Alert archive / Rhode Island / River Flood Warnings in 2026
River Flood Warning 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA
NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this river flood warning at Mar 16, 2026, 11:45 AM EDT for Kent County, Providence County, Rhode Island. It took effect at Mar 16, 2026, 7:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 21 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 16, 2026, 11:45 AM EDT (15:45 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 16, 2026, 7:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Apr 6, 2026, 11:45 AM EDT
- In force
- 21 days
- Issued by
- NWS Boston/Norton, MA
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Kent County, RI, Providence County, RI
The radar
The Boston radar (KBOX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Pawtuxet River at Cranston (CRAR1).
- Action stage
- 8 ft
- Minor stage
- 9 ft
- Moderate stage
- 11 ft
- Major stage
- 13 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 01116500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
545
WGUS41 KBOX 161545
FLWBOX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1145 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton MA has issued a
Flood Warning for the following rivers in Massachusetts...Rhode
Island...
Sudbury River At Saxonville affecting Middlesex County.
Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Kent and Providence Counties.
Taunton River Near Bridgewater affecting Bristol and Plymouth
Counties.
Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County.
For the Sudbury River...including Saxonville...Minor flooding is
forecast.
For the Pawtuxet River...including Cranston, Scituate Reservoir...
Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Taunton River...including Bridgewater...Minor flooding is
forecast.
For the Wood River...including Hope Valley...Minor flooding is
forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued this evening at 1145 PM EDT.
&&
RIC003-007-170345-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FL.W.0002.260316T2300Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.260316T2300Z.260317T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1145 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Pawtuxet River at Cranston.
* WHEN...From this evening until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 11.0 feet, Structures and homes are impacted in low
lying sections of Warwick. Affected areas include homes and
businesses on Wellington Avenue and Avery Road in Cranston, as
well as Pioneer Avenue, Bellows Street, Venturi Avenue and a
portion of River Street in Warwick.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:45 AM EDT Monday the stage was 7.2 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
this evening and continue rising to a crest of 10.7 feet
tomorrow morning.
- Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4178 7156 4180 7141 4172 7139 4170 7155
$$
RIC009-170345-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FL.W.0003.260317T0330Z-260318T2218Z/
/HOPR1.1.ER.260317T0330Z.260317T1800Z.260318T1617Z.UU/
1145 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Wood River at Hope Valley.
* WHEN...From this evening to Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, In Richmond, the Wood River renders
portions of Wood River Drive and Wood River Circle impassable. In
Hopkinton, the Wood River floods sections of Dow Park off of Main
Street.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:15 AM EDT Monday the stage was 3.3 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 5.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late this evening to a crest of 6.5 feet early tomorrow
afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early
Wednesday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164
$$
MAC017-170345-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FL.W.0004.260317T1200Z-260318T1200Z/
/SAXM3.1.ER.260317T1200Z.260317T1200Z.260318T0600Z.NO/
1145 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Sudbury River at Saxonville.
* WHEN...From Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flooding will affect low lying areas along
the river in Wayland, including a portion of Shore Road and Pelham
Island Road near Heards Pond.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:15 AM EDT Monday the stage was 9.1 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.0
feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
early Wednesday morning.
- Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4227 7140 4230 7145 4248 7139 4245 7129
$$
MAC005-023-170345-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FL.W.0005.260317T1300Z-000000T0000Z/
/BDGM3.1.ER.260317T1300Z.260318T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1145 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Taunton River near Bridgewater.
* WHEN...From Tuesday morning until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, Backwater flooding from the Taunton River
will cause flooding of lower Purchade Brook in Middleboro. This
will cause Woloski Park to become impassable by most vehicles for
an extended period of time. Beware of the dangers of crossing
flooded roadways. The water may be deeper than you think.
Floodwaters have the ability to damage roadways. Heed the advice
of local officials, and evacuate if asked to do so.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:45 AM EDT Monday the stage was 6.2 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
late tomorrow morning and continue rising to a crest of 9.2
feet early Wednesday morning.
- Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4182 7119 4202 7097 4194 7087 4177 7110
$$4 follow-up statements
068
WGUS81 KBOX 170334
FLSBOX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1134 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Massachusetts...Rhode Island...
Sudbury River At Saxonville affecting Middlesex County.
Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Kent and Providence Counties.
Taunton River Near Bridgewater affecting Plymouth and Bristol
Counties.
Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County.
For the Sudbury River...including Saxonville...Minor flooding is
forecast.
For the Pawtuxet River...including Cranston...Minor flooding is
forecast.
For the Taunton River...including Bridgewater...Minor flooding is
forecast.
For the Wood River...including Hope Valley...Minor flooding is
forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued Tuesday afternoon at 215 PM EDT.
&&
RIC009-171815-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260318T2218Z/
/HOPR1.1.ER.260317T0330Z.260317T1800Z.260318T1048Z.UU/
1134 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Wood River at Hope Valley.
* WHEN...Until Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, In Richmond, the Wood River renders
portions of Wood River Drive and Wood River Circle impassable. In
Hopkinton, the Wood River floods sections of Dow Park off of Main
Street.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:15 PM EDT Monday the stage was 4.0 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 5.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
tomorrow morning to a crest of 5.7 feet early tomorrow
afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage Wednesday
morning.
- Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164
$$
RIC003-007-171815-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.260316T2300Z.260318T0000Z.260319T0430Z.NO/
1134 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Pawtuxet River at Cranston.
* WHEN...Until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flooding will occur along Pioneer Avenue,
Bellows Street and Venturi Avenue in Warwick. Some homes are
impacted on Avery Road and Wellington Avenue in Cranston.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:45 PM EDT Monday the stage was 8.0 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
just after midnight tonight to a crest of 10.5 feet tomorrow
evening. It will then fall below flood stage early Thursday
morning.
- Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4178 7156 4180 7141 4172 7139 4170 7155
$$
MAC017-171815-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0004.260317T1200Z-260318T1200Z/
/SAXM3.1.ER.260317T1800Z.260317T1800Z.260317T1800Z.NO/
1134 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Sudbury River at Saxonville.
* WHEN...From Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flooding will affect low lying areas along
the river in Wayland, including a portion of Shore Road and Pelham
Island Road near Heards Pond.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:15 PM EDT Monday the stage was 9.3 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.0
feet early tomorrow afternoon.
- Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4227 7140 4230 7145 4248 7139 4245 7129
$$
MAC005-023-171815-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0005.260317T1300Z-000000T0000Z/
/BDGM3.1.ER.260317T1800Z.260318T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1134 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Taunton River near Bridgewater.
* WHEN...From Tuesday morning until further notice.
* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, Backwater flooding from the Taunton River
will cause flooding of lower Purchade Brook in Middleboro. This
will cause Woloski Park to become impassable by most vehicles for
an extended period of time. Beware of the dangers of crossing
flooded roadways. The water may be deeper than you think.
Floodwaters have the ability to damage roadways. Heed the advice
of local officials, and evacuate if asked to do so.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 10:45 PM EDT Monday the stage was 6.6 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
early tomorrow afternoon and continue rising to a crest of
9.3 feet early Wednesday afternoon.
- Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4182 7119 4202 7097 4194 7087 4177 7110
$$
Mensch323
WGUS81 KBOX 171607
FLSBOX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1207 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Rhode
Island...Massachusetts...
Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Kent and Providence Counties.
Taunton River Near Bridgewater affecting Plymouth and Bristol
Counties.
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Massachusetts...Rhode Island...
Sudbury River At Saxonville affecting Middlesex County.
Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County.
For the Pawtuxet River...including Cranston, Scituate Reservoir...
Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Taunton River...including Bridgewater...Minor flooding is
forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 115 PM EDT.
&&
MAC017-171715-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260317T1607Z/
/SAXM3.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1207 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Sudbury River At Saxonville.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:15 AM EDT Tuesday the stage was 9.5 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 8.9 feet Friday
morning.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4227 7140 4230 7145 4248 7139 4245 7129
$$
RIC009-171715-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260317T1607Z/
/HOPR1.1.ER.260317T0330Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1207 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Wood River At Hope Valley.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:15 AM EDT Tuesday the stage was 4.7 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 5.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 3.3 feet Friday
morning.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164
$$
MAC005-023-180900-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260319T0600Z/
/BDGM3.1.ER.260318T0600Z.260318T1200Z.260319T0000Z.NO/
1207 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Taunton River near Bridgewater.
* WHEN...Until early Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 8.0 feet, Backwater flooding from the Taunton River
will cause flooding of lower Purchade Brook in Middleboro. This
will cause Woloski Park to become impassable by most vehicles.
Beware of the dangers of crossing flooded roadways.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 11:45 AM EDT Tuesday the stage was 7.3 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
just after midnight tonight to a crest of 8.1 feet tomorrow
morning. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow
evening.
- Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4182 7119 4202 7097 4194 7087 4177 7110
$$
RIC003-007-180900-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260319T1031Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.260316T2300Z.260318T1200Z.260319T0430Z.NO/
1207 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Pawtuxet River at Cranston.
* WHEN...Until Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 9.5 feet, Parking lots and roads are flooded in low
lying areas of Warwick and Cranston near the Pawtuxet River.
Impacted roads include River Street, Pioneer Avenue, Bellows
Street and Venturi Avenue in Warwick.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 12:00 PM EDT Tuesday the stage was 8.9 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
this afternoon to a crest of 9.7 feet tomorrow morning. It
will then fall below flood stage early Thursday morning.
- Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4178 7156 4180 7141 4172 7139 4170 7155
$$734
WGUS81 KBOX 172003
FLSBOX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
403 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Rhode
Island...
Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Providence and Kent Counties.
For the Pawtuxet River...including Cranston...Minor flooding is
forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued by Wednesday afternoon at 1215 PM
EDT.
&&
RIC003-007-181615-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260319T1031Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.260316T2300Z.260318T0000Z.260318T1200Z.NO/
403 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Pawtuxet River at Cranston.
* WHEN...Until Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, Minor lowland flooding will occur along the
river as it flows through Warwick and Cranston.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 2:45 PM EDT Tuesday the stage was 9.0 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 9.0
feet this evening. It will then fall below flood stage
tomorrow morning.
- Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4178 7156 4180 7141 4172 7139 4170 7155
$$
RM751
WGUS81 KBOX 180133
FLSBOX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
933 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Massachusetts...
Taunton River Near Bridgewater affecting Plymouth and Bristol
Counties.
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Rhode
Island...
Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Providence and Kent Counties.
For the Taunton River...including Bridgewater...Minor flooding is
forecast.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.
The next statement will be issued this evening at 1045 PM EDT.
&&
RIC003-007-180245-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260318T0133Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.260316T2300Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
933 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Pawtuxet River At Cranston.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:45 PM EDT Tuesday the stage was 8.8 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to continue to slowly fall
and remain below flood stage.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4178 7156 4180 7141 4172 7139 4170 7155
$$
MAC005-023-181815-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-260319T0600Z/
/BDGM3.1.ER.260318T1200Z.260318T1200Z.260318T1800Z.NO/
933 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026
...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.
* WHERE...Taunton River near Bridgewater.
* WHEN...Until early Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...At 8.0 feet, Backwater flooding from the Taunton River
will cause flooding of lower Purchade Brook in Middleboro. This
will cause Woloski Park to become impassable by most vehicles.
Beware of the dangers of crossing flooded roadways.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 8:45 PM EDT Tuesday the stage was 7.7 feet.
- Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet.
- Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 8.0
feet tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
early tomorrow afternoon.
- Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
&&
LAT...LON 4182 7119 4202 7097 4194 7087 4177 7110
$$
LocontoWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 16, 7:08 AM EDT, 4 hours 37 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Periods of heavy rain with embedded t-storms today, especially tonight, may lead to river and small stream flooding. Poor drainage in urban areas could flood as well.
- A period of strong to damaging winds across SNE tonight.
- Mainly dry and trending colder Tue into Wed, then moderating temperatures Thu and especially Fri.
- Unsettled pattern from Fri night through the weekend with a chance of showers at times.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 16, 7:08 AM EDT, 4 hours 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
708 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High Wind Watches have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings across
eastern MA and RI.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of heavy rain with embedded t-storms today,
especially tonight, may lead to river and small stream
flooding. Poor drainage in urban areas could flood as well.
- A period of strong to damaging winds across SNE tonight.
- Mainly dry and trending colder Tue into Wed, then moderating
temperatures Thu and especially Fri.
- Unsettled pattern from Fri night through the weekend with a
chance of showers at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Periods of heavy rain with embedded t-storms
Monday, especially Monday night, may lead to some river and
small stream flooding. Poor drainage in urban areas could flood
as well.
A deepening low moving across the Great Lakes today will bring the
potential for heavy rain, flooding, embedded thunderstorms, and
damaging winds to southern New England today into tonight. Starting
with the rain and flooding, a warm front lifts through the region
this morning, advecting in warmer air and moisture from the south. A
strong LLJ with speeds topping out around 80-90 kt at 925 mb will
only reinforce this WAA; 925 mb temperatures increase to 10C-15C
across southern New England during the afternoon. Surface
temperatures could reach the 60s today across the region. NAEFS
ensemble guidance the last few runs has also shown significantly
above normal IVT during this period, around 6-8 SD above normal over
the region by 00z Tuesday. Guidance has also continued to show a
good amount of elevated MUCAPE ranging between 200-600 J/kg with the
higher amounts in CT, RI, and up into parts of central MA during the
afternoon. This coupled with the strong LLJ at 925 mb would be
supportive of some rumbles of thunder and more convective elements
that could lead to heavier rainfall where any t-storms develop.
Outside of these areas, mostly light to moderate rainfall is
expected today into tonight. Totals will likely fall in the 2-3"
range with localized 4"+ possible where any heavier downpours
develop.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A period of strong to damaging across SNE tonight.
Strong signal for a period of strong to damaging wind gusts tonight
across SNE as anomalous low level jet lifts across the region. Hi-
res guidance indicating solid 80-90 kt LLJ at 925 mb moving up along
the SNE coast 03-06z then exiting Cape Cod by 09z so looking at
about a 3-4 hr window of peak winds. The challenge is how much of
this jet will mix down to the surface as we will be dealing with a
low level inversion. How mild it gets will be a big factor and
soundings suggest damaging wind potential will increase considerably
with temps 60F or higher. Given that we have increased confidence of
temps near 60F this evening especially away from the immediate south
coast, these mild temps should weaken the inversion enough for a
period of damaging winds. Also there is quite a pressure fall rise
couplet along the cold front which may also help to enhance winds
near and along the boundary. As a result we upgraded the High Wind
Watches to High Wind Warnings for eastern MA and RI where the
strongest winds are expected in the vicinity of max low level winds.
Potential for 55-65 mph gusts in this area and this is supported by
HREF mean wind gusts. Low risk for a gust to 70 mph across southern
RI and SE MA. Kept the wind advisories for the rest of SNE for a
period of 45-55 mph gusts. Strongest gusts in the interior should be
across CT and adjacent areas of central MA where a few 55-60 mph
gust are possible.
Hi-res CAMs do show a robust fine line to the west late afternoon
and and early evening where there is modest surface instability.
However, this fine line is expected to weaken as it moves into SNE
later tonight as instability here is elevated above the boundary
layer. However the CAMs are showing numerous convective elements
moving into SNE tonight which could help to bring stronger winds to
the surface.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry and trending colder Tue into Wed, then
moderating temperatures Thu and especially Fri.
The cold front will be well east of the coast by daybreak Tue with
much drier air moving into the region. Expect mostly sunny skies but
some diurnal CU as well as cooling temps aloft move into the region.
The cold advection aloft will help to deepen the boundary layer
which will support gusty W winds with gusts 25-35 mph. Highs will be
mostly in the low-mid 40s, with 30s higher elevations.
The core of the coldest air will be Tue night into Wed as 850 mb
temps bottom out at -15 to -18C around 12z Wed. Lows Tue night will
drop into the teens and low 20s with high only in the 30s on Wed.
Winds however will be diminishing late Tue night into Wed as high
pres builds into the region. Still these temps will be about 10
degrees below normal for mid March. Temps moderate Thu and
especially Fri as the high moves offshore with SW flow developing.
Highs should reach into the 50s on Fri ahead of an approaching cold
front.
KEY MESSAGE 4...Unsettled pattern from Fri night through the weekend
with a chance of showers at times.
Fairly active pattern setting up for next weekend as multiple
northern stream shortwaves will be rotating SE toward New Eng.
Timing and amplitude of these shortwaves are not certain so low
confidence on details but it does appear next weekend will be an
unsettled period as a series of frontal systems move into the
region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Monday...High Confidence
IFR in expanding RA. Winds increase through the day, shifting
to become more southerly, gusting 30-35 kts late afternoon and
evening. Scattered TSRA is increasingly likely particularly in
CT and RI.
Monday Night...High Confidence.
Peak of the winds, gusting gusting 40-55kts for several hours.
S winds become more SW and W by 12Z. RA/TSRA possible through
07-12z, ending from west to east.
Tuesday...High Confidence
VFR. Region clears out behind cold front. Gusty W winds around
25-30 kt are left in its wake.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.
Thursday Night: Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.
Friday: Breezy. Slight chance RA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday
Winds ramp back up today into tonight as a powerful low pressure
system approaches from the west. Seas increase considerably headed
into tonight, reaching up to 15 ft and even close to 20 ft in the
southern waters by 06z Tuesday. Seas 7-10 ft will be more common in
the eastern waters. Winds will very likely reach storm conditions
tonight. Storm Warnings are in effect for all waters.
Seas decrease to around 12 ft for Tuesday as the cold front exits
over the waters. W winds remain gusty to around 35 kt through the
day Tuesday.
Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...
Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for CTZ002>004.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MAZ002>022-026.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday
for MAZ005>007-013>024.
RI...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for RIZ001>007.
High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday
for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ230-236.
Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
&&
DISCUSSION...KJC/Hrencecin
AVIATION...McMinn
MARINE...HrencecinThe office that day
Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 12:11 AM EDT | High Wind Warning | BOX | Bristol, Kent, Newport, Providence, Washington | 30 hr |
| Mar 16, 11:45 AM EDT | River Flood Warning | BOX | Washington | 55 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Rhode Island, 2026Every river flood warning in 2026
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.