Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
656 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this evening.
  Potential exists for significant hazards, including hail up to
  tennis ball size, damaging winds up to 80 mph, and a few
  tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong.

- Warm, humid, and windy today. Then cooler with near-daily
  shower and thunderstorm chances through the rest of this week
  and into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Severe risk remains elevated over northwest and central North
Dakota, where Tornado Watch continues. Did end up trimming off a
few counties in the southwest (Stark southward) where boundary
has passed into and temperature/dewpoint continue to drop off.
In the area still under the watch, very strong instability
remains in place, particularly over north central North Dakota
dipping a bit into south central where CAPE values of around
3000-4000 J/Kg are noted.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Numerous severe thunderstorms remain the expectation for this
afternoon and evening with all threats on the table.

Currently, elongated low pressure is analyzed over the western
Dakotas. Potent shortwave energy is in the process of lifting up
through the Northern Plains, while previously stationary
surface frontal boundary has lifted northward into Canada as a
warm frontal boundary. This warm frontal boundary has advected
very warm and moist air into the state. North to south
orientated cold frontal boundary off said low will rapidly slide
west to east across the state this afternoon and evening. This
will force widespread thunderstorm activity with numerous severe
thunderstorms likely.

One of the biggest questions remains in regard to storm mode. With
the cold fropa, normally a more linear mode would be favored.
However, with 0 to 6 km bulk shear favoring a 45 degree angle in
relation to the front, it seems a more clustered mode is
likely. What may wind up happening in the end is a line of
embedded supercells develops. Especially as it heads east
towards an even more favored severe weather environment.
Therefore, the current thinking is that discrete cells may
develop in western North Dakota by mid-afternoon. These will
likely transition into some form of line with the question being
whether it's a more traditional QLCS, or a line of embedded
supercells. Should the latter wind up being the case, then a
tornado and large hail threat would persist longer than
otherwise would be anticipated. Besides storm mode, curved
hodographs are highly favorable towards tornado genesis for any
discrete cells and within any QLCS. As such, believe the SPC
hatched 10 percent tornado outlook is reasonable, though the
highest SigTOR parameter highlights northern ND during the
middle of the afternoon and eastern, especially northeastern, ND
late this afternoon and evening.

Once the main line passes through, isolated to scattered showers
and a few sub-severe thunderstorms are possible through
Wednesday morning. After which, mostly dry conditions are
expected during the afternoon and evening. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are then possible from west to east late
Wednesday night through Thursday as another shortwave off upper
Canadian low passes through. These thunderstorms are expected to
remain sub-severe at this time. A few occasional showers and
thunderstorms are then periodically possible through the
remainder of the week.

Much cooler temperatures are expected beyond today through the
remainder of the week with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s.
Simultaneously, lows will also be in the 40s for most locations,
most nights beyond tonight. Breezy to windy conditions are also
on tap for most days to finish out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Widespread severe thunderstorms this evening primarily over
northwest North Dakota into central North Dakota and the James
RIver Valley. Heavy rain will reduce visibility to IFR
conditions or lower, while MFVR/IFR ceilings are possibly with
any showers and thunderstorms. Very gusty and erratic winds,
hail, and a few tornadoes are possible with these storms. Used
PROB30s and TEMPOs as needed based on the highest confidence of
severe weather timing.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...JJS

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