Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
738 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 251 PM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes with this forecast. We are still anticipating
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening
hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will possible, mainly
along/south of a Newcomb, NY to Middlebury to Fairlee, VT line.
Gusty winds and hail will be the primary threats.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 251 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage late
this afternoon and continue into the evening. Some storms may be
strong to severe, mainly over southern Vermont. Quieter weather
follows for Friday and Friday night.

2. Warm and breezy weather on Saturday will give way to much
cooler and rainy conditions on Sunday. Brief mountain snow will be
possible as temperatures drop well below normal by Sunday night.

3. Cooler temperatures and drier weather expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 251 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: We are watching thunderstorms bubble up
along/south of Lake Ontario this afternoon. This activity should
continue to develop over the next couple of hours, quickly
moving east/northeast. The warm front has lifted north and now
lies south of the international border. Temperatures in the
low/mid 70s combined with dewpoints in the low 60s have allowed
SB CAPE values of 1000+ J/kg over the southern Adirondacks into
southern VT. Meanwhile, strong southwest flow aloft is
contributing to 40-50 kt of 0-6km bulk shear. With this in mind,
we still anticipate storms to develop near Lake Ontario
(perhaps along a lake breeze) and propagate eastward. The hi-res
CAM guidance continues to be fairly persistent showing isolated
to perhaps scattered thunderstorms making it into
central/southern VT, with more widespread showers with embedded
thunder along and north of the warm front. Given the above
parameters, a few mini supercells will be possible, capable of
producing strong winds, hail, and briefly heavy rainfall. Storm
motions will be fast, so flash flooding is not anticipated,
outside of perhaps some urban, poor-drainage flooding if a storm
happens to move directly over one of our more urban areas (ie
Rutland, Barre, Burlington). A weak tornado can't be ruled out,
but chances are very low and not the main concern, by far. Areas
in far southern Essex County, NY and southern Addison/Orange
Counties southward have the best chances of seeing any strong to
severe thunderstorms, with timing roughly 4 to 8 pm. See the
latest Mesoscale Discussion from SPC for additional details.
Please stay tuned for any watches or warnings, especially if you
have outdoor plans. Storms should wane after 8 pm, though
showers will likely linger through midnight or so.

Ridging builds in on Friday as the upper trough exits to the
east. A few showers can't be ruled out, especially over
central/southern VT, but overall expect it'll be a dry day with
skies becoming partly to mostly sunny. Highs will be in the 60s
to near 70F, followed by overnight lows in the 40s Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Low pressure will slide by well to our north Saturday
and Saturday night, dragging a cold front along in its wake.
South/southwest flow will increase ahead of the front, allowing
temperatures to warm into the 60s and 70s. Winds may have just
enough easterly component across eastern VT that could keep areas
east of the Greens from achieving full warming potential, perhaps
just in the low to mid 60s. Still, expect it should be a fairly
pleasant day. Winds will become breezy due to a 50+kt 850mb jet
moving overhead, especially in the St Lawrence and northern
Champlain Valleys where gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible.

The cold front approaches from the west late in the day and then
crosses the forecast area Saturday night into early Sunday. As such,
expect we'll have yet another period of non-diurnal temperatures,
with temperatures rising or holding steady overnight, then falling
or holding steady on Sunday under strong cold air advection.
Widespread showers will likewise spread from west to east
along/ahead of the front, with the bulk occurring overnight Saturday
night and through Sunday morning. Moisture will be ample ahead of
the front with PWATs approaching 1.50 inch, or near/above the 99th
percentile. This So while instability will be lacking to poor
frontal passage timing and a warm layer around 850mb, still expect
there could be some briefly heavy rain as the front moves through.
Much drier air will follow the front, ending the bulk of the showers
by early Sunday afternoon. However, some isolated to scattered
activity may linger into the evening hours as a secondary front
crosses the region. As mentioned above, expect temperatures to be
much colder than the previous day (topping out in the 40s and 50s),
and likely dropping in the afternoon, especially on the higher
summits. Therefore, any lingering showers could mix with and/or
change over to snow by late in the day, though any daytime
accumulation would be limited to 2500 ft or higher. Total rainfall
will range from around 0.50 inch to around 1 inch in most areas.
Winds will become blustery out of the W/NW, only adding to the
chilly, raw feel of the day.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Following the passage of a cold front, temperatures are
expected to plummet for the start of the upcoming work week. By
Monday morning, temperatures are expected to fall below freezing
across all of Vermont and northern New York with temperatures only
rebounding into the mid 30s to lower 40s Monday afternoon. It'll be
a start contrast compared to the above normal temperatures that we
are currently experiencing. Temperatures are expected to slowly
moderate throughout the week with temperatures warming back into the
low to mid 50s by Thursday while lows remain within a few degrees
plus or minus of freezing each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...A batch of showers, and a thunderstorm
south of KSLK, are shifting east across the region. Any thunder
will be most likely at KRUT and KMPV this evening through 03z.
Visibilities in any thunderstorm or downpour could fall to
1.5-2.5 SM, but largely remaining at or above 4 SM for most
locations. Behind rain, ceilings are expected to begin lowering,
and persistence suggests fog is likely again tonight.
Probabilistic data suggests introducing IFR ceilings or
visibilities in TEMPOs after 03z, and then more likely from
06z-13z. After that point, sunshine and lower humidities will
lift the cloud layer towards 1500-3000 ft agl, and then finally
VFR between 15z-18z. Winds will be variable or briefly gusting
to 25-30 mph in convection for the next few hours. Behind
precipitation, winds will shift northwest to north at 5 to 10
knots, with a few gusts possible at KBTV to 15 knots.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Clay/Hastings
AVIATION...Haynes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

NYZ029-030-034-035-087-VTZ005-008>011-017>021-171830-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Western Chittenden-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Chittenden-
Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-Eastern Windsor-
228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Slight Risk for Severe Weather (2 out of 5) exists across portions
of southern Vermont and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for the
Adirondacks and central Vermont today for the potential for damaging
wind gusts and isolated large hail. Briefly heavy rainfall is also
possible, though flooding is not anticipated. The best chance for
any strong storms will be along and south of a Newcomb, NY to
Middlebury to Fairlee, VT line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ026>028-031-VTZ001>004-006-007-016-171830-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Western Clinton-Grand Isle-Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Lamoille-
Caledonia-Eastern Franklin-
228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, northeast
Vermont and northwest Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
442 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VTZ011-019-020-162130-
Eastern Rutland VT-Western Rutland VT-Western Windsor VT-
442 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RUTLAND AND CENTRAL
WINDSOR COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 442 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Poultney Village, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rutland, Killington, Poultney Village, Tinmouth, Shrewsbury, Rutland
City, Middletown Springs, Wallingford, Mt. Holly, Lake St. Catherine,
Rutland - Southern Vermont Airport, Poultney, Plymouth, Bridgewater,
Mendon, Clarendon, West Rutland, Ira, Fair Haven, and Mount Holly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4345 7325 4353 7325 4353 7324 4354 7325
      4356 7326 4358 7328 4358 7330 4360 7329
      4361 7330 4368 7263 4343 7268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 266DEG 32KT 4352 7332

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Myskowski

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
658 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Cranberry Lake          44.23N 74.83W
04/16/2026                   St. Lawrence       NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees down along Mill Road near Silver Lake.

&&

Clay

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
728 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

NYZ030-034-035-170000-
Southern Franklin NY-Western Essex NY-Eastern Essex NY-
728 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
CENTRAL ESSEX COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

At 727 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
North Elba, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Placid, Saranac Lake, Jay, Elizabethtown, North Elba, Keene,
Lewis, Wilmington, Moriah, Westport, St Armand, Willsboro,
Chesterfield, Essex, Harrietstown, North Hudson, Newcomb, Upper Jay,
Ray Brook, and Mount Van Hoevenberg.

This includes Interstate 87 between mile markers 106 and 131.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4414 7413 4433 7412 4441 7345 4407 7350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 270DEG 35KT 4424 7396

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Myskowski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
816 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

NYZ034-035-VTZ005-009-017-018-170100-
Western Essex NY-Eastern Essex NY-Eastern Chittenden VT-
Western Chittenden VT-Western Addison VT-Eastern Addison VT-
816 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL ESSEX...
NORTHWESTERN ADDISON AND SOUTHERN CHITTENDEN COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM
EDT...

At 816 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Westport, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Westport Village, Middlebury, Port Henry, Vergennes, Weybridge,
Monkton Ridge, Monkton, Monkton Boro, New Haven, Addison, Starksboro,
Ferrisburg, Charlotte, Waltham, Bristol, Panton, Mt. Philo State
Park, Huntington, Kingsland Bay State Park, and D A R State Park.

This includes Interstate 87 between mile markers 107 and 126.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Lake Champlain, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4400 7366 4434 7357 4431 7293 4395 7302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 274DEG 29KT 4419 7345

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Clay

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
848 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

NYZ034-035-VTZ003-004-006>011-017>021-170145-
Western Essex NY-Eastern Essex NY-Western Rutland VT-
Western Windsor VT-Washington VT-Western Addison VT-Lamoille VT-
Essex VT-Caledonia VT-Eastern Rutland VT-Eastern Chittenden VT-
Eastern Windsor VT-Orleans VT-Eastern Addison VT-Orange VT-
848 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX...SOUTHEASTERN
LAMOILLE...ORANGE...CALEDONIA...SOUTHERN ORLEANS...ADDISON...SOUTHERN
ESSEX...SOUTHEASTERN CHITTENDEN...RUTLAND...WINDSOR AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

At 848 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Danville to near
Groton to near Starksboro to near Hague. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Outflow driven wind gusts up to 50 mph and embedded hail up
         to a half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Barre, Rutland, Montpelier, Port Henry, Lyndon, St. Johnsbury,
Woodstock, Middlebury, Vergennes, Braintree Hill, Killington,
Waterbury Village, Websterville, Orwell, Worcester, Middlesex,
Marshfield, Ira, Cabot Village, and Mount Holly.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 87 between mile markers 82 and 85, and near mile marker
95.
 Interstate 89 between mile markers 3 and 64.
 Interstate 91 between mile markers 76 and 78, between mile markers
82 and 91, between mile markers 97 and 121, and between mile markers
123 and 139.
 Interstate 93 between mile markers 1 and 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4435 7182 4432 7203 4427 7206 4408 7203
      4399 7212 4381 7218 4340 7268 4345 7325
      4362 7330 4362 7337 4357 7340 4359 7343
      4377 7335 4381 7338 4377 7381 4409 7362
      4435 7276 4456 7249 4454 7157
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 268DEG 40KT 4447 7215 4426 7233 4417 7301 4374
7360

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Haynes