Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
254 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 246 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern will be in place with periods of
  rainfall expected at times across Central Alabama. Rainfall
  totals of 2 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts possible
  through Saturday.

- Severe Weather Threat: There is a level 1 to 2, out of 5, risk
  for severe weather through tonight. The main threat will be
  damaging winds and brief spin up tornadoes. The threat is mainly
  across southeastern Alabama.

- There is also a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather on
  Friday as the cold front works south into the area. The main
  threat will be damaging winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

Widespread rainfall is occurring across much of the area this
afternoon and will continue through the rest of the afternoon.
The remnants of Arthur should exit eastward later this evening.
Until then we will continue to have some gusty winds in any
stronger convection bands. Also, weak spin-up tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. While lightning coverage is lower, isolated embedded
thunderstorms remain possible.

High rain chances linger into Friday as a surface front moves
into the area and stalls. This will help to modify the tropical
airmass with more thunder expected. A few marginally severe
storms, with winds the main concern, may occur as well with just
frontal forcing to assist. The front is expected to stall
somewhere across the midsection of the area on Saturday. Guidance
still indicates higher QPF as a result of rain chances sticking
around for the weekend. Our flood watch may need to be extended
into Saturday if this trend continues. By Sunday, weak upper flow
will allow for the stalled boundary to push back northward with
yet again more onshore flow. Temperatures will slowly creep back
up, and zonal upper flow disturbances enhanced by daytime heating
will contribute to diurnal convection for Sunday into Monday.
Extended guidance has a low to medium chance of yet another front
moving into the Deep South by the end of the extended Tuesday
into Wednesday. This system too has a decent chance of stalling
with zonal to west-northwest upper flow to only support meager
advancement across Alabama by the middle of next week, and it
will keep rain chances around.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026

The messy day for TAFs continue across all of Central Alabama.
Tried to time out some of the convective patterns and wind
increases with tempo wording through next 6 hours. Widespread rain
end from west to east after 00z, with an additional round of
showers and perhaps a few storms at MGM and AUO, so included
prob30s here. Outside of the convection, MVFR ceilings are
already in place across all terminals with the exception of AUO
where IFR is prevailing. MVFR will persist through the day with
all sites dropping to IFR overnight. Ceilings will be slow to
improve Friday morning. Southerly winds will gradually increase
with gusts from 20-25 knots likely this afternoon.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Increased rain chances continue as we will remain in a wet
pattern through early next week. Ample moisture in place will
keep MinRH values above 50% through the entire forecast period.
Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  86  65  85 /  70  40  10  30
Anniston    71  85  67  85 /  90  60  20  40
Birmingham  70  86  68  85 /  70  60  20  60
Tuscaloosa  72  86  71  85 /  50  70  50  70
Calera      71  88  69  87 /  70  70  40  70
Auburn      71  83  71  85 / 100  70  50  60
Montgomery  71  84  71  84 / 100  80  60  80
Troy        71  84  71  85 / 100  80  70  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Greene-Hale-
Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-
Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-
Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa.

&&

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ALZ049-181745-
Pike AL-
1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY THROUGH
1245 PM CDT...

At 1216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brundidge, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Brundidge, Banks, Tennille, Tarentum, Brundidge Municipal Airport,
Hamilton Crossroads, and Monticello.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 8600 3187 8579 3178 8567 3176 8567
      3174 8570 3171 8571 3169 8572 3165 8572
      3162 8575 3162 8598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 219DEG 27KT 3164 8587

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ALZ046-049-181815-
Pike AL-Bullock AL-
1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL PIKE AND SOUTHWESTERN
BULLOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM CDT...

At 1245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Banks, or 7 miles north of Brundidge, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Troy, Banks, Pickett, Linwood, Troy University, Beans Crossroads,
Tanyard, China Grove, Sandfield, Monticello, Perote, and Josie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for southeastern
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 8599 3206 8599 3203 8557 3194 8562
      3191 8565 3188 8566 3186 8568 3185 8568
      3181 8570
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 193DEG 25KT 3183 8584

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
134 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ALZ045-046-048-050-181915-
Macon AL-Bullock AL-Russell AL-Barbour AL-
134 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BULLOCK...
SOUTHEASTERN MACON...NORTH CENTRAL BARBOUR AND SOUTHWESTERN RUSSELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 133 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Barbour County Public Lake Dam, or 8 miles southeast of Midway,
moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hurtsboro, Midway, Russell County Sports Complex, Uchee, Spring Hill,
Seale, Comer, Barbour County Public Lake Dam, Guerryton, White Oak,
Batesville, Creek Stand, Rutherford, Hatchechubbe, and Mount Andrew.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southeastern
and east central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3189 8530 3192 8554 3243 8553 3236 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 191DEG 39KT 3199 8543

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

12/Robinson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
208 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ALZ047-048-181945-
Lee AL-Russell AL-
208 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN LEE AND NORTHERN RUSSELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 207 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Russell County Sports Complex, or 13 miles northeast of Hurtsboro,
moving north at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Phenix City, Smiths, Smiths Station, Beulah, Russell County Sports
Complex, Uchee, Seale, Beans Mill, Ladonia, Bleecker, Griffen Mill,
Monterey Heights, Hatchechubbe, Ladonia Sports Complex, Fort
Mitchell, Phenix Drag Strip, and Parkmanville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southeastern
and east central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 8508 3226 8540 3275 8528 3274 8512
      3273 8511 3272 8512 3269 8512 3266 8509
      3265 8511 3263 8508 3262 8509 3258 8507
      3250 8500 3246 8500 3243 8497
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 201DEG 44KT 3235 8523

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

12/Robinson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
251 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ALZ018>021-182045-
Calhoun AL-Etowah AL-Cleburne AL-Cherokee AL-
251 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CALHOUN...ETOWAH...
NORTHEASTERN CLEBURNE AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 251 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Steele to 6 miles southeast of Glencoe to
near Pleasant Gap. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gadsden, Jacksonville, Rainbow City, Attalla, Piedmont, Hokes Bluff,
Centre, Cedar Bluff, Little River Canyon National Preserve, Forney,
Centre Municipal Airport, Glencoe, Leesburg, Reece City, Sand Rock,
Gaylesville, Cherokee Rock Village, Pleasant Gap, Cornwall Furnace
Park, and Blanche.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 8551 3382 8537 3378 8539 3380 8589
      3385 8605 3398 8619 3399 8622 3420 8610
      3420 8584 3424 8584 3424 8581 3426 8577
      3437 8563 3444 8558 3449 8557 3453 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 207DEG 37KT 3392 8617 3389 8584 3396 8548

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

12/Robinson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
259 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

ALZ044>046-049-050-182100-
Pike AL-Montgomery AL-Macon AL-Bullock AL-Barbour AL-
259 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PIKE...BULLOCK...MACON...
MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHWESTERN BARBOUR COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Montgomery to Ramer to near Rutledge. Movement
was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Montgomery, Troy, Tuskegee, Union Springs, Brundidge, Clio,
Midway, Goshen, Meadville, Milstead, Pike Road, Louisville, Shorter,
Banks, Franklin, Pickett, Dublin, Auburn University In Montgomery,
Lake Tuskegee, and Beans Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south
central, southeastern and east central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8618 3166 8615 3179 8615 3179 8620
      3189 8617 3196 8618 3197 8626 3231 8629
      3245 8619 3243 8619 3243 8613 3241 8605
      3243 8600 3245 8599 3245 8589 3248 8585
      3249 8580 3248 8544 3162 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 215DEG 45KT 3231 8623 3207 8620 3170 8636

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

12/Robinson