Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

774 
WWUS55 KBOU 162359
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
559 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COC073-170030-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0331.000000T0000Z-260817T0030Z/
Lincoln CO-
559 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

At 559 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 16 miles southeast
of Boyero, or 40 miles south of Flagler, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of Southeastern Lincoln County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

Heavy rain is occurring with this storm and may lead to flooding. Do
not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 10332 3880 10316 3869 10316 3869 10317
      3853 10317 3852 10324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 296DEG 10KT 3874 10319

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

63

303 
WWUS55 KBOU 170020
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
620 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COC073-170030-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0331.000000T0000Z-260817T0030Z/
Lincoln CO-
620 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT Sunday
for a portion of east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 10332 3880 10316 3869 10316 3869 10317
      3853 10317 3852 10324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 296DEG 10KT 3872 10315

$$

63

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1238 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. A
  few of them could become strong to severe, with strong winds,
  large hail, and heavy rainfall.

- Warming and drying trend for Monday and Tuesday, but still
  isolated gusty pm storms/virga.

- More active weather day shaping up for Wednesday with scattered
  severe thunderstorm threat.

- Warmer again through the coming weekend with above normal
  temperatures. Drier Thursday and Friday, but some monsoonal
  moisture likely returns by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Rich, low level air remained in place across the plains this
afternoon. This along with daytime heating is building MLCAPE
into the 1000-1800 J/kg range. Local ACARS soundings still show a
pretty healthy cap in place, but we are warming and should at
least get close to convective temperatures. The most likely area
for convective initiation of course is over the mountains (already
ongoing), but also the higher terrain of the Palmer Divide and
Cheyenne Ridge. Storms will likely move in a southeasterly
direction once they develop, and a weakening cap is expected to
allow propagation across the plains and portions of the I-25
Corridor. Bulk shear will be increasing to 30-35 kts, so enough
shear and instability is present for a few supercells. Thus, large
hail and damaging winds will be a threat with any storms through
mid evening. It should be worth noting that we'll be under the
right entrance region of an upper level speed max, so weak forcing
should help coverage a bit so we did bump pops up ever so
slightly, with the highest odds of storms over the northeast
plains and Palmer Divide. That upper level speed max could also
aid storms to last a bit longer into the evening than normal.

We still expect clearing skies overnight, and enough lingering low
level moisture for some patchy fog over the plains and in the
high mountain valleys.

Monday will feature warmer and drier weather as the ridge axis
retrogrades to the west-northwest. That puts our forecast into a
drier westerly flow aloft, and mid level temperatures will also be
warming. Highs are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s
over the plains and I-25 Corridor. We'll still likely have enough
lingering moisture and strong daytime heating to support isolated
late day convection. The airmass along the I-25 Corridor would be
more supportive of just isolated late afternoon/evening sprinkles
and microbursts as DCAPE grows to ~1500 J/kg. Similar weather
conditions although further warming of a few degrees is expected
for Tuesday. Also, a late afternoon frontal passage will likely
be enough to support growing high based shower/storm coverage into
the Tuesday evening and overnight hours.

Wednesday is still on track to be slightly cooler with increased
chances of storms again as the post frontal airmass will be cooler
and more moist. Average MLCAPE from various models suggest
1000-2000 J/kg, while bulk shear is an impressive 40-50 kts so a
growing severe storm threat will be in the picture.

Thursday and Friday are shaping up to be drier again as the ridge
amplifies, this time across Colorado and eastern Utah. That means
a stronger thermal ridge and high temperatures pushing well above
normal...into the lower to mid 90s across the plains and I-25
Corridor. While the ridge should hold fairly steady across the
Central Rockies through at least next weekend, ensembles have good
agreement for an increase in monsoonal moisture under the ridge.
That would support a return to scattered afternoon and evening
shower/storms as well, with the greatest chances holding over the
mountains at least until early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

As of 1745z, cumulus clouds are starting to build in the
mountains and the foothills to the west of the three sites with a
scattered deck pushing into KBJC. There is still a cap in place as
seen on ACARS soundings and radar is just starting to show some
returns in Park County. Given the fog that was in place this
morning as well as the cap still in place, we have held off on the
PROB30 from starting until 22z at KDEN and then lasting until
about 3z. Gusty winds, lowering ceilings, and heavy rainfall
(briefly limiting visibility) are possible from any storm that
passes near or directly over the TAF sites. Some CAMs are showing
showers and thunderstorms lingering a bit after 3z, but confidence
is low in this scenario at this time.

There is also some uncertainty on the winds tonight. For now, we
have gone ahead with an E to SE wind this evening before winds
turn to drainage by about 7z. Several CAMs depict outflow
boundaries from storms to the east moving through the metro early
this evening potentially affecting KAPA and KDEN. If this were to
occur, winds could shift more to an east or northeast direction
and briefly gust to around 20 kts.

For tomorrow, winds will start to turn clockwise before settling
on a northeast direction early in the afternoon. Model soundings
show DCAPE values reaching up to 1,500 J/kg and some mid-level
moisture lingering. So, we expect the possibility of virga showers
and dry microbursts starting around 21z and lasting through the
early evening (potentially a bit after the TAF period). These
could bring gusty winds and ceilings lowering to about 12,000 ft
AGL with little to no rainfall expected. Have now included a
PROB30 for this possibility.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...MV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
238 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ041-162115-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet CO-
238 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM MDT...

At 238 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Simla, or 31 miles west of Limon, moving east at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Simla.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Heavy rain is occurring with this storm and may lead to flooding. Do
not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3924 10432 3927 10416 3926 10416 3926 10414
      3927 10413 3925 10412 3925 10411 3927 10409
      3926 10409 3925 10408 3925 10406 3924 10406
      3923 10405 3923 10404 3905 10403 3905 10405
      3913 10405 3913 10431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 266DEG 8KT 3916 10425

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

63

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Denver CO
344 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Flash Flood      6 WNW Simla             39.17N 104.18W
08/16/2026                   Elbert             CO   Storm Chaser

            Video on social media of standing water of
            at least 6 inches over CR. 105.

0243 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 W Simla               39.14N 104.20W
08/16/2026  M64 MPH          Elbert             CO   Mesonet

            Personal Weather Station- Weather
            Underground.

0223 PM     Hail             2 W Ponderosa Park      39.39N 104.67W
08/16/2026  E0.75 Inch       Douglas            CO   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
354 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ047-162245-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County CO-
354 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT AND
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 354 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 8 miles northeast of Boyero to 7 miles
east of Truckton, or extending from 32 miles southeast of Limon to 37
miles northeast of Pueblo Airport, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Punkin Center, Kutch and Boyero.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Heavy rain is occurring with these storms and may lead to flooding.
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 10405 3904 10387 3910 10334 3910 10316
      3887 10316 3880 10364 3852 10401 3852 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 303DEG 13KT 3903 10319 3897 10382 3870 10406

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

63

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
443 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ047-162315-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County CO-
443 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

At 443 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Boyero, or 31 miles southeast of Limon, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Boyero.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Heavy rain is occurring with this storm and may lead to flooding. Do
not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3885 10343 3904 10343 3903 10316 3885 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 319DEG 7KT 3893 10331

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

63

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Denver CO
526 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     Hail             7 SW Boyero             38.85N 103.35W
08/16/2026  E1.50 Inch       Lincoln            CO   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&

AA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
529 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ042>044-170000-
Morgan County CO-Northeast Weld County CO-Central and South Weld
County CO-
529 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MORGAN AND
EAST CENTRAL WELD COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM MDT...

At 529 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 10 miles north of Stoneham to 11 miles
southeast of Briggsdale, or extending from 27 miles west of Sterling
to 27 miles northwest of Fort Morgan, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
  New Raymer, Jackson Reservoir, Stoneham and Buckingham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Heavy rain is occurring with these storms and may lead to flooding.
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 10435 4068 10396 4084 10368 4069 10358
      4060 10358 4046 10377 4035 10417
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 321DEG 12KT 4076 10368 4060 10389 4051 10420

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

63