Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
253 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026

- Heat: A major heat risk is expected this afternoon across
  Central Alabama, with maximum heat indices from 105 to 109
  degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the south and west
  portions of the area.

- Severe Weather: There is a 1 out of 5 risk for severe
  thunderstorms across the southeastern portions of Central
  Alabama this afternoon and evening, and again on Thursday
  afternoon in the extreme southeast. The main threat for both
  days will be damaging straight-line winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026

Impressive dewpoints around the area today, with upper 70s and
near 80 degrees quite common. Fortunately, a persistent cloud
deck was helping to keep air temperatures in check and heat
indices from getting out of control. Will maintain the current
Heat Advisory through its 9 pm expiration.

With the upper level dome of high pressure centered to our west,
we will remain in a northwest flow regime through the rest of the
work week. Drier air (in a relative sense) is forecast to push
into the area from the north and northeast, which will limit the
chances of rain to the southern part of the CWA. There's still a
Marginal Risk of severe storms in the far southeast through this
evening. But based on radar trends so far this afternoon, the more
intense convection should stay to our south and southeast.

Models are still advertising a shortwave trough to dig into the
Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys late Friday and into the weekend.
Lift associated with this trough will likely cause enhanced rain
chances Friday night into Saturday. Latest computer model runs
seem to be a little faster bringing this feature through than
before. So, Sunday may not be as much of a washout as previously
thought.

Beyond that, increasing model spread in how the upper level low is
handled leads to lower forecast confidence early next week.
Computer model blend schemes output POPs and temperatures near
climo levels, and that quite honestly seems like the best course
of action at this time.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026

Radars just before 18z showed a few showers across the middle of
Alabama, but those were very light and seemed to have no impact on
ceilings of visibilities. Satellite imagery showed a big deck of
mid/high level clouds (above FL120), and just a few CU otherwise.

Decided to continue with a VFR forecast through the next 24
hours. While chances of convection reaching any TAF site is not
zero, I didn't think that chance was high enough to warrant a
TEMPO or PROB30 group in the forecast. If we later see something
heading to a TAF location, then we can amend to account for the
result cig/vsby restrictions.

Note: AMD NOT SKED for KAUO due to a weather observation outage.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will help fire weather concerns in
check for the week.  MinRH values are expected to remain above
50 percent through Wednesday. Some drier air begins to work in
from the east on Thursday and Friday with RHs dropping to around
40%. However, winds will be light enough to negate any fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  91  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    70  90  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  73  92  70  93 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  74  93  72  93 /  20  10   0  20
Calera      73  94  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
Auburn      74  91  71  91 /  10  10   0  10
Montgomery  74  94  72  94 /  20  10  10  10
Troy        73  93  71  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chilton-Dallas-Elmore-
Greene-Hale-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-
Russell-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.

&&

DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
306 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

ALZ045-292030-
Macon AL-
306 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 306 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Davisville, or 9 miles southeast of Tuskegee, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Davisville and Warriorstand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3223 8570 3237 8574 3239 8555 3223 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 335DEG 20KT 3233 8564

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

87/Grantham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
317 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

ALZ044-045-292045-
Montgomery AL-Macon AL-
317 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MACON AND
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Waugh to Montgomery. Movement was southeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Montgomery, Pike Road, Shorter, Auburn University In
Montgomery, Hardaway, Eastdale Mall, Mount Meigs, Tysonville, Waugh,
Mitylene, Cross Keys, Brassell, and Cecil.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3223 8613 3241 8622 3241 8596 3228 8583
      3227 8587 3229 8588 3230 8590 3227 8590
      3227 8598 3225 8599
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 317DEG 12KT 3237 8602 3236 8615

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

87/Grantham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
321 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

ALZ035-040-041-292100-
Chilton AL-Autauga AL-Dallas AL-
321 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN AUTAUGA...
SOUTHWESTERN CHILTON AND NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paul M Grist State Park, or 9 miles north of Valley Grande, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Valley Grande, Burnsville, Parnell, Paul M Grist State Park, Valley
Creek Junction, Plantersville, Barrett Creek, and Dawson Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 8692 3261 8705 3264 8705 3266 8703
      3269 8703 3272 8702 3276 8694 3255 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 320DEG 14KT 3265 8697

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

87/Grantham