Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1229 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon, and a
  few may become strong to severe in the plains.

- Widespread and prolonged critical fire weather conditions will
  be present in the high country this weekend as warm, dry and
  windy conditions develop, continuing at times into early next
  week.

- All areas will trend warmer and drier this weekend, with little
  change into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Our stretch of active weather will come to a close soon, but we
have one more day of afternoon thunderstorms to contend with
before truly warmer and drier conditions return. Moisture levels
do tick down slightly today, but PW values will still range
between ~0.8" over the urban corridor to around 1.10" in the
eastern plains - plenty sufficient for additional rain with any
afternoon storms. Guidance is rather variable as far as CAPE is
concerned for the urban corridor, though maintains moderate to
healthy instability over the plains. With little if any stratus
currently present over the lower elevations, and one additional
shortwave approaching from our west, suspect convection today will
be more widespread compared to what earlier model guidance had
been suggesting. Despite a decline in lapse rates and bulk shear
values, both parameters should still be sufficient to support
isolated strong to severe storms later in the afternoon and
evening, particularly for the plains. On a positive note, the
combination of recent rainfall and more subdued fire activity to
our west yesterday will result in vastly improved air quality
today, with much less smoke aloft.

We remain on track for the arrival of much warmer and drier
weather for this weekend as a ridging pattern takes hold over the
central plains. Strengthening southwest flow aloft ahead of a
trough to our west will generate hefty winds, most notable for the
high country, and drive a prolonged period of high fire danger
that will continue into early next week. Fortunately, more
abundant green-up and recent precipitation will keep those
concerns limited east of the Front Range mountains. All areas
look to remain dry through at least Monday, and temperatures
across the lower elevations will quickly rebound into the mid to
upper 90's this weekend. If we can keep cloud (and smoke) coverage
to a minimum, we'll likely see the hottest temperatures of the
year so far Saturday and/or Sunday.

The remainder of the week looks to be characterized by continued
above-average temperatures and generally low precipitation
chances, as Colorado remains anchored between a troughing pattern
to our west and a ridge over the plains. That said, a few
shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow regime may lead to
isolated afternoon showers or weak thunderstorms some afternoons.
Elevated to at times critical fire weather conditions will persist
in the high country given stubborn breezy winds much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1223 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Winds are light and variable winds over the Denver metro area at
this time, and high- res model guidance is in agreement that
winds will shift to the SE- SSE this afternoon. Satellite imagery
shows increasing cumulus over the high terrain as well as
developing showers in the vicinity of KAPA. The PROB30 is on track
for scattered showers between 20Z and 00Z, and there will be
enough instability (500-900 J/kg CAPE) for a few lightning strikes
to accompany these showers, which is why we have opted to include
-TSRA for all three airports. However, today's shower threat
 appears to be a more typical summer afternoon pattern, with
 higher cloud bases and gusty outflows (30-35KT) as the primary
 impact.

Stronger than usual (15-20KT) southerly drainage winds will be in
place by 06Z tonight, although KBJC is more likely to remain
light and variable through the night. Moderately strong
southwesterly winds aloft will mix down to the surface starting at
15Z-16Z Saturday morning, and these winds will persist through at
least sunset, gusting to 25-30KT at times. Otherwise, skies will
be mostly clear and VFR is expected through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Fire weather concerns will be limited today given increased
moisture and continued scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Much warmer, drier and above all windier weather will arrive near
midday Sunday, with the strongest winds impacting the high country
with sustained speeds approaching 25 to 30 mph and gusts as high
as 50 mph expected. With humidity descending into the low teens
during the afternoon, critical fire weather conditions will become
widespread. This warm, dry and windy pattern is set to continue
into Sunday and Monday, with only slight moderation in wind speeds
and/or humidity levels anticipated. As such, expect periods of
critical fire weather conditions to continue each day in the high
country, including both the mountains and high valleys. Greener
fuels and recent precipitation will keep fire danger much lower
across the lower elevations and much of the foothills.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday
night for COZ211>214-217-218.

&&

DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...AA
FIRE WEATHER...BRQ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
150 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

COZ039-040-262030-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County CO-Boulder And Jefferson
Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield County CO-
150 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DENVER...WESTERN
ADAMS...SOUTHWESTERN BROOMFIELD...NORTHWESTERN ARAPAHOE AND
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

At 150 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Arvada, or 11 miles northwest of Denver, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Denver, western Aurora, Lakewood, Thornton, Arvada, Westminster,
  Commerce City, Northglenn, Brighton, Wheat Ridge, Golden, Federal
  Heights, Edgewater, Mountain View and Henderson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 10522 3977 10522 3978 10519 3979 10520
      3980 10520 3980 10522 3985 10522 3985 10521
      3987 10520 3989 10520 3996 10479 3965 10477
      3968 10519 3968 10515 3970 10514 3972 10515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 269DEG 24KT 3980 10514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

09