Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

906 
WWUS55 KBOU 112212
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
412 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

COC073-112230-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260411T2230Z/
Lincoln CO-
412 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY...

At 412 PM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 7
miles north of Karval to 6 miles west of Wild Horse Point, or along a
line from 31 miles south of Limon to 51 miles south of Limon, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Karval, Forder and Wild Horse Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 10374 3879 10377 3885 10348 3852 10344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 242DEG 21KT 3879 10362 3861 10370 3849 10370

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

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941 
WWUS55 KBOU 112225
SVSBOU

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
425 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

COC073-112235-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260411T2230Z/
Lincoln CO-
425 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM MDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 10374 3879 10377 3885 10348 3852 10344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 242DEG 21KT 3883 10352 3865 10359 3854 10360

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
108 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms producing gusty winds
  through early evening. Gusty outflow winds (30-45 mph) will be
  common. A couple stronger gusts to 60 mph are possible.

- Warm and dry Sunday and Monday, with breezy/windy conditions
  along with elevated to locally critical fire conditions.

- Weakening disturbance for Tuesday with a chance of mainly light
  showers, then dry weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 108 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
Great Basin at this time. As it tracks northeastward, lift will
spread across the area. Skies have been slow to clear this
morning, but the airmass will destabilize this afternoon. Moisture
will be limited. Even though dew points this morning were in the
30s and 40s, the shallow moisture will mix with the drier air
aloft, causing dew points to fall into the 20s to lower 30s.
SBCAPE climbs to 500 J/kg, which isn't that impressive. However,
DCAPE reaches 1000 J/kg, thus storms will be capable of gusty
outflow winds, with the strongest reaching around 60 mph. Best
chance for storms and strong winds will be mid to late afternoon
along the Front Range and late afternoon to early evening over the
eastern plains. Threat for showers/storms ends around sunset as
the airmass stabilizes and the shortwave lifts northeast of the
area. 

Southwest flow aloft continues for Sunday and Monday bringing
warm and dry weather. On Sunday, the higher terrain mixes into
stronger southwest winds aloft, leading to gusts around 30 mph.
The threat for gusty winds over the plains will not be as great
due to a forming surface low over northeast Colorado. Weaker
southwest winds to variable are expected under the low. Stronger
winds, which lead to critical fire weather conditions, should
remain over the southern half of the Colorado plains. The Fire
Weather Watch was canceled for most of the northeast plains, but a
strip of zones across our southern area remains under the watch
due to stronger winds, which may still bring gusts up to 30 mph. 
Similar weather conditions are expected for Monday, with gusty
southwest winds, strongest over the higher terrain. Moisture
begins to increase from the west as a broad, disorganized upper
level trough approaches the Central Rockies. This will lead to
slightly higher relative humidities over the higher terrain. A few
weak showers will also be possible, beginning in the afternoon. 

The chance for showers continues Monday night over the mountains
ahead of the upper level trough. We expect cooler temperatures and
a chance for showers to spread across the area Tuesday. A good
amount uncertainty remains regarding the location and timing of
the shortwave trough(s) embedded in the larger upper level trough.
Precipitation amounts from this system look to be on the light
side. 

On Wednesday, weak ridging moves across Colorado. Drier conditions
return and temperatures begin to warm. Flow aloft backs to the
southwest Thursday ahead of the next upper level trough to the
west. Temperatures warm into the 70s across northeast Colorado,
and dry conditions continue. The upper level trough moves across
Colorado sometime Friday and/or Saturday. Ensembles show a very
large spread in how this system evolves, but the general trend is
cooler temperatures (not surprising) and a weaker system with
showers. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Winds have been  gusting around 15 to 20 knots for the past
several hours at KAPA and KDEN. We have quickly warmed this
morning to near 70 degrees F at KDEN as of 18z and are starting to
see cumulus clouds across Boulder, Jefferson, and Douglas
counties. A chance for high-based isolated to scattered showers
(30-40%) continues for this afternoon at all three sites. There is
a low chance (10%) for an isolated thunderstorm to occur.
Therefore, we opted to stick with the -SHRA vs.-TSRA. DCAPE values
are expected to be around 700 to 1000 J/kg, but CAPE values
should stay below 400 J/kg this afternoon. To account for any
gusty outflow winds from these showers, there is a TEMPO and
PROB30 for wind gusts of 30 to 40 kts with a low chance (10%) of
these gusts exceeding 40 kts. These would generally occur between
20z and 02z this afternoon and evening.

We eventually turn to drainage winds this evening between 6 and
12 kts. Tomorrow afternoon, winds will stay S to SW, but will
increase with gusts expected to be as strong as 20 to 25 knots
starting around 18z at KAPA and KDEN. Skies will be mainly clear
tomorrow afternoon with only a few mid-level clouds possible.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for COZ214-216-238-241-246-247.

&&

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...MV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
426 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

COZ030>051-121030-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
426 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and a couple thunderstorms with gusty winds can
be expected across the area this afternoon and early evening.
Cloud to ground lightning, wind gusts to 40-50 mph, and only a
brief period of rain can be expected from any passing storms. One
or two storms on the plains will be capable of producing
localized and sudden wind gusts of 50-60 mph and blowing dust.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will return for
Sunday and Monday due to warmer, dry, and windier weather. The
most widespread critical conditions are shaping up to occur on
Monday.

Cooler weather and scattered showers are still in the forecast
for Tuesday, but the chances of any significant rain are low. Any
snowfall in the mountains will be on the lighter side with
generally minor travel impacts over the higher passes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight. However,
any reports of strong, gusty winds will be appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
333 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

COZ040-045-112200-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County CO-Central and East
Adams and Arapahoe Counties CO-
333 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ARAPAHOE AND SOUTHWESTERN
ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM MDT...

At 333 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of showers extending
from over Watkins to 10 miles south of Manila Village, or extending
from 19 miles east of Denver to 25 miles east of Denver, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Eastern Aurora and Manila Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 10453 3967 10459 3974 10461 3979 10450
      3972 10445 3965 10439 3960 10450 3963 10449
      3966 10449 3966 10450 3965 10451 3965 10452
      3964 10452 3963 10451 3963 10452 3962 10452
      3962 10453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 224DEG 7KT 3973 10460 3967 10453 3961 10451

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

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