Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Brownsville, TX

931 
WWUS84 KBRO 230002
RFWBRO

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
602 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

...Red Flag Warning Expiring...

.Wind speeds and relative humidity values have improved across the
area and the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire.

TXZ249>255-353-230115-
/O.EXP.KBRO.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260223T0000Z/
Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Northern Hidalgo-
602 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR JIM 
HOGG, STARR, BROOKS, HIDALGO, AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF CAMERON, 
WILLACY, AND KENEDY COUNTIES...

Wind speeds across the area have decreased below Red Flag Warning
criteria and relative humidity values will recover slightly
overnight. As such the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to
expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
519 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 512 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across
  the ranchlands today and all of inland Deep South Texas on
  Sunday. Additional fire weather concerns continue mid to late
  week.

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions are expected this evening
  through Sunday, including life-threatening rip currents, high
  surf, and minor coastal flooding or runup.

- Below normal temperatures are expected between Sunday morning
  through Tuesday morning before above normal temperatures return
  into March.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

The initial wind shift with the cold front is working slowly
through Deep South Texas, with the better push behind the front
expected by late afternoon across the ranchlands and this evening
through the Rio Grande Valley. Expect drier air to continue to
filter south through Sunday afternoon, with temperatures topping
off into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, before falling below
normal Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. Monday will be the
coldest morning, with upper 30s to low 40s across the ranchlands
and mid to upper 40s across the RGV. Temperatures warm above
normal Tuesday afternoon and steamroll into March at 10-15 degrees
above normal.

There remains a very low (around 15 percent or less) chance of
rain this afternoon and nearly zero chance of any rainfall through
the remainder of February. Unfortunately, RH values along and
west of US281 generally slip below 30 percent every afternoon
through the period, with RH values below 20 percent on Thursday
afternoon behind the next dryline or weak frontal boundary.

Fire weather concerns continue to be the main hazard threat
inland. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect this afternoon into
this evening across most of the ranchlands and a Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Sunday for all of inland portions of
Deep South Texas with Red Flag Warnings and additional Fire Danger
Statements likely issued this evening due to low humidity and
gusty winds. Additional fire weather products may be needed mid to
late week.

Along the beaches of the lower Texas coast, expect conditions to
deteriorate this evening, behind the front, and continue into
Sunday, with a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents, High
Surf Advisory, and some minor coastal flooding, especially near
high tide Sunday morning. Additional beach concerns are likely
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Northeastly to northerly winds (around 10-15 knots, gusting to
15-20 knots) and clearing skies continue this evening in wake of
the cold front that moved through this afternoon. VFR conditions
are expected for the remainder of the TAF cycle despite periods of
overcast mid-level clouds over the next several hours. Overnight,
am expecting for northerly winds to increase to near 15-20 knots,
gusting to 25-30 knots, possibly decreasing a bit within a couple
hours either side of sunrise, before picking back up to similar
speeds (as tonight) during the morning and early afternoon hours
on Sunday. Winds gradually decrease throughout throughout the
remainder of Sunday afternoon, turning northeasterly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Marine fog and haze is expected to gradually improve into this
afternoon, so will let the Dense Marine Fog Advisory expire. The
cold front brings a solid push of northerly winds this evening,
leading to a Small Craft Advisory across the bay and nearshore
Gulf waters through Sunday and a Gale Warning for offshore Gulf
waters through Sunday morning, with SCA conditions following into
Sunday night. Southerly winds return Monday night, but increase
into Wednesday, allowing a brief improvement Monday into Tuesday,
then SCA conditions return Wednesday into Thursday. A brief
northerly wind shift arrives late Thursday into early Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

With abundant cured fuels and worsening drought conditions, now
into D4, fire weather concerns are mounting across Deep South
Texas through the remainder of February. There is a Fire Danger
Statement in effect for Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Brooks counties
until 9 PM this evening.

Behind the cold front, RH values drop this evening across the
brush country with poor recovery overnight. By daybreak Sunday,
most inland locations are expected to below 40 percent and drop
below 30 percent by noon, with most locations along and west of
US281 falling below 20 percent by mid-afternoon and portions of
Zapata and Jim Hogg counties potentially into single-digit
humidity values. Gusty northerly winds will combine with these low
RH values to produce elevated to critical fire weather conditions
Sunday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Sunday,
with Red Flag Warnings and Fire Danger Statements likely to be
issued this evening.

Increased winds on Tuesday and Wednesday and drier air arriving
Thursday into Friday may drive additional fire weather products.

All the ingredients are there and generally will be all week, fire
prevention messaging should be a top focus until drenching
rainfall occurs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             57  69  48  71 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               50  70  44  71 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 53  74  48  75 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         50  73  43  74 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      59  65  58  66 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     55  67  51  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for TXZ248>255-353.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

     High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for
     TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Sunday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155.

     Gale Warning until noon CST Sunday for GMZ170-175.

&&

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...65-Irish