Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
616 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms over much of
  western and central North Dakota late this afternoon and
  tonight.

- There is a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) of severe
  thunderstorms over portions of western North Dakota Monday
  night.

- Another round of scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms is
  possible on Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures through Tuesday, then trending
  cooler for the remainder of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

** Mesoscale Discussion **

The severe storm risk is rapidly increasing in western North
Dakota, including initially the potential for large to very
large hail of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter. The potential for
damaging to destructive straight-line winds will also increase
the next few hours, with the previously-advertised corridor of
peak gusts of 85 to 100 mph still in the forecast.

As of 23z, supercells have formed along the surface front and
wind shift in western ND, notably in southern McKenzie and
Golden Valley Counties. These supercells have formed in an
environment characterized by strong bouyancy with MLCAPE on the
order of 3000 J/kg and effective-layer shear around 50 kt, which
is favorable for large to very large hail. Hodographs do display
a relatively straight geometry in this area, suggesting cells
may continue to undergo splitting and merging in this area.
Right-moving supercells are slightly favored over left-moving
supercells in this region given modest low-level curvature in
the hodographs. Eventually, if sufficient mergers and clustering
occurs, the dominant hazard with these initial supercells may
also become more damaging-wind-related. Recent WoFS cycles do
suggest these supercells may indeed merge and begin propagating
downstream toward the west end of Lake Sakakawea in the next few
hours, favoring that increase in damaging winds.

Low-level convergence along the wind shift further north in
western Mountrail and Burke Counties and vicinity appears to be
weaker, and visible satellite imagery suggests fewer attempts at
deep convective initiation in that part of northwestern North
Dakota at this time. Nonetheless, a low to medium probability of
a supercell or two forming in northwest ND continues.

Upstream supercells in southeastern Montana are in a favorable
CAPE-shear setting for continued maintenance, and their motion
is expected to continue taking them near the frontal zone and
into southwestern North Dakota in the next few hours. We expect
that once significant upscale growth begins, and a potential bow
echo takes shape from these storms, that they will begin to take
a more north-northeast forward motion (following forecast Corfidi
vectors) rather than the east-northeast motion that the right-
moving supercell motion vectors have favored thus far. As a
result, even the supercell in far southeast Carter County, MT,
and northwestern Butte County, SD, may become part of a larger
bowing complex that moves into southwest and south central ND.
WoFS runs continue to signal potential for high-end wind gusts
with these expected bowing structures in the coming hours.

CJS

UPDATE
Issued at 409 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Quick update for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch number
285 for western and much of central North Dakota. The Storm
Prediction Center has opted for a PDS (Particularly Dangerous
Situation) Severe watch due to the likelihood of damaging winds
this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Currently, southwest flow aloft ahead of a dynamic upper level
trough advancing east into the Rockies. Quasi-stationary/slowly
east moving surface trough/frontal boundary stretches from far
western South Dakota north-northeast across far western North
Dakota this afternoon. Very warm and humid weather across
western and central ND, with current afternoon temperatures
well into the 80s to lower 90s, along with sfc dewpoint
temperatures in the 60s to near 70. This results in mixed layer
CAPE of 2-3K J/KG west into north central. Effective/bulk shear
remains mainly along to west of the sfc boundary, 35-50kts far
west. Elevated echos over central ND at the moment, and not
expecting anything from this with a stout low level capping
inversion here.

Some storms may initiate between 20-22Z across the western
Dakotas looking at the latest CAMs/WoFS runs, with some models
closer to 23Z. Have not seen anything out of the Black Hills
yet, but there have been a few towers and orphan anvils there
the past hour. Nothing within the CU field over western ND, but
latest mesoanalysis indicates CIN eroding. Anything developing
across western ND would be discrete and would pose a threat for
very large hail considering the lapse rates we've sampled via
the BIS 18Z sounding. Will be monitoring this area closely. A
bigger threat for severe winds will materialize as convection
developing over the higher terrain of the Big Horns and
southeastern Montana push northeast and congeals into a linear
line/bow echo. Last several WoFS runs are indicating a damaging
wind swath from southwest North Dakota northeast into north
central areas of North Dakota, including Beach and Bowman,
northeast through Dickinson, Killdeer, Hazen, Garrison, and
possibly Minot. Winds of 85-100 mph will be possible in this
swath. Latest SPC Day 1 did upgrade this area to a Moderate
Risk (level 4 of 5) with elevated likelihood of occurrence,
with much of the remaining area outside of the James Valley
still in the Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) area.

Storms will end west to east tonight behind the FROPA, with
winds becoming more west/northwest and clouds diminishing.
Cooler and less humid for Monday behind the front.

WAA and southwest flow aloft increases Monday night into
Tuesday, as a subtle mid level S/WV ridge moves across the area
ahead of another mid level trough. Marginal (threat level 1 of
5) Risk for severe storms over western North Dakota Monday
night as lead energy ejects out of the trough and low level
moisture increases again, followed by another Slight/Enhanced
Risk (2/3 of 5) for much of the area on Tuesday as the
aforementioned trough pushes into the Northern Plains and drives
another frontal boundary east across the region.

Afterwards, we will remain in an active pattern with the general
flow dominated by upper level lows or troughing. This will
maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, along with
temperatures trending cooler and closer to early/mid June highs
and lows (highs mid 60s to mid 70s...lows 45-55).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Strong south to southeast winds over central ND today with
mainly scattered mid and high clouds. Late this afternoon and
tonight strong to severe storms will move west to east across
the forecast area, associated with a cold front moving through.
Strong gusty and erratic winds can be expected with any
thunderstorms, along with MVFR ceilings and visibilities in
heavy downpours. The front will shift wind west-northwesterly.
Areas of MVFR ceilings are possible behind the convection late
tonight into early Monday morning, before all sites trend VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ004-005-012-013-020-022-023-025-035>037-042-046>048-050-051-
058>062.

&&

UPDATE...CJS
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
230 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-
040>044-046>048-050-051-055>062-081930-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-Northwest Ward-Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-
Western McLean-Eastern McLean-Western Morton-Eastern Morton-
Western Sioux-Eastern Sioux-
230 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 /130 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are possible across
western and central North Dakota late this afternoon and this
evening. The main hazards will be 2 inch hail and damaging wind
gusts up to 70 mph. There is a localized threat for peak gusts in
excess of 85 mph across portions of southwest and west central
North Dakota. A tornado or two is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Monday night into
early Tuesday. The main hazard is expected to be large hail.

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are possible across
western and central North Dakota again on Tuesday. The main
hazards will be 2 inch hail and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.
A tornado is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will likely be needed over the next few days.

NH