Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026

- There is a risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind
  gusts to impact parts of central Alabama this afternoon and
  evening.

- Less humid conditions are forecast Wednesday through Friday,
  including a break from recent rainy weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026

The complex of thunderstorms we've been advertising the last few
days is currently gaining strength to our north, with the general
trends remaining it dropping south over the course of this
afternoon. A tight axis of high instability values currently
stretches N/S across the state, meaning this complex of storms
will have plenty of energy to sustain itself over the course of
the day. We're running a few hours behind schedule, but the
consensus remains that this complex will work across the region,
following this larger axis of instability towards the coast.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threat with these
strong to severe thunderstorms.

The pattern we've been stuck in these last few weeks will finally
begin to break down on Tuesday, as a cold front starts to work
into the area from the NE, aided by a deepening trough over the
East Coast. Once this front moves through, high pressure will
quickly build in, suppressing rain chances into the weekend. Low
rain chances appear possible as moisture increases into Saturday,
with mostly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
anticipated.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026

Heavy thunderstorms will increase in coverage into the afternoon
and evening hours, with all terminals carrying TEMPO groups for
+TSRA past 01/19z. This activity will generally move N/S into the
evening hours, with additional scattered thunderstorms possible
past 02/03z. Confidence is lower here, with impacts remaining
limited to PROB30 groups. Expect quick drops in conditions with
the heavy activity this afternoon, with conditions clearing into
VFR category behind the main line.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns over the week ahead. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and Tuesday. Rain-
free and less-humid weather is likely Wednesday through Friday.
Moisture values climb again this weekend with at least low
chances for showers and thunderstorms returning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  82  56  79 /  50  30  10   0
Anniston    67  82  58  78 /  40  40  10   0
Birmingham  68  83  60  79 /  50  40  10   0
Tuscaloosa  71  86  64  82 /  50  30  10   0
Calera      68  86  60  81 /  50  40  10   0
Auburn      69  84  62  77 /  30  60  30   0
Montgomery  70  86  63  80 /  30  40  30   0
Troy        70  88  62  79 /  30  40  50   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/