermont. A widespread warm up is expected next
week with the potential for major heat risk by Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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