Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
229 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this
  afternoon. A few storms could be severe.

- Windy on Tuesday, with near-critical to critical fire weather
  conditions across southwest and south central North Dakota.

- Unseasonably warm and humid today, then cooler Tuesday and
  Wednesday. A brief warm up on Thursday could be followed by
  much cooler temperatures next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A dynamic system continues impacting the forecast area. Currently,
surface low is located over eastern Montana/southwestern North
Dakota, while upper low is primarily over north central Montana
propagating into south central Canada. For the most part,
thunderstorms from earlier today have exited the CWA. However,
another severe weather threat persists this afternoon, and seems
especially focused along and west of Highway 83 where skies
cleared out quicker in the day. RAP analysis suggests a narrow
corridor of enhanced instability this afternoon that will be
collocated with 40 to 50 kts of deep layer shear. Wherever this
ultimately sets up would be the primary focus for severe
weather. With bulk shear vectors generally perpendicular to the
frontal boundary off the surface low, supercells are possible
that could lead to large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or
two cannot be ruled out, especially near the surface low.

By this evening, any remaining instability should rapidly decrease
as dry air moves in, while CIN increases. Thus any severe weather
threat should also diminish as the sun sets. After which, a few
showers are possible mainly in the north on Tuesday, with additional
rain chances overnight. Gusty westerly winds will develop Tuesday
as the surface low lifts northeast, especially in the northern
half of the state. Though pressure rises and CAA advection
aren't the strongest, there was enough confidence to issue a
Wind Advisory for most counties north of I94.

For Tuesday, the strongest winds are not collocated with the
driest air. Still, critical fire weather conditions are
possible in the far southwest. In addition, near critical
conditions are expected in the remainder of the southwest and
south central. Drier conditions and breezy winds could once
again produce near critical to critical fire weather conditions
across much of the southwest and south central on Thursday.

Beyond Tuesday, mostly dry conditions are favored through the
remainder of the workweek. After which, widespread
precipitation chances return Sunday and into early next week.
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be seasonable before
another brief warm-up Thursday. A cooling trend is then expected
this weekend and into early next week with highs possibly in
the upper 50s and 60s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms persist in eastern,
central, and parts of northwestern North Dakota early this
afternoon. Additional development is possible as the afternoon
goes on, which could lead to severe weather including gusty and
erratic winds, as well as large hail. Placing exactly where
these storms will develop remains a challenge so maintained
PROB30s as needed. Shower and thunderstorm activity should
rapidly diminish as the sun sets. Tuesday morning will be
mostly dry, though gusty westerly winds will begin to develop,
especially north of I94.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
Tuesday for NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>019-022-023-025-
055>058.

&&

DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
544 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044-082245-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
444 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
Potential hazards include large hail up to golf ball size,
damaging winds up to 70 mph, torrential rain, and perhaps a
tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong west winds are expected on Tuesday.

Critical fire weather conditions are possible both Tuesday and
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ020-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-059>062-082245-
Oliver-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-Western Morton-Eastern Morton-Western Sioux-
Eastern Sioux-
544 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 /444 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through
this evening. Potential hazards include large hail up to golf ball
size, damaging winds up to 70 mph, torrential rain, and perhaps a
tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong west winds are expected on Tuesday.

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of
southwest and south central North Dakota on Tuesday, and are
possible again on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ001-009-017>019-025-082245-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Foster-
544 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 /444 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and
southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through
this evening. Potential hazards include large hail up to golf ball
size, damaging winds up to 70 mph, torrential rain, and perhaps a
tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A Wind Advisory is in effect Tuesday afternoon. See
weather.gov/bis for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ002>005-010-012-013-022-023-055>058-082245-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-McHenry-Pierce-
Sheridan-Wells-Northwest Ward-
Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-Western McLean-
Eastern McLean-
544 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, and south central North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is out until 11pm. See weather.gov for
more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A Wind Advisory is in effect Tuesday afternoon. See
weather.gov/bis for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
207 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 AM     Rain             Watford City            47.80N 103.28W
09/07/2026  M1.30 Inch       McKenzie           ND   Broadcast Media

            Relayed through broadcast media.

&&

JAA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
208 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 PM     Rain             1 E Minot Air Force Bas 48.42N 101.33W
09/07/2026  M1.39 Inch       Ward               ND   AWOS

            AWOS station KMIB Minot AFB.

&&

JAA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
209 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     Rain             2 NE Minot              48.25N 101.27W
09/07/2026  M1.30 Inch       Ward               ND   ASOS

            ASOS station KMOT Minot Airport.

&&

JAA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
210 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     Rain             11 SSE Williston        48.02N 103.49W
09/07/2026  M1.00 Inch       Williams           ND   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GW7395 WILLISTON.

&&

JAA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
224 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     Hail             11 NNE Alexander        47.98N 103.53W
09/06/2026  M1.25 Inch       McKenzie           ND   Trained Spotter

&&

JAA

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