Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
609 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 608 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Key Messages:

* Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, with a
  better chance late this evening through tonight.

* There is a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms
  through Monday morning, with the main hazards being damaging
  winds and hail late tonight.

* Mainly dry weather with warming temperatures will prevail
  through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

The morning sounding at BRO showed PWAT at 1.86 inches, above the
90th percentile for early to mid May, meaning there remains an
abundance of moisture across Deep South Texas. The persistent MVFR
cloud deck this morning helps confirm this as well. There is
plenty of CAPE and shear for thunderstorm development and with a
convective temp of 91, and numerous boundaries roaming around,
have bumped POPs up across typical sea breeze locations this
afternoon, working generally inland through the afternoon. CAMs
are again widely varied on convection development timing and
location, but all develop something, lending confidence in at
least a handful of showers and thunderstorms mid to late afternoon
into early evening, especially if the sun can peek out
consistently this afternoon.

A potent frontal system up north is working south this afternoon
into tonight, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms
to Deep South Texas this evening into late tonight. Any Sierra
Madre convection could pair with this front or bring a couple of
storms into Zapata County this evening out ahead of it. SPC has
all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk of
severe weather through tonight, with the best chance occurring
with the frontal boundary late tonight, but highly dependent on
what happens upstream. WPC is also highlighting Zapata, Jim Hogg,
Starr, and western Hidalgo counties with a Marginal (level 1 of 4)
Risk of Excessive Rainfall through tonight, meaning any
persistent showers or thunderstorms could pose a flooding rain
threat.

Overall, confidence is a little lower on severe weather this
afternoon, but expect a couple of thunderstorms mid to late this
afternoon into this evening, with better coverage along the front
tonight. The main hazards would be hail and damaging winds, if any
strong to severe thunderstorms develop, transitioning to more of
a wind threat late tonight into early Monday morning across the
lower Valley, if anything is still hanging tough by then.

The forecast beyond tonight dries out and gradually warms up into
next weekend. There remains a moderate risk of life-threatening
rip currents along the lower Texas coast due to long period swell
into early this week and again next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Through 00z Tuesday....The weather concern for the terminals over
the next 12 hours or so will be the chance for showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front this evening and again along
the cold front overnight tonight into Monday morning.

Latest GOES-19 visible satellite imagery, radar, and sfc obs
indicated VFR conditions at all of the TAF sites under a SCT-BKN
deck of cumulus clouds. Towering cumulonimbus clouds associated
with a strong thunderstorm was located so the southwest of MFE and
cold impact the site within the next couple of hours and it
continues to move towards the northeast. Additional showers and
thunderstorms could develop this evening and shift eastward
towards HRL and BRO. We'll continue to monitor trends. For now,
have VCTS and TEMPO groups for MFE to account for the developing
thunderstorm just to the southwest. Additionally, I have Prob30
groups for all the TAF sites for tonight.

Any showers or storms this evening and/or through the overnight
hours into Monday morning will be capable of briefly reducing
cigs/vsbys down to IFR/LIFR levels.

Southeast winds 10-15 kts this evening will trend towards light and
variable tonight. Behind to cold front winds will shift out of
the northeast with speeds between 5-15 kts on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Southeasterly winds give way to the next frontal boundary late
tonight into Tuesday. This briefly elevates seas and winds, before
more favorable marine conditions return mid week into next
weekend. There remains a chance of showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms into Monday, especially along the front tonight, with
drier and more favorable conditions the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  87  74  87 /  40  30   0   0
HARLINGEN               74  86  70  86 /  50  30   0   0
MCALLEN                 76  87  73  88 /  50  40   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  86  72  87 /  60  40  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  82  77  81 /  40  20   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  85  74  85 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
222 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     Hail             1 SSE Roma              26.41N 99.00W
05/09/2026  M0.75 Inch       Starr              TX   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from 1 ESE
            Roma. Public reported hail up to 0.75 of an
            inch on Bluebird St in Roma, TX at 7:55 AM.

0920 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW San Juan          26.18N 98.16W
05/09/2026                   Hidalgo            TX   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            .75 S San Juan. Public reported large tree
            limb down near Lincoln and Nebraska roads in
            San Juan, TX.

1007 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Harlingen         26.16N 97.68W
05/09/2026                   Cameron            TX   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            2.5 SSE Harlingen. Public reported tall
            signs, vehicles, and canopied buildings
            damaged outside of a credit union and home
            improvement store around 2 miles SSE of
            Harlingen.

1007 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 W San Benito          26.14N 97.70W
05/09/2026                   Cameron            TX   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            3.5 S Harlingen. Public reported downed
            telephone poles on S. Ed Carey Dr. Radar
            estimated time.

1019 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Harlingen          26.18N 97.66W
05/09/2026                   Cameron            TX   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            2.5 ESE Harlingen. Public reported a large
            tree snapped in half near Mariposa LN and
            Treasure Hills Blvd southeast of Harlingen,
            TX.

1025 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 ESE San Benito        26.11N 97.57W
05/09/2026                   Cameron            TX   Emergency Mngr

            *** 2 INJ ***
            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 4
            ESE San Benito. Corrects previous tstm wnd
            dmg report from 4 ESE San Benito. Emergency
            Management reported a destroyed mobile home
            with 2 injuries, no fatalities, 4 miles ESE
            of San Benito, TX. Radar estimated time.

1030 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Los Fresnos         26.11N 97.49W
05/09/2026                   Cameron            TX   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            2.5 NNW Los Fresnos. Public shared video of
            roof being blown off of home in Laureles, TX
            at 10:30 AM.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
336 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

TXZ250-102100-
Brooks TX-
336 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN BROOKS COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM CDT...

At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Falfurrias Junior High School, or near Falfurrias, moving west at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Falfurrias, Falfurrias Junior High School, Falfurrias Fire Station,
Cantu Addition, and Hidalgo City Park.

This includes US Highway 281 between mile markers 712 and 720.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2726 9816 2711 9808 2691 9835 2705 9842
      2706 9842 2720 9849 2724 9849 2724 9851
      2725 9851 2725 9852 2726 9853
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 069DEG 8KT 2717 9823

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

23-ATE