Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
325 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026

- Elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast for
  most of this week.

- High temperatures will climb back up this week starting Tuesday
  with readings from the middle 80s to the lower 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026

Surface high pressure continues to deteriorate with only weak
Southeast US ridging into the Western Atlantic. Onshore flow
continues around into Alabama with a cloud filled satellite
picture. The radar is indicating numerous showers along with a
few embedded thunderstorms. Temperatures will nudge upward
through next week outside of areas of convection starting
Tuesday. The current wet pattern with daily shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue through this week.

In the upper levels, the upper low that we have been writing
about recently has opened up and is now situated over the Central
Plains this afternoon. It will continue to push northeastward
through the general flow and also build southward into a trough
to over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Through the short
term, shortwave disturbances will propagate periodically around a
Deep South and Gulf upper ridge being influenced by the building
trough. By Tuesday, this upper trough/shortwave progresses into a
larger trough stretching from Eastern Canada, extending southward
across Eastern Conus and into the Deep South. The latest guidance
is a bit slower than yesterday not progressing the Eastern Conus
trough to the Atlantic Coast until mid week. At the same time,
the Deep South upper ridge would retrograde back over Texas and
portions of the Deep South. The result for Central Alabama would
be the shifting of our main precipitation axis slightly eastward
but still with isolated to scattered diurnally enhanced convection
chances for the latter half of next week. The far extended
guidance suggests a front trying to push into the Deep South by
next weekend. However, with the zonal flow set up from late week
flat upper ridging, there will not be good upper support for
southern progress of this system.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026

Cigs are MVFR to VFR across Central Alabama sites currently with
areas of SHRA scattered about the area this afternoon with a few
isolated TS areas with upper shortwave activity and an overall wet
pattern. High probabilities for SHRA will continue this afternoon
and will begin to slowly decrease in coverage as the night
progresses as the main precipitation axis shifts some to the
north. Reduced VSBYs will be noted at times with the rain.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected for
much of this week. Because of that, MinRH values will remain
above 50% or higher as well this week. Given daily rain chances
and high MinRH values, fire weather concerns remain little to
none at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  81  68  85 /  60  70  40  60
Anniston    70  80  68  84 /  50  70  40  70
Birmingham  70  82  69  87 /  50  60  20  50
Tuscaloosa  72  84  71  89 /  50  50  20  20
Calera      70  84  68  89 /  50  50  20  40
Auburn      70  83  70  86 /  30  30  30  40
Montgomery  71  85  71  89 /  40  30  10  20
Troy        70  86  71  89 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08