Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
138 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 131 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026

- Heat: High temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s combined with
  high humidity will produce heat indices exceeding 105 degrees
  through Saturday. A heat advisory remains in effect through 9 PM
  Saturday.

- Thunderstorms: Northern portions of the region are under a
  Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today.
  Damaging winds will be the main threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026

The main upper-level ridge center point continues to break down,
allowing for us to enter into the weekend under a much more
disorganized pattern. With that being said, things won't change
all that much for us at the surface level. Hot and humid
conditions are expected through the weekend, keeping afternoon
instability values very high. This will allow for scattered,
diurnally driven thunderstorm activity to remain in the forecast,
with most of this activity starting to decrease once the sun
sets. Given the "copy and paste" nature of this parameter space,
the threat for a strong to severe storm in the afternoon remains,
albeit with lower probabilities. Damaging winds remain the main
threat, in the event one does end up becoming severe.

The upper-level pattern will become slightly more organized by
late Sunday afternoon, as a weak trough begins to move through
the Midwest and Great Lakes region. The tail end of this trough
should work into the Tennessee river valley during this time,
increasing rain chances across the region into Monday. A very
welcomed side effect to this increase in precipitation will be
the increased cloud cover that comes along with it. Because of
this, afternoon high temperatures should start to slowly drop
into the low-90's by Tuesday, with a few locations dropping into
the upper-80's. This is where high temperatures look to settle,
with low-90's expected for much of the upcoming workweek.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms remain in the forecast as well,
favoring the aforementioned diurnally driven activity we're
expecting for most of the weekend.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again today
under a very unstable airmass. Given the nature and location of
this activity, confidence is only high enough to carry
PROB30 groups at TCL, BHM, and EET through 04/02z. Reduced VIS is
also expected past 04/08z given the recent rainfall, with most
terminals falling into MVFR category through 04/14z.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions are expected into next week, with daily
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather
concerns remain low, as winds remain generally light outside of
thunderstorms, and humidity levels stay well above critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  95  74  94 /  20  20  20  50
Anniston    74  94  74  93 /  20  20  20  50
Birmingham  76  95  75  94 /  20  20  20  50
Tuscaloosa  76  95  75  93 /  20  20  20  50
Calera      75  97  75  96 /  10  20  20  50
Auburn      75  94  75  92 /  10  20  20  40
Montgomery  76  95  76  94 /  10  20  10  40
Troy        74  95  74  93 /   0  20  10  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following
counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes-
Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-
Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following
counties: Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Clay-Cleburne-Lee-Macon-Pike-
Randolph-Russell.

&&

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
538 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

ALZ017-026-032315-
St. Clair AL-Blount AL-
538 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BLOUNT AND WEST
CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 537 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Inland Lake, or 8 miles northwest of Springville, moving north at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oneonta, Springville, Blountsville, Cleveland, Dallas, Locust Fork,
Susan Moore, Allgood, Fairview, Nectar, Rosa, County Line, Inland
Lake, Bangor, Highland Lake, Easley, Chamblees Mill, Holly Springs,
Remlap, and Fowler Spring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 8644 3374 8641 3374 8654 3377 8654
      3377 8665 3378 8665 3381 8671 3397 8677
      3399 8676 3400 8674 3403 8672 3403 8670
      3406 8671 3405 8668 3407 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 172DEG 14KT 3384 8658

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
609 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

ALZ014-032345-
Winston AL-
609 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WINSTON COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 609 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Arley. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Arley, Double Springs, Addison, Houston Recreational Area, Camp
McDowell, Nesmith, Smith Lake, Poplar Springs, Helicon, Sardis,
Corinth Rec Area, Falls City, Houston, Mill Branch, Maple Branch,
Hullett Branch, Clear Creek, Winston County Airport, Cane Creek, and
Little Dismal Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3402 8711 3399 8731 3400 8744 3411 8751
      3424 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 329DEG 3KT 3409 8723

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
626 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

ALZ017-024-025-040000-
Jefferson AL-Shelby AL-Blount AL-
626 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BLOUNT...NORTH
CENTRAL SHELBY AND EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 626 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Blount Springs to The Summit. These storms were
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Hoover, Vestavia Hills, Homewood, Pelham, Mountain Brook,
Trussville, Gardendale, Irondale, Leeds, Chelsea, Fultondale, Dallas,
Center Point, Clay, Pinson, Tarrant, Warrior, Kimberly, and Indian
Springs Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8663 3331 8659 3335 8686 3390 8693
      3392 8692 3392 8689 3394 8688 3393 8686
      3395 8684 3394 8682 3396 8682 3395 8679
      3396 8679 3397 8677 3399 8676 3400 8674
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 157DEG 4KT 3391 8678 3344 8674

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen