Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
729 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 10PM for
some of our central Southern Tier NY counties (as far east as
Chemung County), through our Finger Lakes counties, and
northeastward to Oneida County. It is possible additional
counties may be added at a later time if the severe weather
threat progresses east of there.

Also adjusted temperatures downward another few degrees for
this afternoon as extensive cloud cover continues to limit
heating.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front moving through the area will bring thunderstorms to
the area late this afternoon through the early evening. Some of
these thunderstorms may become strong to severe with damaging winds
or hail.

2) Dry weather is expected to return for Monday and Tuesday, before
an upper level trough will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms starting on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Extensive cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front continues
to keep the atmosphere relatively stable early this afternoon. As of
2PM, the trough and associated cold front is still over the Great
Lakes. There is some partial clearing across parts of Western NY and
Western PA and if this partial clearing is able to make it into
Central NY/Northeast PA, we could quickly see some destabilization,
although still not much compared to what we would usually see for
severe weather setups this time of the year. The main driver for the
potential line or broken line of severe thunderstorms to develop
this evening is strong shear (0-6km bulk shear values of 40-50kts
and localized pockets over 50kts). This could result in locally
damaging winds, especially in any bowing segments.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 10PM for
some of our central Southern Tier NY counties (as far east as
Chemung County), through our Finger Lakes Counties, and
northeastward to Oneida County. It is possible additional
counties may be added at a later time if the severe weather
threat progresses east of there.

Any lingering showers or thunderstorms quickly move east of the area
late this evening and especially after midnight. By the early
morning hours (after 3AM) the entire area should be rain-free,
leading to a dry day on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Behind the strong cold front passage, we will get a taste of fall-
like weather in mid-June on Monday. High temperatures will only be
in the lower 60s to lower 70s, with dew points falling to the 40s
for most of the area. Mostly sunny skies are expected, so it will be
a pleasant (but cool) mid-June day.
Slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Tuesday (highs in the
70s), but dew points will remain in the 40s, leading to low humidity
levels.

The weather begins to turn more active again starting on Wednesday
as multiple shortwaves pivoting around longwave trough over Canada
will move into the Northeast. This will set the stage for multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday right through the end
of the week. While exact timing remains uncertain this far out and
there will be dry breaks in between each shortwave, Thursday appears
to be the most active day at this time as a potent shortwave moves
through and more moisture and humidity advects back in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move through
the area this evening. We maintained some TEMPO groups for TSRA
for each terminal except RME and SYR, where the environment is
stable now. In any storms, brief IFR visbys will be possible
due to the heavy downpours.

After the storms move out, post-frontal lowering of ceilings is
expected, which will bring at least MVFR/Fuel Alternate ceiling
restrictions to all terminals. IFR restrictions will be
possible as well. A return to mainly VFR conditions is expected
for all terminals by late Monday morning/early afternoon.

Outlook:

Monday Afternoon through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms especially each afternoon as multiple disturbances
pass through; associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...KL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
808 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

NYZ057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-160015-
Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
808 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056-160015-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-
808 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.