Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
204 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Upgraded the extreme heat watch to a warning for Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity becomes unhealthy and dangerous in some areas
for the rest of this week.

2) Several rounds of scattered thunderstorms could occur through
the week and into the weekend. Severe weather and locally heavy
rainfall and flooding will be possible within the favorable
warm and humid conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A extreme heat warning has been issued for the entire region
with significant changes to the model guidance and forecast
temperatures. Temperatures in the upper 90s and even a few 100
degree reading will be possible in the urban valleys across the
region. The only caveat will be the potential for convection
over the coming days that could ease the heat. Today, we are
seeing this happen with remnants of an MCS this morning
providing clouds over central NY and limiting heating, and
another complex dropping out of southern Ontario this afternoon
that will further limit heating.

Weds- Thurs are looking like the hottest days of the week, with
enough of the sensitive demographic areas (cities and deep
valleys) still within the crosshairs of extreme heat criteria in
the 105 to 110 degree range. Friday will be a little cooler, but
likely the urban area could still see 105 degree heat indices.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Ring of fire weather pattern over the coming days as we will be
close to the periphery of the upper ridge. Several embedded
perturbations associated with prior upstream convection will be
the kickers as they round the upper ridge. Our fate on
thunderstorms will depending on how strong and amplified the
ridge becomes this week.

For today, a severe thunderstorm watch is looking likely across
portions of central NY as a strong MCS is dropping out of
Ontario, Canada early this afternoon. Strong damaging winds will
be the main threat with this MCS, but can't rule out an isolated
tornado and hail as well. Also, although portions of the region
are in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, it
is possible that this area gets expanded upon and could turn
into a slight risk, as the upper ridge may level out some
tomorrow. Surface based CAPE values are well outside the norm
for the Northeast over the next couple days and shear is
sufficient to develop and maintain severe weather. Excessive
rainfall is also possible with diffluent thickness fields over
our area angling back toward the moisture axis surging in from
the Ohio Valley. Upstream MCS turning through the Great Lakes
over the ridge like we are seeing this afternoon could be the
story over the coming days, so multiple rounds of thunderstorms
will be possible. Due to the extreme instability for this
region, even lasting into the nighttime hours, the potential for
a long lasting MCS or Derecho exists for somewhere in the
Northeast U.S. in the coming days, but at this time, it is not
possible to pin down timing or location, but this will be
something to monitor.

Forecasters will be monitoring upstream thunderstorm complexes
over the coming days and confidence will increase for severe
weather when we see a long lived MCS pushing across southern
Ontario, Canada, such as the case today.

Some relief appears on the horizon after Thursday as the flow aloft
turns more westerly and then pivots into more of a flat trough for
the weekend which should bring increased cloud cover, some cooling
and more unsettled showery conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cluster of thunderstorms moving through northern NY is
expected to reach RME and skirt SYR for about 30 minutes or so
at each terminal. It is expected to bring a heavy, but brief,
bout of rain and strong gusty winds. Winds upstream at KART have
gusted 45 to nearly 50 mph and the strongest part of the storm
looks to pass over northern Oneida County and very close to RME.

Once this cluster goes through, there can be additional showers
or thunderstorms that pop up into this evening, especially
along any outflow boundary and TEMPO groups for thunderstorms
have been added to ITH and BGM to go along with the severe
thunderstorm watch.

Later tonight is expected to be mainly VFR although ceilings do
lower. MVFR or lower restrictions can't be ruled out for a time
prior to daybreak, especially around RME, ITH and ELM. Winds
become westerly toward the end of the TAF period tomorrow with
the chance of seeing additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing.

Outlook:

Wednesday afternoon through Sunday...Mostly VFR, but
intermittent restrictions will be possible with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current High Temperature Records:

6/30: BGM - 92 (1964), SYR - 94 (1971), AVP - 97 (1964)
7/1: BGM - 90 (2018), SYR - 94 (2018), AVP - 95 (2018)
7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)

Forecasts for 7/1 and 7/2 are at or near the daily records.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056.

&&

DISCUSSION...JAB/MPK
AVIATION...DK
CLIMATE...MDP

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