Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

609 
WWUS51 KBOX 162146
SVSBOX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
546 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

MAC009-162154-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-260716T2145Z/
Essex MA-
546 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
545 PM EDT...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

Additional severe thunderstorms are expected to enter Essex County 
in the next few minutes.

LAT...LON 4286 7085 4287 7082 4283 7081 4281 7087
      4280 7083 4282 7082 4280 7079 4270 7073
      4272 7061 4263 7053 4252 7077 4265 7112
      4274 7126 4274 7118 4279 7118 4282 7114
      4281 7107 4286 7103 4289 7092
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 299DEG 66KT 4241 6983 

$$

EM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
314 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few brief spot showers possible across northern MA into mid-
  evening. Otherwise...dry and pleasant through Fri night outside
  of the wildfire smoke this evening. Lows mainly in the 50s to the
  lower 60s. Highs Fri mainly in the lower to middle 80s.

- Chances for beneficial showers and thunderstorms on the uptake for
  Saturday PM into the overnight period.

- A cooler start to the work week with unsettled conditions
  through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A few brief spot showers possible across northern MA
into mid-evening. Otherwise...dry and pleasant through Fri night
outside of the wildfire smoke this evening. Lows mainly in the 50s to
the lower 60s. Highs Fri mainly in the lower to middle 80s.

A cold front will cross the region this evening. However...the lack
of low level moisture coupled with the main shortwave forcing
passing to our north will keep most of us dry. A few brief spot
showers may survive into northern MA and perhaps the remote risk for
a rumble of thunder in far northeast MA. Otherwise...generally a
dry/very pleasant weather through Friday night. We will have to deal
with some more smoke moving into the region through late
afternoon...But the worst of it will likely stay to our southwest.
And the good news is that it will get shoved into the mid-Atlantic
after midnight and will not be an issue for Fri.

High pressure builds across the region on Friday behind tonight/s
cold frontal passage. This high pressure system will shift east of
us Friday night...But we will maintain dry/pleasant weather. Highs
on Friday will mainly be in the lower to middle 80s with plenty of
sunshine and comfortable humidity. Lows tonight and Friday night
will mainly be in the 50s to the lower 60s with middle 60s in the
urban heat island of Boston.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Chances for beneficial showers and thunderstorms on
the uptake for Saturday PM into the overnight period.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase heading into
the weekend as a surface low approaches Saturday, bringing prolonged
southwesterly flow and surging PWATs. Latest guidance suite has
increased confidence in PWATs over 2.0", with some as high as 3.0",
which lends favor to some heavy downpours developing overnight.
ECMWF and CMC ensembles indicate a 60-80% chance of at least 0.5" of
QPF (mostly across the southern coastal areas and up into central CT
and RI), while the GFS ensemble is trending those higher percentiles
off our southern shores and further north into northern New England.
Southern New England is currently in a Marginal (1/4) risk for flash
flooding, but discussion has started with neighboring offices (and
will continue with the next forecast cycle) on potentially
increasing that risk to a Sight (2/4), particularly across the
southern coastal areas of CT and RI given the relatively high
consensus in the model guidance that some heavier bands could
develop across those areas.

Instability profiles continue to look relatively weak, but CSU
Machine Learning probabilities continue to indicate low (5-15%)
chances that some storms could turn severe.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A cooler start to the work week with unsettled
conditions through the middle of next week.

A cooler airmass moves in Sunday once the cold front pushes
offshore, with temperatures making a return to seasonable norms...
in the low to mid 80s through at least the middle of next week. A
brief spell of drier conditions is possible Monday as high pressure
builds somewhere over the Appalachian region. Chances for showers
then increase again for the middle of next week as a surface low
moves east across Ontario and a trailing cold front sweeps through
the mid-Atlantic region into New England.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

Tonight through Friday night...High confidence.

VFR through Friday night except for areas of smoke this evening and
perhaps a few brief spot showers across northern MA. We will be on
the northeast edge of the smoke...so not sure visibility will be
reduced that much but may see a period of MVFR vsbys with the
greatest risk of reductions southwest of a KBDL to KPVD line. This
smoke should be shoved into the mid-Atlantic after midnight into Fri
behind this evening/s cold front.

W wind gusts 25+ knots diminish this evening. NW winds 10 knots or
less overnight into Friday morning before they shift to the SW by
mid-late Friday afternoon. A few hours of sea breeze conditions are
also possible Friday afternoon along portions of the immediate
coast.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Main risk of MVFR vsbys in
smoke will be southwest of the terminal this evening...But can not
rule out the low risk for it briefly occurring at KBOS.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. We may see some MVFR vsbys
flirt with the terminal this evening before pushing southwest.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night through Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Friday night...High confidence.

Gusty near shore small craft W wind gusts will diminish this evening
and shift to the NW behind the cold front. Otherwise...high pressure
builds in from the west behind this evening/s cold front keeping
winds/seas below small craft advisory thresholds.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for CTZ002>004.
MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MAZ002>024-
     026.
RI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

DISCUSSION...Frank/McMinn
AVIATION...Frank/McMinn
MARINE...Frank/McMinn