Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
651 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wind advisory was expanded to include Steuben County.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A anomalous storm system is breaking records for low pressure
in the month of June as it tracks into southern Ontario, Canada
this morning. This system will push a cold front through the
region today with showers, thunderstorms and a lot of wind.
Greatest chance for widespread showers and storms will be
during the morning through early afternoon.

3) High pressure pushes in on Friday with cooler and drier
conditions through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A highly anomalous low pressure system will cross the Great
Lakes and enter southern Ontario, Canada this morning. Current
model progs have the central pressure possibly reaching 988mb or
lower by late morning or early this afternoon, which is about 5
standard deviations below normal for this time of year. Latest
NAEFS and ENS show return intervals that are outside the climate
database with a number of parameters, including sea level pressure
and wind speed. Early this morning, showers and thunderstorms
associated with the warm front from this system will move into
the region. Additional showers associated with the cold front
will move through later in the morning and continue into the
early afternoon. Some of the stronger showers and storms this
morning will have the potential to produce damaging winds, as a
strong 60+ knot low level jet punches into the area around
sunrise. Even without the help of showers and storms, surface
winds will pick up later this morning as the cold front
approaches and the pressure gradient increases. There remains
some uncertainty on how much of the winds aloft will be able to
mix down, but confidence was high enough to include one more
county (Steuben) to the wind advisory, as winds shouldn't have a
problem gusting to 45+ mph across the higher terrain there.

SPC continues to keep most of the region in a Marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms, with the far eastern portion under a
slight risk, but that may change with an update later this
morning. This is a low CAPE and high shear environment that is
synoptically driven, so as mentioned already above, any stronger
convective showers or thunderstorms that can develop will have a
chance at producing winds in excess of 55 mph.

As drier air filters into the region later this afternoon,
showers should gradually come to an end, but expect gusty winds
to continue into this evening. High pressure will build in
tonight into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

No major changes in the forecast for the end of the week and
this weekend. Surface high pressure will build in behind the
cold front for Friday. This will bring drier and cooler
conditions through the weekend with low humidity. However, there
will remain some upper troughing over the region, so can't rule
out some diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity around the
peak heating hours of the afternoon. The next chance for
widespread rain will come towards the beginning of next week.
However, there remains to be a lot of run to run model
inconsistency with this systems track and timing at this time.
It is possible this system could miss most of our region
completely depending on how the pattern unfolds in the coming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LLWS has been kept at all terminals this morning as a low level
jet moves through. Heating today will mix those winds down so by
roughly 14Z to 15Z, the gusts will be mixing down.

Storms are already firing along the approaching cold front later
today so a thunder tempo was added to most sites. SYR, ITH and
RME have the best chance at seeing storms given that the
northern section of the line is unbroken currently. An IFR
tempo has been added for those sites. The farther south along
the front, the line is more broken so ELM and BGM were not taken
down to IFR as there is a chance the cells will miss the
terminal. AVP has the lowest chance of being impacted by a
thunderstorm so no TS was added but it may need to be amended
if storms develop farther south along the front.

Once the front is through, it will be very windy but likely VFR
at all terminals with a dry slot working its way in. Some MVFR
cigs are possible after sunset this evening at SYR, ITH, and RME
if some low stratus can form off of the Great Lakes but any
clouds will scatter out shortly after 6Z tonight.

Outlook:

Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR, though isolated to
scattered showers possible each afternoon with associated
intermittent restrictions. Westerly wind gusts could exceed 20
knots Friday- Saturday afternoons.

Late Sunday night through Monday...Wave of low pressure with
rain, restrictions, and possible embedded thunder.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-015>018-
     022-036-037.

&&

DISCUSSION...ES/MPK
AVIATION...AJG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1048 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-191500-
Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
1048 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A strong cold front will push through the area today with gusty
winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. Isolated severe storms
with damaging gusts will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS.

NYZ009-015>018-022-036-037-191500-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Madison-Southern Oneida-
1048 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 352 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS.

NYZ023>025-044>046-055>057-191500-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-
Delaware-
1048 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...TORNADO WATCH 352 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

A strong cold front will push through the area today with gusty
winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. Scattered severe
storms with damaging gusts will be possible, though isolated
tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS.