Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with
  high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees
  through Thursday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 9 PM
  Thursday.

- Thunderstorms: Portions of the region are under a Slight Risk
  (Level 2 of 5) today, and a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5)
  Thursday. Damaging winds being the primary hazard if storms do
  become strong to severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the remainder of
the week, with upper-level ridging in place across the region.
High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s, with heat
index values above 105F again today and Thursday across much of
the region. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for many counties
in Central Alabama, with only the eastern and southeastern
portions being excluded. Heat indices in these counties will
still likely be over 100F.

A Level 1 Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is maintained
for today and again for tomorrow, mainly across northern and
western counties in Central Alabama. Damaging winds remain the
primary risk. Latest CAMs have indicated the potential for
greater areal coverage today vs. yesterday, with thunderstorms
concentrated along and north of the I-20 corridor. Although this
does not appear to be a widespread event, any storms that do form
in this high CAPE environment will carry a microburst risk.
Thursday looks to have a similar setup to today, with scattered
thunderstorm activity and damaging wind potential primarily
across the northern half of the region.

By the weekend, rain and thunderstorm chances will be on the
increase as the upper-level ridging breaks down. This slight
pattern change will aid the development of more diurnally-driven
afternoon convection and hold high temperatures just to the low
to mid 90s instead.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026

Additional afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated today, as the
region remains on the south fringe of a stout upper-level ridge.
As such, most terminals will carry TEMPO groups through the
afternoon for TSRA. Expect rapid drops in conditions during this
time, with IFR VIS likely. This activity will generally diminish
past 02/02z, with VFR conditions expected area-wide otherwise.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions are expected into the weekend, with
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday.
The main axis of rain activity will shift to the northern half of
Central Alabama today and Thursday. Fire weather concerns remain
low, as winds remain generally light outside of thunderstorms and
humidity levels stay well above critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     76  97  75  97 /  20  30  20  30
Anniston    75  96  74  96 /  20  30  20  30
Birmingham  77  97  77  98 /  20  30  10  20
Tuscaloosa  77  96  77  97 /  20  20  10  20
Calera      76  99  75 100 /  20  20  20  20
Auburn      75  94  75  95 /  20  10  10  10
Montgomery  75  96  75  96 /  20   0  10  10
Troy        74  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-
Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION.../44/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1241 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

ALZ024-011830-
Jefferson AL-
1241 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY THROUGH
130 PM CDT...

At 1241 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mulga, or near Fairfield. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Birmingham, Hoover, Bessemer, Homewood, Hueytown,
Fairfield, Fultondale, Pleasant Grove, Midfield, Adamsville,
Brighton, Lipscomb, Graysville, Sylvan Springs, Brookside, Mulga,
Maytown, West Jefferson, Cardiff, and Birmingham Fairgounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3361 8680 3341 8683 3346 8732 3349 8730
      3348 8729 3350 8729 3350 8726 3353 8727
      3352 8725 3354 8723 3354 8722 3355 8719
      3357 8720 3360 8719 3361 8715 3363 8714
      3363 8710 3366 8709 3366 8706 3373 8704
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 106DEG 4KT 3356 8696

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

56

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
114 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

ALZ015-011900-
Walker AL-
114 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY
THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 113 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gorgas Steam Plant, or 7 miles south of Cordova, moving west at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Sumiton, Cordova, Dora, Parrish, Oakman, Gorgas Steam Plant,
Burnwell, Beloit, Quinton, Gorgas, Goodsprings, Barney, The Wye, and
Tutwiler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
central and west central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3373 8704 3370 8704 3366 8707 3366 8709
      3363 8710 3363 8714 3361 8715 3360 8720
      3357 8720 3355 8719 3354 8723 3352 8725
      3353 8727 3351 8727 3351 8730 3352 8732
      3359 8732 3360 8742 3369 8743 3383 8728
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 105DEG 7KT 3366 8718

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

56