Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
739 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted thunderstorm timing for today, pushing arrival times
back by a few hours. Also adjusted thunderstorm chances for
Friday the cold front has been forecast to speed up, limiting
storm chances north of the Southern Tier.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High heat and humidity continues today, lasting into Friday. The
weekend will be cooler but temperatures will remain above normal.

2) Multiple systems will traverse the area, kicking off scattered
thunderstorms across the region today and Friday. Some of these
storms could be severe, with damaging winds and hail as the main
threats. Saturday will remain dry but another cold front on Sunday
will bring a return of showers and storms in the afternoon and
evening.

3) A broad upper level trough will bring cooler, more normal
temperatures to start next week with a few periods of light rain
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Temperatures have climbed into the mid 80s for most, and are
expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s by mid afternoon. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat indices will reach the
90s for most. Valley locations across the Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes will see values climb above 95F, which prompted the
issuance of a Heat Advisory for these areas until 8pm tonight.

Temps and dewpoints will remain high tonight, falling into the mid
to upper 60s and mid 60s, respectively.

Friday will be warm once again, but a cold front is expected to move
into the area in the late morning hours, which will limit heating
potential across the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley. They may see a
brief period of upper 80s before the cold front moves through and
drops temps back into the low 80s. Areas along and south of the
Southern Tier could see temps reach the mid 80s to low 90s during
the afternoon hours ahead of the cold front. With dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s, heat indices will climb back into the 90s.
Confidence is not high enough to issue a Heat Advisory for
tomorrow afternoon for these areas as questions still remain
with the timing and speed of the front moving through and if
early rainfall limits heating potential.

Behind the front, drier and cooler air will move in with highs in
the low to mid 80s on Saturday with dewpoints in the 50s. A ridge on
Sunday will push temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s before
another cold front pushes through during the afternoon hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned heat and humidity will be the fuel that drives
thunderstorm development today and Friday.

A shortwave trough is currently moving across northern OH, kicking
off showers and storms over WPA and WNY. A cap currently remains
over our area, but is expected to erode by 3pm. As the
shortwave kicks eastward, it will provide the broad lift that,
combined with MLCAPE values between 1500-2000 j/kg, will kick
off scattered cellular thunderstorms moving into the area by the
mid afternoon hours. As the axis of the shortwave moves into
the area, the storms should transition into multi cell or linear
segments as they progress across the area late this afternoon
and evening. The main threat with the storms is expected to be
damaging winds and small hail. PWATs in the 1.75-2.0in range
indicate heavy downpours with isolated flash flooding possible,
especially across portions of the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley
that saw heavy rain yesterday. Storms should hit the I-81
corridor between 7 and 8pm and exit to the east by 10pm.

Friday will see another round of thunderstorms as a cold front
pushes into the area from the west. Guidance has sped up the arrival
of this cold front, now expected to push into our western areas by
the late morning hours. This will limit CAPE values north of
the Southern Tier. Vertical wind shear looks to be lacking ahead
of and along the front as well, with values only approaching
20kts or so. With the severe storm ingredients somewhat
misaligned, severe storms north of the Southern Tier currently
look to be isolated at this time. A few storms may be able to
become severe if they can tap into a localized area that has
higher CAPE values and moisture, allowing strong downbursts to
occur when the updrafts cannot hold the rain any longer. The
best chance for severe weather looks to be along and east of the
I-81 corridor as CAPE values should be the highest here and
mid-level winds are forecast to increase, allowing for better
storm organization and stronger winds to develop. Main severe
weather impacts expected are damaging winds and hail. Rain
should move east of the area by the evening, bringing a cooler,
dry night.

Dry weather remains through Saturday and into Sunday as a ridge
moves overhead. A trough approaches Sunday afternoon with an
associated cold front that should kick off scattered showers and
storms across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Some
of these storms could be severe.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Near normal temperatures will return to start next week as a
broad trough sits over the northern portion of the country.
This will bring a period of beautiful weather with highs in the
70s and dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s. Rain returns by
mid week as the trough axis swings through the eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and storms continue to move through the region. While
thunderstorms have moved through the Central NY terminals, the
line has yet to go through AVP but will do so over the next
couple of hours. Heavy rain and strong winds are to be expected
when the storms move through. Behind the line, light rain is
being observed at some of the Central NY terminals. Following
the rain, there is potential for lower ceilings and fog
overnight. Confidence is highest at ELM and RME, though fog will
be possible at all terminals given the added moisture from the
recent rainfall. The uncertainty is with the sky cover as if
skies do not clear out, then fog may not develop or will be
slower to develop. Lingering low ceilings will be possible after
12z though conditions should return to VFR prior to 18z. There
is another line of showers and storms expected tomorrow
afternoon, there is uncertainty with timing and coverage.

As mentioned, strong gusts should be expected at AVP when the
line moves through. Otherwise, winds will become calm this
evening and overnight. West to northwest winds will gradually
pick up throughout the morning. Peak gusts of 15 to 20 kts are
expected during the afternoon. Like today, winds could be strong
within showers and storms that pass over terminals.

Outlook:

Friday Night...Mainly VFR; fog and restrictions late overnight.

Saturday...Mainly VFR

Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions
possible.

Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR; early morning fog and
restrictions possible.

Tuesday...Low chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...BTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
729 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

NYZ024-025-036-044>046-055>057-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-072-122330-
Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-
Delaware-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Southern Wayne-
729 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ062-PAZ048-122330-
Sullivan-Pike-
729 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms today, which may produce
heavy rain, damaging winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The thunderstorm risk continues on Friday, as a cold front brings
another round of thunderstorms to the area. Some of these storms may
become severe.

Also, the heat and humidity continues on Friday, with peak heat
indices potentially reaching the mid 90s across valley locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS.

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-037-122330-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Southern Oneida-
729 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
741 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE Stevensville      41.77N 76.17W
06/11/2026                   Bradford           PA   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking roadway.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
751 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE Elk Lake           41.74N 75.93W
06/11/2026                   Susquehanna        PA   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking roadway.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
752 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Montrose                41.83N 75.88W
06/11/2026                   Susquehanna        PA   911 Call Center

            Multiple trees down on roadways in Montrose.

&&