Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
225 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With an earlier frontal passage, severe thunderstorm potential
will advance more quickly east this afternoon, ceasing by
evening. While weekend weather appears quiet tonight through
midday Sunday, confidence in increasing for another round of
thunderstorms later Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will finish moving through the area with some
stronger thunderstorms, but lingering threat ends by evening.

2) While pleasant conditions are expected through at least
midday Sunday, a round of showers and thunderstorms appears
likely to wrap up the weekend Sunday afternoon and evening,
followed by cooler weather early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A threat of scattered gusty thunderstorms will hold on just a
few more hours, shifting to the Catskills and Poconos in mid to
late afternoon before ending.

Timing of the expected cold frontal passage is advancing
quickly, which has somewhat limited heating and thus
instability. Convergence is a bit loose as well, so while we are
having scattered convective cells, they are not organizing into
a solid line. That said, some stronger gusts of 40-50 mph could
still occur, and perhaps even a severe cell or two during
maximum heating in mid-to-late afternoon towards the Catskills-
Poconos where highs will still manage upper 80s in the valleys.
Convective Available Potential Energy still has a decent chance
of reaching 1500-2000 J/Kg in the Poconos-Catskills so that is
where stronger cells could yield gustier and marginally severe
downbursts. By early evening, activity will shunt south and east
of the area, with a cooler air mass advecting in to achieve
lows of mid-upper 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A very dry air mass will result in abundant sunshine Saturday.
Highs will still reach a few degrees above climatology, yet the
air will feel a lot fresher with dewpoints mixing down to the
lower to mid 50s. Ridging will hold into Sunday morning to keep
things dry. However, a stout wave is projected to drop into the
upper Midwest Sunday morning, quickly pivoting around a Canadian
low to swing into our region late Sunday. Modest warming will
occur ahead of that wave, and an uptick in moisture. While not
exactly humid, the forcing with this wave appears favorable
because the air mass behind it will be much cooler for early
next week. Thus, confidence is increasing that we will have a
round a showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon-evening. With
models depicting 2-6km flow of 40-50 knots, there is some
potential for storms to be on the strong side. At the same time,
the modest moisture and speed of individual cells should limit
rainfall amounts, and thus not anticipating excessive rainfall
problems.

A markedly cooler air mass will start the week, with mid 60s-mid
70s for highs Monday and just a touch milder Tuesday. Weak waves
swinging around the broad cool upper trough could touch off
isolated showers by Tuesdsay afternoon, but overall the pattern
is mostly dry. Better rain chances wait until midweek onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A front will finish moving through the region by evening, but
not before scattered thunderstorms for at least KBGM-KAVP. Other
than that, VFR conditions are anticipated to dominate the TAF
period. Some uncertainty exists for whether KELM gets brief
valley fog around dawn, but enough mixing wind is figured to
hold that off as drier air moves into the region.

Outlook:

Saturday afternoon through midday Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday afternoon through early Monday...Showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions likely Sunday
afternoon-evening, followed by lingering low clouds/fog late
Sunday night-early Monday morning.

Midday Monday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR, but an
isolated shower is possible Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday...Chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...MDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
314 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056-PAZ038-131915-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Bradford-
314 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A round of gusty thunderstorms is possible Sunday afternoon
through evening. Monitor the forecast for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-131915-
Delaware-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
314 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 322 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A round of gusty thunderstorms is possible Sunday afternoon
through evening. Monitor the forecast for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
214 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

NYZ056-PAZ039-121845-
Broome NY-Susquehanna PA-
214 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL BROOME AND
NORTHEASTERN SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

At 214 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kirkwood, or near Binghamton, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kirkwood, Conklin, Hallstead, Windsor, Great Bend, and East Windsor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4206 7588 4215 7578 4213 7555 4192 7573
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 296DEG 15KT 4208 7578

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BTL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
301 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

NYZ056-057-062-PAZ040-121930-
Broome NY-Sullivan NY-Delaware NY-Northern Wayne PA-
301 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BROOME...
SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...WEST CENTRAL SULLIVAN AND NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 301 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hancock, or 8 miles southeast of Deposit, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Deposit, Hancock, Starrucca, Hiawatha, Shehawken, Starlight, Stalker,
Fishs Eddy, Harvard, and Equinunk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 7514 4194 7548 4200 7548 4210 7542
      4203 7495
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 294DEG 24KT 4197 7531

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BTL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
314 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

NYZ046-121945-
Otsego NY-
314 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OTSEGO COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cooperstown, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Middlefield, Hartwick, Cooperstown, Westville, Westford, Cherry
Valley, Bowerstown, Oaksville, Index, and Toddsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4259 7466 4265 7512 4276 7512 4285 7471
      4283 7466 4282 7465 4276 7467 4264 7463
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 267DEG 21KT 4271 7495

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BTL

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>