Severe Thunderstorm Warning 325, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
535 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms across northwest and
  central North Dakota this morning and afternoon. A few storms
  may be strong to severe, mainly in north central North
  Dakota.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible in far
  southwest North Dakota on Friday.

- Temperatures warming to well above normal through Saturday,
  then cooling back to near or slightly below normal early to
  mid next week.

- Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday
  through Labor Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The Northern Plains lie under southwest flow aloft early this
morning between a transient ridge exiting the Red River Valley
and a deep longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. A nearly-
stacked low pressure system is depicted on water vapor imagery
spinning northward through southern Alberta, with a separate
surface low analyzed in southeast Montana. A broad expanse of
low level warm air advection and moisture transport downstream
of these features has ignited areas of showers and
thunderstorms. One cluster of widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms has been migrating eastward across south
central North Dakota into the James River Valley. Meanwhile,
clusters of much stronger thunderstorms were moving through
northwest and north central parts of the state as of 5 AM CDT.
These strong to at times severe storms are moving through an
environment with up to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and effective bulk shear
as high as 40-50 kts. Convective evolution through this
afternoon is uncertain, and CAMs offer little consistency in
potential outcomes. The ongoing convection may continue to lift
northeastward into southern Canada by this afternoon. Some CAMs
then hint at trailing redevelopment in north central North
Dakota this afternoon as an upper level jet streak lifts
northeast off the Rockies, but there are obvious questions on
how the environment may be modified by morning convection.
Model soundings and two-dimensional CIN fields suggest a
capping inversion is likely to keep storms elevated through the
day, but UH fields in the HREF broadly support strong to severe
convection in north central North Dakota this afternoon with a
similar CAPE/shear parameter space as mentioned above. Storm
mode could be mixed or clustered as there is no well-defined
surface boundary where convection is forecast, so will leave
our projected hazards at hail up to ping pong ball size and
winds up to 60 mph. Torrential rainfall could also caused
localized flooding, as has already been observed in Williston
and southwest Ward County early this morning.

Mid to upper level ridging is forecast to amplify over the
Northern Plains on Friday as a deep upper low spins over the
Pacific Northwest. This brings the high temperature forecast
into the 90s along and to the south and west of the Missouri
River, along with a strengthening southeast surface flow around
20 to 25 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is forecast to fall
below 30 percent south of the Missouri River, with minimum
values closer to 15 percent in the far southwest along the
Montana border. The greatest overlap in strong winds and low RH
is in Slope and Bowman Counties, where a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for Friday afternoon and early evening. Surrounding
areas in west central and southwest North Dakota could see near-
critical fire weather conditions on Friday.

The ridge is forecast to become even more amplified on
Saturday, with forecast highs ranging from the mid and upper
80s north to lower and mid 90s south. The low level jet could
induce convection over parts of the region late Friday night
into Saturday morning, but mostly dry weather is otherwise
anticipated from tonight until Saturday night when the deep
western CONUS trough begins kicking shortwave energy into the
Northern Plains. This culminates in widespread low to medium
shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday through Labor Day as a
more potent shortwave lifts northeastward over the region while
the original Pacific Northwest low spins toward the Canadian
Rockies. Temperatures are favored to trend cooler early to mid
next week as the upper low crosses southern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across
northwest and central North Dakota this morning and afternoon.
A few stronger storms are possible near KMOT, with erratic
gusty winds and hail. Categorical flight restrictions to
MVFR/IFR are possible with any thunderstorm, mainly from
visibility reductions caused by heavy rainfall, but also
possibly from lower ceilings. Outside of showers and storms,
VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the forecast
period. Winds will primarily be easterly to southeasterly until
a center of low pressure begins to move across the state later
this morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
evening for NDZ040-043.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hollan
AVIATION...Hollan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
520 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

NDZ040-043-041030-
Slope-Bowman-
420 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect on Friday. See
www.weather.gov/bis for additional information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ017-018-031>033-041-044-041030-
McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Hettinger-Adams-
520 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 /420 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ001-009-010-019-020-035-036-042-046>048-050-051-057>062-041030-
Divide-Williams-Mountrail-Mercer-Oliver-Burleigh-Kidder-Grant-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-Western McLean-
Eastern McLean-Western Morton-Eastern Morton-Western Sioux-
Eastern Sioux-
520 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 /420 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this morning.
Widespread severe weather is not expected, but some storms could
be strong with hail up to the size of nickels.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ002>005-012-013-022-023-025-037-055-056-041030-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Stutsman-Northwest Ward-
Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-
520 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
this morning and afternoon. Expected hazards include hail as large
as ping pong balls and damaging winds up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

Hollan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
402 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

NDZ009-017-030930-
Williams ND-McKenzie ND-
402 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 /302 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026/

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WILLIAMS AND NORTH
CENTRAL MCKENZIE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT /330 AM MDT/...

At 402 AM CDT /302 AM MDT/, strong thunderstorms were located over
Williston, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Williston, Ray, Grenora, Wildrose, Epping, Alamo, Bonetrail,
  Wheelock, Spring Brook, Lewis And Clark State Park, White Tail Bay
  Recreation Area, Appam, Corinth, Tobacco Garden Bay Recreation
  Area, Blacktail Lake, Zahl, and Hanks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4806 10377 4808 10382 4863 10394 4863 10309
      4814 10288 4782 10328
TIME...MOT...LOC 0900Z 220DEG 27KT 4819 10358

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hollan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
405 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

NDZ010-056-057-030930-
Mountrail ND-Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area ND-Western
McLean ND-
405 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL
MCLEAN...SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTRAIL AND SOUTH CENTRAL WARD COUNTIES UNTIL
430 AM CDT...

At 405 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located near Makoti, or 27
miles northwest of Garrison, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Parshall, Plaza, Makoti, Ryder, Rice Lake, Douglas, and Fort
  Berthold.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4785 10222 4817 10212 4810 10131 4771 10147
      4780 10224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0904Z 202DEG 20KT 4792 10185

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hollan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
433 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

NDZ009-017-031000-
Williams ND-McKenzie ND-
433 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 /333 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026/

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN WILLIAMS AND
NORTHEASTERN MCKENZIE COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/...

At 433 AM CDT /333 AM MDT/, a line of strong thunderstorms was
located from 13 miles north of Epping to 13 miles northeast of
Watford City, or from 25 miles northeast of Williston to 13 miles
northeast of Watford City, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Tioga, Ray, Epping, Wheelock, Keene, White Tail Bay Recreation
  Area, Tobacco Garden Bay Recreation Area, Lewis And Clark State
  Park, Charlson, and Mcgregor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4804 10333 4820 10338 4850 10350 4863 10289
      4837 10289 4837 10283 4793 10283 4790 10328
TIME...MOT...LOC 0932Z 246DEG 19KT 4846 10332 4824 10317 4796 10314

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hollan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
436 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

NDZ056-031015-
Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area ND-
436 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN WARD COUNTY
UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

At 436 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located near Rice Lake, or
21 miles north of Garrison, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Makoti, Ryder, Rice Lake, and Douglas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4785 10187 4809 10187 4809 10121 4785 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 0935Z 239DEG 15KT 4795 10157

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hollan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
530 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

NDZ010-017-031100-
Mountrail ND-McKenzie ND-
530 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026 /430 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026/

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTRAIL AND
NORTHEASTERN MCKENZIE COUNTIES UNTIL 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/...

At 530 AM CDT /430 AM MDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located over
Four Bears Village, or 24 miles southwest of Stanley, moving east at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  New Town, 4 Bears Lodge, Four Bears Village, Belden, Van Hook Park,
  Crow Flies High State Recreation Area, White Earth Bay Recreation
  Area, and Fort Berthold.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4812 10280 4823 10283 4824 10283 4828 10235
      4785 10232 4786 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 1030Z 270DEG 23KT 4800 10260

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hollan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
650 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

NDZ012-056-031230-
Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area ND-McHenry ND-
650 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MCHENRY AND
WARD COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 650 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located from 8 miles north
of Makoti to 7 miles southeast of Granville, or from 26 miles
southwest of Minot to 24 miles east of Minot, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Minot, Velva, Burlington, Surrey, Towner, Sawyer, Granville, Des
  Lacs, Makoti, Ryder, Denbigh, Karlsruhe, Rice Lake, Norwich,
  Berwick, Voltaire, Logan, Bergen, Simcoe, and George Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4827 10192 4838 10106 4845 10028 4837 10028
      4837 10024 4805 10024 4788 10187 4802 10187
      4802 10192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1149Z 251DEG 26KT 4807 10178 4820 10134 4818 10077

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hollan