Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
212 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 208 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 208 PM EDT Monday...

1. Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
evening.

2. Drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday with another round of
showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

3. Showers possible on Friday with drier weather expected
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 208 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A warm front lifting north across New York this morning
will be the catalyst for showers and thunderstorm development as we
head into the mid afternoon hours and well into the evening. The
latest high-resolution guidance has slowed the onset of
precipitation into our forecast area until around 5 PM across far
western portions of northern New York with rain and thunderstorms
not entering Vermont until after 8 PM. The best instability doesn't
develop until after 00Z as mid-leve lapse rates begin to steepen.
Anywhere from 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is forecasted to develop
which will be coupled with 40 knots of 0-6km shear. This should help
produce some strong to localized severe thunderstorms and SPC has
placed a marginal risk for severe weather across northern New York
and the northern half of Vermont due to the increasing instability.
The lack of surface convergence should keep the areal coverage low
but it wouldn't be surprising to see some stronger storms following
sunset tonight. In addition, we could see some impressive
instantaneous rainfall rates with PWATS above the 80th percentile so
we can't rule out some ponding of water on roads to localized
flooding. These storms will be moving quickly (40 knots of 0-6
shear) which will mitigate the flood threat but will also help to
move these storms east of the Connecticut river shortly after
midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Outside of a start shower across the Adirondacks or
Green Mountains, quiet and dry weather is expected on both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Weak surface high pressure will try to build north
but will generally be suppressed due to low pressure to our north and
east. Nevertheless, we should see some clearing in the skies midweek
with Wednesday showing partly to mostly sunny skies for the partial
eclipse. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s with winds
generally from the west/northwest at 10 mph or less. Patchy dense
fog will be possible in the favorable river valleys Wednesday
morning given the upcoming rainfall this afternoon, light winds, and
clearing skies.

The next system will move through the region on Thursday as a strong
cold front approaches the region. The frontal timing has slowed
slightly in the last 24 hours with the frontal passage now expected
to be closer to peak heating. This has caused both the AI and
machine learning algorithms to slightly increase the severe
potential for Thursday. We will once again be working with 1000 to
1500 J/kg of ML CAPE and 40 knots of 0-6 km shear which is more than
sufficient to see organized convection capable of producing strong
to locally severe storms.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The upper level low will close off to our east Friday
morning which will help bring some recycled maritime into our region
under an easterly flow regime. This will likely spark additional
rain showers across the northern and western slopes of the Green
Mountains with upslope conditions. However, it seems likely that
most valley locations will generally be on the drier side on Friday.
Deep layer ridging will build across the region late Friday through
the weekend with dry, seasonably cool, and less humid air expected.
Highs should top out in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints dropping
into the 40s each afternoon and plentiful sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...A warm front and weak cold front will bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening with drier conditions late Tuesday. A few of these showers
and storms could produce localized heavy rainfall, but flow will be
progressive enough to keep the cells moving. About 30% chance of
some showers spreading from west to east across northern New York
and Vermont through 00Z Tuesday, becoming more widespread into the
evening. Highest chance overall of precipitation will be from 22Z
Monday through 04Z Tuesday, which could lower visibilities 3-5
miles, briefly lower in any heavier downpours. There is also the
potential for thunderstorms during this period, most likely at
BTV, SLK, MPV, and MSS. With and following these showers and
storms early Tuesday morning, low level moisture is expected to
linger at several sites, and any breaks in clouds could lead to
quick radiational fog. Most likely site for IFR conditions is
SLK from 06Z-13Z Tuesday, though MPV and EFK both have some
potential for cig and vis degradations around this time as well.
Much will depend on the strength of the inversion that develops
in the subsidence behind the storms, and the spots that see
more rainfall from the afternoon/evening storms will be more
likely to have fog, especially those that have clearing skies
and lighter winds. Winds this afternoon and into tonight will be
mainly southwesterly, turning more west-northwesterly Tuesday
morning, following the passage of the cold front. Some brief
LLWS is possible Tuesday morning as winds aloft turn and
increase more quickly than winds at the surface.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
Channeled southerly winds in the 15 to 20 knot range will
continue across much of Lake Champlain through 10 PM. A frontal
passage late this afternoon will yield a quick increase in winds
across the lake with gusts upwards to 30 knots between 7 PM and
10 PM. Waves will generally be in the 1-2 ft range this
afternoon with an increase to 2-3 feet this evening. Winds and
waves will quickly subside after midnight.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Clay
DISCUSSION...Clay
AVIATION...Storm
MARINE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
215 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-111815-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Franklin-
Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-
Eastern Windsor-
215 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

SPC has placed our forecast area under a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Should any severe
thunderstorms materialize, strong to damaging wind gusts will be the
main concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
640 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

NYZ028-031-VTZ001-002-005-016-102345-
Eastern Clinton NY-Western Clinton NY-Western Franklin VT-
Grand Isle VT-Western Chittenden VT-Eastern Franklin VT-
640 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CLINTON...GRAND
ISLE...NORTHWESTERN CHITTENDEN AND WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH
745 PM EDT...

At 638 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Champlain Village to near Dannemora.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mooers Village, Dannemora, Rouses Point, Champlain Village,
Plattsburgh International Airport, Franklin, Champlain, Georgia,
Grand Isle, St. Albans Town, South Alburgh, Alburgh, Alburgh Dunes
State Park, North Hero, Milton, Schuyler Falls, Isle La Motte,
Plattsburgh, Highgate, and Georgia Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Lake Champlain, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4456 7307 4467 7384 4501 7354 4501 7288
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 267DEG 28KT 4505 7350 4478 7378

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Verasamy

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
723 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WNW Alburgh Center    44.96N 73.29W
08/10/2026  M42 MPH          Grand Isle         VT   NWS Employee

&&

MV