Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
114 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 105 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026

 - There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting Central
   Alabama late this afternoon and evening. Threats include
   damaging wind gusts, large hail and a brief tornado. Brief,
   minor flooding may occur in downpours.

 - There is a risk of severe thunderstorms affecting Central
   Alabama late Wednesday. Threats including damaging wind gusts,
   large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Brief, minor flooding
   may occur in downpours.

 - There is a medium to high chance for low temperatures reaching
   the upper 30s Friday morning when conditions may become
   supportive of patchy frost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026

After the slow burn-off this morning, temperatures are rapidly
warming ahead of a shortwave moving through the MS Valley right
now. The main line of showers and storms will slide across
northern MS and work into northwestern Alabama between 5 to 6 PM
and then slide south and east through the early evening. We are
doing an afternoon balloon launch to see if we can better capture
on the environment ahead of this complex. Models are indicating
that this will be a high cape, but low shear event. More of a
typical MCS event for Central Alabama. Look for the complex to
really increase in forward speed this afternoon and evening. The
primary threats for this will be strong winds and some large hail,
however a brief spin up tornado can not be ruled out, especially
on the leading edge of the line and then storm generated
instability.

As the complex of showers and storms work out of the area Tuesday
morning, a shortwave ridge will slide across the Gulf Coast. Thus
temperatures will increase into the low 80s for a large portion
of Central Alabama. Despite the increase in high pressure there
still could be a few showers/storms in the north and eastern
portions of the area.

For Wednesday, a southern-stream shortwave should merge with
another trough just to its north. By late Wednesday, a large,
sharp trough axis will be on our doorstep, allowing for a large
line of showers and thunderstorms. The models continue to show a
slower trend, with it leaning toward generally a night-time event
for Central Alabama. Shear profiles and weak, but sufficient,
instability will offer a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps
a few tornadoes. While this activity will be progressive, high
rainfall rates could cause brief, minor flooding.

A brief dip in temperatures follows Wednesday's storm system. The
coldest period looks to be Friday morning. Guidance has a medium
to high chance for low temperatures slipping into the 30s for
parts of Central Alabama. Forecast winds and relative humidity
suggest patchy frost could be in the cards barring any changes.
Calmer weather conditions are forecast for Saturday and Sunday
with a return to seasonably warm conditions.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026

The next 6 hours should be good in terms of flight conditions.
Still a few pockets of MVFR, but VFR overall. The big story will
unfold late this afternoon into tonight as a complex of storms,
currently moving closer to the MS River, will slide into the area
from the west. Strong to severe storms will be possible at the
northern sites, from 23z to 5z. Included tempo for winds and
storms at TCL/BHM and EET. Continued with prob30 for the southern
sites from 3 to 9z. Confidence on major impacts are lower across
MGM and AUO.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no low RH concerns over the next few days. It wont be
until after Wednesday's strong front that lower dew points return
and promote lower afternoon MinRHs (Thu-Sat in the 30% range).
Winds will be southerly between 5-10 mph on Tuesday, and
southerly around 10-15 mph on Wednesday (shifting to the northwest
overnight). Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast for
late afternoon through tonight, some of which may be severe with
strong wind gusts and large hail. Tuesday is looking quieter and
seasonably warm. A line of showers and thunderstorms is likely
late Wednesday afternoon to night, some of which may be severe. A
period of rain-free weather is forecast late week into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  79  61  82 /  80  30  10  10
Anniston    61  80  62  83 /  80  20  10  10
Birmingham  63  80  65  82 /  80  20  10  20
Tuscaloosa  63  83  64  84 /  60  10  10  20
Calera      63  82  63  84 /  70  10  10  10
Auburn      63  82  63  83 /  70  20  10   0
Montgomery  63  84  64  85 /  40  10  10  10
Troy        63  85  63  85 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
452 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

ALZ012-092215-
Lamar AL-
452 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTY THROUGH 515
PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Vernon, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Bedford, Blooming Grove, Crossville, Hightogy, and Lamar
County Public Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3383 8824 3384 8795 3368 8795 3370 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 273DEG 42KT 3376 8817

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

87/Grantham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
500 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

ALZ011-092230-
Marion AL-
500 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 500 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hackleburg, or 10 miles north of Hamilton, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Haleyville, Hackleburg, Bear Creek, Pigeye, Tessner, and Upper Bear
Creek Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8770 3431 8764 3430 8763 3418 8763
      3415 8764 3421 8806 3432 8803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 274DEG 38KT 3429 8794

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

87/Grantham

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