Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
232 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances of precipitation were expanded in spacial and temporal
coverage tomorrow with the wrap around precipitation. Early next
weeks high temperatures were coordinated with WPC to lower
them to not have widespread 90s with increase in potential cloud
cover.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold front moves through this afternoon and evening with a
threat of some stronger storms with gusty winds in the Finger
Lakes into the western Twin Tiers. Cool weather and wrap around
precipitation continues through tomorrow.

2) Warm up begins this weekend with a large scale pattern shift,
high temperatures climb into the 80s and perhaps a few areas to
reach the 90s early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES 1...

Rain and clouds have persisted along I-81 and east, though the
Finger Lakes into the western Southern Tier have seen clearing
with temperatures warming into the 60s. A line of thunderstorms
have developed along the cold front with a few strong gusts of
over 50 mph that have been observed on the NYSM. Confidence has
increased that the storms will be able to hold together into the
Finger Lakes down towards Bradford County in PA where
temperatures have risen into the 60s. Another indication that
the atmosphere has become more unstable is the stable wave
clouds in place this morning have given way to cumulus clouds.
Surface based CAPE has risen to 500 to 1000 J/kg with effective
bulk shear around 30 knots. Parameters are on the low end for
severe but isolated gusts of 50 to 60 mph are possible.

Once the front is through, a coastal low develops near Southern
New England tonight into tomorrow. As this low deepens, wrap
around moisture keeps clouds and rain showers around tomorrow
for most of the region. Terrain enhancement in the Catskills
could lead to a few areas to get near an inch of rain though
most of the area will just see intermittent light rain showers.
Chances of precipitation were expanded through the morning into
the early afternoon to cover this wrap around precip.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The long wave trough that has been persistent over the last
several weeks will break down this weekend with flow becoming
more zonal and even some ridging by the end of the weekend. 850
mb temperatures go from around freezing up to over 10C by
Saturday night and even approaching 20C Monday into Tuesday.
High temperatures in the 80s are likely next week and perhaps
some 90 degree readings in the Wyoming Valley. RH fields aloft
have trended a little more saturated so clouds are uncertain so
decided to back off from original forecast highs Monday and
Tuesday and dropped them 3 to 5 degrees from previous forecast.
Lower elevations are on the drier side so despite the much
warmer temperatures, dew points remain in the 50s to low 60s
helping to keep heat indices in check.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will be pushing through the region early this
evening. At this time, confidence for thunderstorms on station
is highest at ITH and ELM, but elsewhere, confidence is too low
to put into the forecast at this time and any storms will be
handled with amendments. Winds will be gusty at times this
afternoon out of the south and winds will be erratic in showers
and thunderstorms. Behind the front, wind will turn light and
variable overnight. Fog and low stratus may develop late
tonight, but forecast confidence in timing and intensity is low,
with ELM the most likely site to see IFR restrictions from fog.

Outlook:

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Isolated to
scattered showers with occasional restrictions possible.

Friday...Gradual improvement back to VFR by the afternoon.

Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR; small chance for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday night.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BJG/MPK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
304 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-141915-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
304 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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