Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Brownsville, TX

749 
WGUS74 KBRO 200929
FFSBRO

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
429 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

TXC505-200939-
/O.CAN.KBRO.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-260620T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Zapata TX-
429 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY HAS BEEN
REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

&&

LAT...LON 2709 9897 2709 9931 2727 9931 2727 9897

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1251 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

 - Slightly cooler, but still dangerous, heat indices and moderate
   to major heat risks (levels 2 and 3 of 4) continue into the
   beginning of next week, with SPSs for heat indices of 108 to
   111 F still possible, especially on Sunday and Monday.

 - WPC includes the southeastern and eastern portions of Jim Hogg
   and Starr counties and all areas eastward within a Marginal
   Risk (level 1 of 4) of possible isolated flash flooding as well
   as a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of possible scattered flash
   flooding for areas further west tonight in addition to a
   Marginal Risk of isolated flash flooding for all of deep south
   Texas on Saturday.

 - Drier conditions resume on Sunday along with seasonably hot
   temperatures and minor (level 1 of 4) to moderate heat risks by
   Wednesday as afternoon heat indices cool slightly to around
   100-110 F.

 - A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
   Saturday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

We'll start off by focusing on the heat, which has been extreme over
the last several days. Although temperatures are likely to remain
seasonably hot in comparison to this past Wednesday and Thursday,
maximizing and minimizing in the mid/upper 90s and upper 70s/lower
80s, respectively, relative humidity values remain very moist into
the beginning of next week, with widespread moderate heat risks
likely through Tuesday. Therefore, SPSs for heat indices of 108-111
F are certainly possible, especially on Sunday and Monday when
clouds clear and major heat risks expand over portions of the
coastal counties. A Heat Advisory is not fully out of the question
as well. The potential for an SPS on Saturday is still up in the air
at this time and will be dependent on how convection tonight plays
out; an SPS may be issued either late tonight or Saturday morning.
Otherwise, afternoon heat indices generally trend cooler by the
middle of next week, ranging from 100 to 110 F.

Now for the weather pattern: a weak mid/upper level shortwave and
trough extending into northeastern Mexico and south Texas, wedged
between a high pressure aloft over the eastern Pacific and over the
Gulf, have led to a broken line of showers and thunderstorms slowly
moving eastward over Zapata and into the Upper RGV and Northern
Ranchlands, producing heavy rain. A few stronger thunderstorms have
led to SPSs over the Corpus Christi CWA as well as portions of
Zapata and Jim Hogg counties this evening, for strong winds up to 40
mph and the potential for pea-size hail, resulting from better
forcing aloft. The Latest HRRR runs continue this activity further
east before largely dissipating late tonight as it approaches the US-
281 corridor. Yet, there is still a chance, though low confidence,
that convection could keep developing further east and south
overnight; low to medium (30-60%) chances of rain further north
and west decrease overnight, though expand to a low (15-30%)
chance across most of deep south Texas by Saturday morning. Due to
high PWATs (> 2.0 in.)in place, heavy rain is likely to continue
for much of tonight. Therefore, WPC has expanded the Slight Risk
of possible scattered flash flooding tonight to as far east as the
northern and western half of Jim Hogg and the far western
portions of Starr counties as well as a Marginal Risk of possible
isolated flash flooding eastward to the coast.

On Saturday, a plume of deep, tropical moisture moves over the CWA,
surging PWATs to 2.0-2.5 in., with pockets of 2.7+, possible.
Although weaker bulk shear values are anticipated, lowering heights,
weakened subsidence aloft could help to generate scattered pop-up
showers and thunderstorms, all capable of producing heavy rain; WPC
highlights a Marginal Risk of possible isolated flash flooding
across all of deep south Texas on Saturday from excessive and heavy
rainfall. Still dependent on how convection evolves overnight,
outflow boundaries could generate more numerous convection
along/east of US-281, where there is a low to medium (30-50%) chance
of rain and slightly lower elsewhere (20-40%). Chances of rain
gradually diminish east to west throughout Saturday evening.

High pressure aloft takes over by Sunday, leading to drier
conditions, with chances of rain below 10% through next Friday.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Light southeast to south winds and VFR ceilings prevail across
much of Deep South Texas early this morning. A mix of VFR/MVFR
conditions will likely continue overnight with full VFR conditions
expected to return mid to late morning. There is a low to medium
(20-40%) chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The latest CAM models, especially the HRRR, suggest that some
showers and thunderstorms may develop mid to late morning. Brief
MVFR conditions will be possible in and around any convection.
Light southeast to south winds overnight are forecast to increase
and become moderate in the afternoon. MVFR conditions may return
late in the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are likely to
continue through at least Monday night as a tightened pressure
gradient results in moderate to fresh, occasionally strong,
southeasterly winds and moderate (4-6 ft) seas. Winds may ease
just a bit into the middle of next week before picking back up
towards and over the weekend. Aside from a low (15-30%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms late tonight, continuing through
Saturday night, dry conditions prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             93  83  94  83 /  30  10  10   0
HARLINGEN               93  80  95  80 /  40  20   0   0
MCALLEN                 94  82  96  82 /  40  30  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  79  98  80 /  40  30  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  84  89  84 /  30  10  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     91  82  93  82 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...63-KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1016 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

TXZ249-200400-
Jim Hogg TX-
1016 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JIM HOGG COUNTY
THROUGH 1100 PM CDT...

At 1016 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Escobas, or 11 miles northeast of Bustamante, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hebbronville, Las Lomitas, Gruy Stadium, Randado, Thompsonville, Jim
Hogg County Airport, Hebbronville High School, South Fork Estates,
and Hebbronville Border Patrol Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2734 9855 2734 9852 2727 9852 2726 9853
      2702 9895 2727 9895 2727 9880 2735 9880
      2735 9879 2736 9863 2734 9862 2734 9859
      2736 9859 2736 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 219DEG 14KT 2712 9898

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

69-HK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1019 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

TXZ248-200400-
Zapata TX-
1019 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY
THROUGH 1100 PM CDT...

At 1019 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Lopeno, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lopeno, New Falcon, Morales-Sanchez, Falcon Lake Estates, Siesta
Shores, Falcon Shores, Black Bass, and Zapata--Medina.

This includes US Highway 83 between mile markers 768 and 788.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2694 9924 2687 9897 2662 9910 2657 9917
      2662 9918 2667 9920 2669 9921 2672 9921
      2675 9924 2679 9924 2682 9926 2685 9927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0319Z 199DEG 21KT 2668 9924

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

69-HK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1036 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

TXZ248-200415-
Zapata TX-
1036 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY
THROUGH 1115 PM CDT...

At 1035 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thompsonville, or 18 miles west of Hebbronville, moving north at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Escobas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2727 9896 2700 9895 2725 9929 2727 9927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 189DEG 15KT 2726 9898

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

69-HK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1101 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

TXZ248-200445-
Zapata TX-
1101 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY
THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...

At 1101 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Morales-Sanchez, or near Zapata, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Zapata, Lopeno, Medina, Zapata High School, Zapata County Fire
Department, Zapata Middle School, Siesta Shores, Zapata County Public
Library, Morales-Sanchez, and Zapata County Airport.

This includes US Highway 83 between mile markers 766 and 788.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2703 9924 2696 9895 2688 9895 2659 9913
      2657 9917 2662 9918 2667 9920 2672 9921
      2675 9924 2679 9924 2682 9926 2685 9927
      2686 9929
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 197DEG 13KT 2685 9916

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

69-HK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1135 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

TXZ248-200515-
Zapata TX-
1135 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY
THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1135 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Escobas, or 10 miles north of Bustamante, moving
north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Escobas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2727 9896 2726 9895 2703 9895 2703 9918
      2727 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 179DEG 23KT 2715 9909

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

69-HK