Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Bismarck, ND

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Williams County, ND

697 
WWUS83 KBIS 221029
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
529 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST WESTERN AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL 
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...

.Critical fire weather conditions will occur late this morning
and into this evening across most of western and much of south
central North Dakota. Minimum relative humidity will fall to 
around 10 to 15 percent in southwest North Dakota, and around 15 
to 20 percent across the northwest and far south central. South to
southeast winds will be strongest in the southern James River 
Valley with sustained speeds around 25 to 30 mph, and 20 to 25 mph
elsewhere. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible in the northwest and 
far south central. Any fires that ignite could spread rapidly and 
become difficult to control.

NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>048-050-051-230200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0002.260422T1600Z-260423T0200Z/
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
529 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 /429 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/
THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL 
NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Most of western and much of south central North
  Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds and low relative humidity can contribute to extreme 
fire behavior.

&&

$$

Telken

113 
WWUS83 KBIS 221509
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1009 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST WESTERN AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...

.Critical fire weather conditions will occur late this morning
and into this evening across most of western and much of south
central North Dakota. Minimum relative humidity will fall to
around 10 to 15 percent in southwest North Dakota, and around
15 to 20 percent across the northwest and far south central.
South to southeast winds will be strongest in the southern James
River Valley with sustained speeds around 25 to 30 mph, and 20 to
25 mph elsewhere. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible in the
northwest and far south central. Any fires that ignite could
spread rapidly and become difficult to control.

NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>048-050-051-230200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0002.260422T1600Z-260423T0200Z/
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1009 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 /909 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF
WESTERN AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Southeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Most of western and much of south central 
  North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds and low relative humidity can contribute to extreme
fire behavior.

&&

$$

974 
WWUS83 KBIS 221741
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST WESTERN AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...

.Critical fire weather conditions will develop and continue into
this evening across most of western and much of south central 
North Dakota. Minimum relative humidity will fall to around 10 to 
15 percent in southwest North Dakota, and around 15 to 20 percent 
across the northwest and far south central. South to southeast 
winds will be strongest in the southern James River Valley with 
sustained speeds around 25 to 30 mph, and 20 to 25 mph elsewhere. 
Gusts up to 40 mph are possible in the northwest and far south 
central. Any fires that ignite could spread rapidly and become 
difficult to control.

NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>048-050-051-230200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260423T0200Z/
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1241 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 /1141 AM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF
WESTERN AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Southeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Most of western and much of south central 
  North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds and low relative humidity can contribute to extreme
fire behavior.

&&

$$

685 
WWUS83 KBIS 230030
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
730 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST WESTERN AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...

.Critical fire weather conditions continue this evening across 
most of western and much of south central North Dakota. Minimum 
relative humidity will fall to around 10 to 15 percent in 
southwest North Dakota, and around 15 to 20 percent across the 
northwest and far south central. South to southeast winds will be 
strongest in the southern James River Valley with sustained speeds
around 25 to 30 mph, and 20 to 25 mph elsewhere. Gusts up to 45 
mph are possible at all locations. Any fires that ignite could 
spread rapidly and become difficult to control.

NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>048-050-051-230200-
/O.CON.KBIS.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260423T0200Z/
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
730 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 /630 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF
WESTERN AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Southeast around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...Most of western and much of south central 
  North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds and low relative humidity can contribute to extreme
fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hollan

755 
WWUS83 KBIS 230202
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
902 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING EXTENDED FOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

.Critical fire weather conditions continue late this evening 
across southwest and west central North Dakota, where relative
humidity remains in the 10 to 20 percent range with gusty
southwest winds. Any fires that ignite could spread rapidly and 
become difficult to control.

NDZ001-009-019-020-034-042-045>048-050-051-230315-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260423T0200Z/
Divide-Williams-Mercer-Oliver-Morton-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
902 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 /802 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR NORTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

Relative humidity will continue to rise across northwest and south
central North Dakota late this evening, but scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue to produce strong, erratic
wind gusts.

$$

NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-230500-
/O.EXT.KBIS.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260423T0500Z/
McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-
Adams-
902 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 /802 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/
TONIGHT FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* WINDS...Southwest around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 10 percent.

* AFFECTED AREA...South west and west central North Dakota.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become 
  difficult to control or suppress.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds and low relative humidity can contribute to extreme
fire behavior.

&&

$$

Hollan

348 
WWUS83 KBIS 230449
RFWBIS

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-230600-
/O.EXP.KBIS.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260423T0500Z/
McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-
Adams-
1149 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 /1049 PM MDT Wed Apr 22 2026/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/
TONIGHT...

Humidity values have risen, therefore the Red Flag Warning will be
allowed to expire.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
958 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-record high temperatures in the 80s to near 90 for most
  areas on Wednesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible across most of
  western and far southern North Dakota on Wednesday.

- Active weather pattern Wednesday night through the end of the
  week, with medium to high precipitation chances and a strong
  cooling trend.

- Strong west to northwest winds are likely Thursday and
  Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The near-term forecast remains on track. We continue to evaluate
the thunderstorm potential for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Model soundings indicate very high clouds bases around 10,000
to 15,000 feet over this time frame, with underlying inverted-v
or onion bulb-shaped thermodynamic profiles. This suggests
erratic, gusty winds would be the primary hazard with any
thunderstorm that develops. Surface-based convection does not
appear to be plausible given a lower capping inversion and
unusually high LFC heights for surface-based parcels. But even
in the absence of lightning, high-based showers (reflecting as
no more than sprinkles at the surface) could also produce
erratic gusty winds. All this could add another wrinkle to the
fire weather concerns on Wednesday, and an isolated dry
thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out.

UPDATE
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

No major changes are needed for this update. Current conditions
and trends have been blended into the forecast. Gusty winds
should diminish this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Quiet weather day today, with quasi-zonal flow aloft downstream
of a deep closed low moving onshore over the western CONUS.
Broad high pressure was centered over northern Minnesota, with a
modest pressure gradient and boundary oriented northeast-
southwest across western North Dakota. Mostly sunny with breezy
southerly winds today, and afternoon highs in the lower 70s east
to lower 80s west.

Forecast concerns increase Wednesday and continue through the
end of the week. The aforementioned low approaches the region
and an upper ridge builds in just downstream of the trough base,
with low-level warm air advection boosting highs into the mid
70s north central to around 90 far west and south.

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for western and parts of
southern North Dakota for Wednesday, due to the combination of
low relative humidity and strong winds. Southwest North Dakota
compared to the northwest and James River Valley areas have
slightly different environments. South to southeast winds will
be sustained around mph across southwest North Dakota, with
minimum relative humidity in the lower teens. Further north and
east, winds will be stronger but dew points slightly higher,
still leading to possible critical fire weather conditions.
Joint probabilities of relative humidity less than 20 percent
and winds of at least 15 mph favor western North Dakota, along
the SD state line, and into the southern James River Valley,
which is where we issued the watch for. Some uncertainty on
conditions in the far south central and questions on what dew
points end up looking like in the James River Valley. We are
also favoring the fact that it will be the first widespread hot
and windy day of the season, with forecast highs from mid 70s
far north central to the upper 80s southwest and far south
central. Right now the main climate sites to potentially break
record highs are Dickinson (90 degrees in 1989) and Bismarck
(89 degrees in 1990).

We continue to monitor thunderstorm potential Wednesday evening
as the trough base and attendant low lift over the Northern
Rockies and approach the region. This is also where the dew
point question comes into play, with forecast instability
varying amongst deterministic guidance. General thought is for
marginal instability and bulk shear available, with potential
for a few stronger storms, but likelihood of an isolated severe
storm is low. 12Z HREF does paint a few max UH tracks across the
forecast area, but will have to see how much moisture return we
can get in the next 24 hours. Dew points across southeast North
Dakota are in the upper 20s to lower 30s this afternoon, and
looking upstream across the I-29 corridor and southern
Minnesota, we have to look pretty far south to start seeing dew
points in the 50s, which would severely limit any sort of
convective potential, but would increase the fire weather
potential.

As the upper low moves into the state on Thursday,
precipitation chances increase early in the morning and through
the day, although ensemble guidance is advertising a noticeable
shift to the northwest, moving the center of the low out of the
forecast area compared to what was being shown yesterday. With
this shift, we have seen a significant decrease in forecast
precipitation amounts, with the likelihood of exceeding a half
inch of QPF only around 20 percent in the northwest corner of
the state. Probabilities for more than an inch of snow are
similar. The placement of the system would also favor much of
central North Dakota to be dry slotted through the main push of
moisture. The benefit of the shifting of the upper low is that
it's not quite as slam dunk of a scenario for very strong winds,
although still high confidence in needing an advisory on
Thursday for the majority, if not all of the forecast area.

The continued story is then cooler air filters in, although
with the low skewed further to the north we end up in more of a
zonal flow aloft / diffuse surface pattern, with forecast highs
a few degrees warmer than previous updates, which leads to more
of a lower 40s to lower 50s forecast through the weekend. Winds
will stay breezy through Saturday before diminishing more as
flow finally begins to weaken. We still have low chances for
precipitation Friday and Saturday, but with the system displaced
not as confident in as much wrap-around precipitation. Still
favored as snow, although NBM p-types are showing more of a mix
across the south, especially during the day as our temperatures
nudged up.

The other noticeable change with this forecast package issuance
is increasing chances for precipitation on Sunday. As the upper
low lifts further to the north, a secondary wave with a southern
stream trough is projected to move through the Dakotas, and is
further north than previous forecast iterations. This will
continue chances for rain and snow through Sunday and into
Monday. Temperatures are favored to moderate further into next
week, although look to stay near to slightly below normal, and
certainly not as warm as they have been to start this week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 954 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period, with
increasing high clouds. Lighter and variable winds are expected
overnight, followed by strengthening southerly to southeasterly
winds on Wednesday at around 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts.
Low level wind shear could develop at KBIS late tonight into
early Wednesday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040>048-050-051.

&&

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Hollan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040>044-046>048-050-051-061-062-230515-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-Western Sioux-Eastern Sioux-
1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 /1102 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and
southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect on Wednesday. See
weather.gov/bis for details.

Strong west to northwest winds are expected Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

NDZ002>005-010-012-013-019-020-022-023-025-035>037-055>060-230515-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-
Oliver-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Northwest Ward-Central and Southern Ward/Minot Area-
Western McLean-Eastern McLean-Western Morton-Eastern Morton-
1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026 /1102 PM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong west to northwest winds are expected Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to provide reports to the NWS using standard
procedures, including through our social media accounts.

Telken