Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Brownsville, TX

591 
WGUS74 KBRO 160410
FFSBRO

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1110 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

TXC215-160420-
/O.EXP.KBRO.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260616T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hidalgo TX-
1110 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1115 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HIDALGO COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT Thursday for a
portion of Deep South Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2606 9810 2627 9807 2627 9786 2606 9787
      2607 9788 2606 9793 2605 9794 2606 9795
      2605 9797 2607 9798 2606 9801 2607 9801
      2607 9803 2604 9804 2605 9806 2604 9808
      2605 9807 2607 9808 2606 9809

$$

BE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
652 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

* Heavy Rain with the potential for significant to catastrophic
  flash flooding is likely for Deep South Texas the rest of today
  through Wednesday, with rainfall rates between 2 to 5 inches an
  hour possible.  A Flood Watch is in effect into Thursday morning.

* Most areas should expect to receive between 5-10 inches of rain
  between now and Thursday morning, with some localized areas
  receiving 12+ inches.  Avoid unnecessary travel, as flooding
  conditions can escalate quickly.

* The National Hurricane Center has increased chances of
  development off the Texas Coast from 30% to 50% for the next 7
  days as today and tomorrow's convection moves offshore.

* Heat Risk continues through the remainder of the week.  The worst
  day will be Thursday, with Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk Expected
  and Heat Advisories likely needed.  Some areas could also reach
  Heat Advisory criteria Wednesday afternoon.

* A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents will continue through tomorrow.
  This risk could potentially increase throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Heavy rain with the potential for catastrophic flash flooding is
highly possible in the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas over
the next few days.  Avoid unnecessary travel today through Wednesday
if possible, as roadways can become quickly flooded in areas where
heavy rainfall occurs (as has already been observed in portions of
the central Rio Grande Valley this morning).

The Weather Prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas under a
Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall for the remainder
of today into this evening, and keeps the Moderate Risk for the
eastern portion of the CWA tomorrow.  The Western portion of the CWA
is under a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of excessive rainfall
tomorrow, and the Coastal Counties remain under a Slight Risk of
Excessive rainfall on Wednesday.  Rainfall rates of anywhere between
2 to 5 inches per hour are possible with these showers and
thunderstorms, and we are likely to see areas of training convection
(ie, the same areas receiving multiple rounds of heavy rain) due to
the overrunning nature of the convective setup.

A very slow-moving cold front remains draped over Central Texas this
afternoon, and the air remains richly saturated with very high PWATs
expected (over 2.5 inches in some areas), due to a combination of
upper level tropical moisture from Pacific storm remnants and rich
surface moisture being advected from a warm Gulf.  In addition,
there is the presence of a mid to upper level low that is expected
to move directly across the area over the next few days along with a
surface trough, which will add to the instability and the rain
potential. Southerly surface flow is expected to overrun the front
and surface trough, which should create areas of widespread training
rainfall over Deep South Texas over the next few days.

Rain chances will remain high to very high (80 to 100%) through
tomorrow evening before the threat begins to slowly move offshore.
Rain chances will decrease to low to moderate (30-60%) tomorrow
night into Wednesday but the flooding potential will still persist
due to over-saturated soil. A Flood Watch Remains in effect into
Thursday morning.

The most likely rainfall amounts between now and Thursday morning
will be between 5 to 10 inches, with some isolated areas receiving
up to 12 inches.  There is ongoing convection which has already
caused flooding issues in the middle Rio Grande Valley, with some
areas near Weslaco and Progreso already receiving up to 4 to 6
inches this morning. Heavier convection is expected to develop later
this evening in the Western Ranchlands counties and slowly spread
eastward overnight into tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Areas that
already received rainfall today will be particularly prone to
flash flooding, as the ground is already highly saturated (with
some areas still having standing water) in these areas due to this
morning's convection.

The National Hurricane Center has also increased the chances of
tropical development just off the Texas Coast from 30% to 50% for
the next 7 days. Confidence is increasing that inland convection
that moves offshore over the next few days could briefly develop
into a tropical system as an inland trough moves offshore. There is
a 40% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, and a 50% chance of
formation over the next 7 days. If this chance materializes, we
could see potential development offshore as soon as Wednesday into
Thursday, most likely impacting areas to our north and east, but
exact impacts and locations are still unknown at this time. This
will continue to be monitored.

Heat Risk will be a little less pronounced during ongoing
convection tomorrow, though still a bit of a concern. However,
Major Heat Risk (level 3 of 4) will be possible on Thursday as the
rain begins to move eastward and skies become more sunny. Some
areas could reach Heat Advisory criteria as soon as Wednesday
afternoon (which will mostly be Moderate, with some small pockets
of Major Heat Risk). This Heat Risk concern continues through the
weekend, though Thursday appears the be the most impactful day.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents is also expected at
area beaches through tomorrow.  This could increase later this week,
along with beach hazards depending how inland convection behaves
once it moves over the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Moderate southeast winds and multi-layered clouds prevail across
Deep South Texas early this evening. Radar currently indicates a
cluster of scattered convection near Rio Grande City and west of
MFR. This showers and thunderstorms are expected to track eastward
and impact local aerodromes, especially MFE, later this evening.
Additional convection may reach HRL and BRO after 03Z, Therefore,
will include TEMPO wording during this time. Periods of scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue
overnight into Tuesday. Light to moderate southeast winds will
prevail through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Conditions will become increasingly adverse tonight into tomorrow as
low pressure moves over the area. Small Craft Advisories could be
needed tomorrow afternoon, and could be also needed
intermittently through Friday as the trough moves offshore,
increasing the pressure gradient and wave heights. Conditions
could slightly improve for the weekend, but Small Craft Exercise
Caution may still be needed through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  85  77  92 /  70  90  60  40
HARLINGEN               76  83  74  92 /  80  90  60  30
MCALLEN                 77  83  77  94 / 100  90  40  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         75  84  74  94 /  90  90  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  85  80  89 /  70  80  70  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  85  76  92 /  70  90  70  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ248>255-351-353>355-
     451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...63-KC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
543 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     Flood            2 NW Rio Grande City    26.39N 98.85W
06/15/2026                   Starr              TX   Law Enforcement

            Law Enforcement reported flooded streets
            near FM3167 and Eisenhower in Rio Grande
            City, noting multiple side streets flooded.

&&