Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Bismarck, ND

122 
WWUS53 KBIS 051436
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
936 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

NDC009-049-069-079-051515-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0331.000000T0000Z-260905T1515Z/
Bottineau ND-McHenry ND-Pierce ND-Rolette ND-
936 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOTTINEAU, NORTHEASTERN MCHENRY, NORTHWESTERN PIERCE
AND SOUTHWESTERN ROLETTE COUNTIES...

At 936 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Willow City, or
14 miles southeast of Bottineau, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Willow City, Barton, Barton City, Gardena, Overly and Omemee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4864 10065 4887 10034 4869 9985 4839 10009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1421Z 302DEG 23KT 4870 10044

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Anglin

027 
WWUS53 KBIS 051450
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
950 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

NDC009-049-069-079-051515-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0331.000000T0000Z-260905T1515Z/
Bottineau ND-McHenry ND-Pierce ND-Rolette ND-
950 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOTTINEAU, NORTHEASTERN MCHENRY, NORTHWESTERN PIERCE
AND SOUTHWESTERN ROLETTE COUNTIES...

At 950 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles north of
Barton, or 18 miles northwest of Rugby, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Willow City, Barton, Barton City, Overly and Omemee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4864 10065 4872 10034 4881 10017 4869 9985
      4839 10009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1436Z 302DEG 23KT 4864 10031

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Anglin

420 
WWUS53 KBIS 051507
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1007 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

NDC009-049-069-079-051517-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0331.000000T0000Z-260905T1515Z/
Bottineau ND-McHenry ND-Pierce ND-Rolette ND-
1007 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BOTTINEAU, NORTHEASTERN MCHENRY, NORTHWESTERN PIERCE AND
SOUTHWESTERN ROLETTE COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4864 10065 4872 10034 4881 10017 4869 9985
      4839 10009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1450Z 302DEG 23KT 4859 10020

$$

Anglin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
638 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
  are expected through the holiday weekend. A few storms may be
  strong to severe. The highest chances for showers and storms
  are from Sunday night into Labor Day.

- Unseasonably warm and humid through the holiday weekend, then
  trending cooler.

- Windy on Tuesday, with near-critical fire weather conditions
  in southwest North Dakota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A cluster of strong thunderstorms continues to slowly propagate
eastward along the Canadian border in north central North
Dakota. The most prominent hazard with these storms is
torrential rainfall causing localized flooding of urban, low-
lying, and poor-drainage areas. Isolated instances of wind gusts
to around 40 mph and hail up to the size of nickels are also
possible. With stout low level warm air advection and moisture
transport forecast to remain in place, it seems likely these
storms will persist, departing our forecast area around mid
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A mid to upper level ridge axis resides over the Red River
Valley early this morning, with a lee surface trough/low
analyzed over far eastern Montana. A strong low level jet
underneath the mid/upper ridge supplying warm air advection and
moisture transport has produced a corridor of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms from northwest North Dakota through the
James River Valley. Storms in the northwest have been strong to
severe at times and are producing torrential rainfall. This
activity is likely to persist and continue drifting eastward
through the morning as low level flow remains southerly.

The lee trough/low is forecast to slide into the western
Dakotas today, accompanied by the thermal ridge. Highs in the
90s are forecast along and to the south and west of the
Missouri River, hottest in the southwest where lower dewpoints
are forecast. Areas along and to the north and east of the
river are likely to see daytime dewpoints in the mid 60s to
lower 70s, which could push maximum heat indices near 100 along
the Missouri River Valley, south of Lake Sakakawea.
Deterministic guidance notes persistent low level warm air
advection in the eastern half of the state throughout the day
today, with subtle shortwave impulses climbing the top of the
ridge. Because of this forcing, daytime convection aside from
what is ongoing this morning cannot be ruled out. But rising
mid level height tendencies along with very strong MLCIN seem
likely to suppress convective initiation through the afternoon,
which is the outcome that has the greatest support from CAMs.
If a surface or mixed-layer based storm were to develop, it
could have access to at least 3000 J/kg CAPE and deep layer
shear around 30-40 kts. This leaves a conditional risk for
isolated severe thunderstorms in the forecast for today. For
this evening into tonight, the low level jet could once again
initiate elevated convection. This seems most likely to occur
over the southern half of the state where warm air advection is
strongest, but the RAP also shows a strong plume of poleward
theta-e advection across the north. Most CAMs predict that any
nocturnal elevated convection is unlikely to tap into the
maximum potential buoyancy and shear, but the 06Z HRRR is a
noted outlier in bringing a cluster of strong to severe storms
through south central and southeast North Dakota this evening.

The lee surface low is forecast to sag southward and settle
over the Black Hills on Sunday, maintaining a broad southeast
to easterly surface flow reinforcing the moisture-rich air mass.
The NBM keeps highs in the 80s to lower 90s, but this seems a
little too warm conceptually. It will nevertheless be another
unseasonably warm and very humid day, with dewpoints remaining
in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The convective forecast during the
day Sunday is similar to that of today, with two exceptions
being 1) falling rather than rising mid level height tendencies
and 2) stronger deep layer shear. But the lack of a strong
forcing mechanism combined with strong CIN keeps thunderstorm
probabilities low until later in the day Sunday, although the
NBM does maintain a broad expanse of 30 to 40 percent PoPs
across all but southwest North Dakota. Heading into Sunday
night, shortwave energy ejecting from the base of a deep
western CONUS longwave trough will reach the Northern High
Plains, resulting in increased probabilities for showers and
thunderstorms. CAMs that reach this forecast time range do
support a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms, favoring
western North Dakota during the evening hours. These storms
would likely be rooted at the base of an elevated mixed layer
with strong MUCAPE and effective bulk shear.

On Monday, a closed upper low sitting at the base of the
western CONUS trough is forecast to lift northeastward and
interact with a shortwave ejecting northeast off the Northern
Rockies and a separate upper low over southern British Columbia.
Broad lee cyclogenesis combined with strong low level warm air
advection and mid level height falls will bring much higher
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the state late
Sunday night through Labor Day. Ensemble guidance still favors
the northern half of the state for higher rainfall amounts as
southwest and south central North Dakota remain favored to be
dry slotted. However, prior to the arrival of the dry slot,
deterministic guidance is beginning to hone in on a strong cold
frontal passage that could potentially support an all hazards
severe event if requisite ingredients can become spatially and
temporally aligned.

The strongest vort max is forecast to swing from Montana to
Manitoba Monday night into Tuesday, but the dry slot from the
preceding cyclone could keep all but far northern parts of our
forecast area rain free over this time period. Cooler high
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s northwest to near 80
south central and southeast are in the forecast for Tuesday, as
are strong westerly winds with the NBM and ECMWF EFI already
advertising medium probabilities for reaching advisory criteria.
The strong winds could also introduce fire weather concerns on
Tuesday, particularly in the southwest where the lowest RH is
forecast. After Tuesday, ensemble clusters show a variety of
synoptic-pattern solutions contingent on the existence and
placement of a southern US dome of high pressure. The NBM tends
to favor near normal temperatures over this timeframe with
little to no chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
throughout the forecast period, mainly across the eastern two
thirds of North Dakota. Confidence in if and/or when a shower
or storm could move over a terminal remains very low. The
strongest storms could produce heavy rain reducing visibility
to IFR levels, erratic wind gusts, and small hail. VFR
conditions are otherwise expected to prevail through the
forecast period, although there is a low chance of MVFR/IFR
ceilings developing from KMOT to KJMS this morning. Winds will
primarily be southeasterly to easterly around 10-15 kts. Low
level wind shear is expected at KBIS until mid morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Hollan
AVIATION...Hollan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
523 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-
040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062-061030-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-Northwest Ward-Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-
Western McLean-Eastern McLean-Western Morton-Eastern Morton-
Western Sioux-Eastern Sioux-
523 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026 /423 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible today through tonight. A few
storms may be strong to severe, with large hail, gusty winds, and
torrential rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Isolated strong severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday through
Labor Day.

Strong west winds are possible on Tuesday, which may lead to
near-critical fire weather conditions in southwest parts of the
state.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

Hollan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
744 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

NDZ004-051315-
Bottineau ND-
744 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY
UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

At 744 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Souris, or 16 miles northwest of Bottineau, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Westhope, Souris, Landa, Roth, Pelican Point State Recreation Area
  and Lake Metigoshe State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4887 10068 4887 10123 4900 10120 4900 10026
      4897 10025
TIME...MOT...LOC 1243Z 251DEG 27KT 4900 10065

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Anglin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
811 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

NDZ004-005-051345-
Bottineau ND-Rolette ND-
811 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ROLETTE AND
NORTHEASTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 845 AM CDT...

At 811 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Bottineau, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Bottineau, Dunseith, International Peace Garden, Homen State
  Forest, Butte St. Paul State Recreation Area, Pelican Point State
  Recreation Area, Lake Metigoshe State Park, Carbury and Thorne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4873 10071 4894 10055 4900 10046 4900 9992
      4870 9993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1311Z 275DEG 27KT 4895 10033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Anglin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
814 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

NDZ004-051345-
Bottineau ND-
814 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL BOTTINEAU COUNTY
UNTIL 845 AM CDT...

At 814 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Souris, or 17 miles northwest of Bottineau, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Westhope, Souris, Landa, Roth and Carbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4884 10105 4900 10101 4900 10043 4880 10062
TIME...MOT...LOC 1314Z 260DEG 28KT 4897 10074

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Anglin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
815 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

NDZ005-051345-
Rolette ND-
815 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ROLETTE COUNTY
UNTIL 845 AM CDT...

At 815 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
St. John, or 31 miles east of Bottineau, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Rolla, St. John, Belcourt and Turtle Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4885 10002 4900 9996 4900 9953 4879 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 1315Z 263DEG 28KT 4893 9979

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Anglin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
841 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

NDZ004-051415-
Bottineau ND-
841 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY
UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

At 841 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Souris, or 11 miles northwest of Bottineau, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Bottineau, Souris, Carbury, Roth, Pelican Point State Recreation
  Area and Lake Metigoshe State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4882 10091 4900 10090 4900 10028 4875 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 1341Z 274DEG 19KT 4894 10062

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Anglin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
843 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

NDZ005-013-051415-
Pierce ND-Rolette ND-
843 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ROLETTE AND
NORTHWESTERN PIERCE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

At 843 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Barton, or 9 miles northwest of Rugby, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Rugby, Barton and Barton City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4837 10021 4855 10019 4855 10015 4861 10015
      4865 9982 4837 9981 4837 9985 4829 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 1342Z 266DEG 20KT 4848 10011

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Anglin