Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
633 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 630 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains in effect through Tuesday
  morning. Damaging winds are the primary severe threat

- A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) is in effect for late tonight, and
  early Wednesday. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are the
  main threats.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains in effect through
  Wednesday afternoon. Damaging winds and hail are the main
  threats with any severe activity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026

A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms is still expected to
sneak into the region by the morning hours on Tuesday, with
continued decaying as time goes on. From here, general showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the early afternoon hours
across the region, as the next threat for severe weather starts
to materialize over the ArkLaTex. Additional storm development is
expected here along the cold front during the late morning, with
these storms sliding east with the cold front later in the
afternoon. Currently, portions of the region remain highlighted
in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5), with damaging winds being the
main threat with any severe storms. With that being said, there
is a narrow window in the late afternoon where an isolated
tornado is possible given singular storm modes, but confidence is
low here. However, storms are expected to quickly grow into a
large cluster, with the bulk of our threat coming from this as it
works into the region.

During this time on Wednesday, the upper-level flow will slip
into a more zonal pattern, slowing the cold front's progress
through the region. Rain chances will slowly drop into Thursday,
as this cold front continues towards the coast. Afternoon highs
on Thursday will generally range in the low to upper-70s, before
falling into the mid and upper-60s on Friday. Our next best
chance for rain appears to be this weekend, when a deep trough
starts to dig through the Great Lakes region, all the way down to
south Texas. Given the stalled front to the south, this will be
the perfect catalyst for additional widespread rain across the
region. At the time of this discussion, this appears to be the
best setup for a good soaking rainfall we've seen recently, with
medium confidence (50%) in 1.5-2.0 inches of rain through late
Saturday.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026

Thunderstorm activity has been increasing across the region this
morning across the northern part of the state. Isolated activity
has been developing across Central Alabama over the last hour so
I have introduced VCTS for all sites over the next few hours.
MVFR conditions are likely to accompany this activity. There
remains a fair amount of uncertainty with the forecast late this
morning through the afternoon hours. Latest CAMs hint at
thunderstorms lingering across our northern terminals through
this afternoon. Due to low confidence, I opted to leave TS out of
the forecast through this evening. We will need to monitor the
trends and amend as necessary through the day. Another upper
level shortwave swings through and will push another round of
rain and thunderstorms through the area generally after 00z. I've
continued with TSRA in the prob30 for the end of the period from
00z-06z for BHM/EET/TCL and 02z-08z for AUO/MGM. Exact terminal
impacts will depend on where the outflow from the morning
activity sets up. If it can manage to push far enough south,
there's some indications that the evening activity will stay
along that boundary or south of it, limiting the TSRA impacts to
the northern sites. However, other guidance suggests this
boundary sets up right over the northern TAF sites, so they will
have a better chance of having the thunderstorm activity in the
evening.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for TCL due to intermittent
observations.

NOTE: Spring seasonal issuance of the TAF for KASN is now being
issued and will run through 04/29 18z.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will increase the next two days, as more organized
systems move into the region. Because of that, there's high
confidence that MinRH values will generally remain above 50%
through Wednesday. However, they will quickly drop right back
into the upper-30 and low-40% range behind the cold front on
Thursday. Despite the forecast rainfall across the area through
midweek, fire weather concerns will remain elevated due to the
persistent widespread drought conditions and critically dry
fuels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     81  60  80  52 /  70  90  80  30
Anniston    80  62  80  54 /  60  90  70  40
Birmingham  82  64  81  57 /  70  90  80  40
Tuscaloosa  83  64  83  57 /  80  90  70  50
Calera      83  64  84  57 /  70  90  70  50
Auburn      82  66  84  62 /  50  80  40  60
Montgomery  86  66  87  62 /  50  70  40  60
Troy        86  64  87  62 /  30  60  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...95/Castillo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
521 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

ALZ020-281045-
Cherokee AL-
521 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY THROUGH
545 AM CDT...

At 521 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles southeast of Ider to near Geraldine.
Movement was east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Little River Canyon National Preserve, Gaylesville, Blanche, Little
River Falls, Western Weiss Lake, Broomtown, Fullerton, New Moon,
Chesterfield, and Little River Canyon NP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 8545 3427 8576 3434 8568 3436 8566
      3437 8563 3439 8562 3440 8563 3440 8561
      3444 8558 3446 8558 3447 8557 3449 8557
      3449 8556 3450 8556 3450 8555 3453 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1021Z 277DEG 47KT 3459 8552 3438 8595

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
549 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

ALZ018-020-281145-
Etowah AL-Cherokee AL-
549 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ETOWAH AND CENTRAL
CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 AM CDT...

At 549 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Summerville to 6 miles
northwest of Sand Rock to 6 miles northeast of McLarty. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gadsden, Centre, Cedar Bluff, Little River Canyon National Preserve,
Centre Municipal Airport, Sardis City, Leesburg, Reece City, Sand
Rock, Gaylesville, Tabor Road, Cherokee Rock Village, Cornwall
Furnace Park, Blanche, Eastern Weiss Lake, Little River Falls,
Slackland, Western Weiss Lake, Weiss Dam, and Yellow Creek Falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8551 3418 8544 3404 8598 3414 8624
      3418 8619 3419 8611 3420 8610 3420 8584
      3424 8584 3424 8581 3426 8581 3426 8577
      3436 8566 3437 8563 3440 8563 3440 8561
      3444 8558 3449 8557 3453 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1049Z 274DEG 34KT 3442 8543 3429 8587 3426 8635

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
558 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

ALZ011-014-281130-
Winston AL-Marion AL-
558 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MARION AND
NORTHWESTERN WINSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 AM CDT...

At 558 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hackleburg, or 12 miles northeast of Hamilton, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Haleyville, Hackleburg, Needmore, Ashridge, Brinn, Bear Creek, Weiss,
Posey Field Airport, Tessner, Delmar, Pebble, and Upper Bear Creek
Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8742 3410 8744 3418 8793 3431 8792
TIME...MOT...LOC 1058Z 274DEG 30KT 3427 8784

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
853 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

ALZ034-281430-
Bibb AL-
853 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BIBB COUNTY THROUGH
930 AM CDT...

At 853 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Centreville, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brent, Centreville, Eoline, Ashby, Brierfield Ironworks Park, West
Centreville, Randolph, Trio, Six Mile, and Bibb County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3309 8723 3309 8695 3308 8695 3308 8693
      3306 8693 3306 8690 3305 8690 3305 8688
      3286 8688 3295 8727
TIME...MOT...LOC 1353Z 274DEG 36KT 3299 8717

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

86/Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1017 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

ALZ012-281545-
Lamar AL-
1017 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTY THROUGH
1045 AM CDT...

At 1017 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bedford, or 9 miles west of Vernon, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Blooming Grove, Lamar County Airport, Bedford, Crossville,
Cody, Hightogy, and Lamar County Public Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3380 8824 3386 8823 3386 8795 3367 8795
      3372 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1517Z 275DEG 33KT 3379 8827

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

86/Martin