Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
611 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Key Messages:

 * There is a continued Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of isolated
   severe thunderstorms and a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of
   isolated flash flooding through tonight into early Saturday across
   Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and western Hidalgo counties.

 * These risks remain conditional, but if severe thunderstorms
   develop, there is a 5% probability of large (1+ inch) hail,
   damaging winds (60+ mph) and excessive rainfall.

 * A moderate risk of rip currents will continue into this weekend.

 * Minor to Moderate (Levels 1 of 4 and 2 of 4) Heat Risks through
   the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

As mentioned for tonight, the severe weather threat remains marginal
for portions of the mid Valley into the Ranchlands. Most CAMs
continue try to develop Sierra Madre convection into tonight that
eventually makes it way into Deep South Texas. Generally these
models have been highly variable, some bringing in convection by
midnight to the Rio Grande Plains, and others more near daybreak
closer to the mid to lower Valley. So far, any development has
dissipated before reaching the Rio Grande. PWATs this evening
from the sounding at BRO have fallen to 1.68 inches, though
forecast models continue to show higher PWATs near 2 inches across
The upper Valley into the Ranchlands. If any showers or
thunderstorms develop and make it to Deep South Texas, heavy rain
will be possible. Confidence in both severe weather and/or
flooding rainfall remains low to medium.

A mid-level trough will continue to move eastward through Texas this
weekend, with high pressure returning by early next week. At the
surface the stalled frontal boundary is slowly working its way north
before finally exiting the region on Saturday. Rain chances will
continue through Saturday afternoon with conditions drying out
Saturday night into Sunday.

Another front will move south through Deep South Texas on Sunday
night which will once again increase rain chances Sunday night into
Monday morning.

Temperatures will be generally above normal through the forecast
period, though a slight cool off to near or just slightly below
normal for Monday and Tuesday in the wake of a cold front. Minor
to Moderate Heat Risks are expected across Deep South Texas
through the weekend.

There remains a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents into
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A deteriorating complex of thunderstorms will continue to move
from west to east across the region through the next few hours,
producing a VCTS at the aerodromes. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR will
prevail with light winds and generally mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through the
forecast period. Wave heights of 2 to 4 inches are expected with 6 to
7 second periods.  There does remain a chance for showers and
thunderstorms tonight into Saturday morning that could lead to
locally enhanced winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  77  91  77 /  20  10  10  30
HARLINGEN               89  74  92  75 /  20   0  10  30
MCALLEN                 90  76  93  76 /  20  10  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         90  75  94  74 /  30  10  10  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  78  84  78 /  20  10  10  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  76  89  77 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
733 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

TXZ252-091315-
Starr TX-
733 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN STARR COUNTY
THROUGH 815 AM CDT...

At 732 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fronton, or 9 miles west of Roma, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rio Grande City, Roma, Escobares, El Sauz, La Rosita, Garciasville,
Los Alvarez, Fort Ringgold County Park, Garceno, and Starr County
Sheriffs Office.

This includes US Highway 83 between mile markers 794 and 826.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2658 9916 2659 9871 2627 9872 2630 9872
      2631 9876 2632 9874 2633 9875 2633 9878
      2637 9880 2635 9890 2639 9893 2637 9895
      2640 9896 2639 9901 2641 9904 2640 9908
      2643 9911 2647 9909 2650 9910 2654 9917
TIME...MOT...LOC 1232Z 277DEG 28KT 2642 9915

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

60-BE

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