Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
316 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for nearly all
counties until 9 PM this evening. Locally strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening can produce damaging
winds and hail, but an isolated weak tornado can't be ruled
out.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms will track across the area into
tonight. Some storms can be severe with damaging wind gusts,
large hail and possibly an isolated weak tornado. Heavy
downpours are also expected and localized flash flooding will be
possible.

2) Mainly dry weather is expected Friday through the weekend as
high pressure builds in.

3) A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
return Monday through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

After the relatively cloudy start to the day, there has been
enough clearing and instability to allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon well ahead of an
approaching cold front. Current mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE, 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, steep low-level lapse
rates, 0-6km bulk shear around 30 knots and some pockets of
0-3km SRH of 100 m2/s2 across the CWA. As a result, some locally
strong to severe storms have developed with damaging winds and
large hail the main concerns. Given a little bit of spin in the
low-levels, an isolated, weak tornado cannot be ruled with any
storm.

The severe storm threat is expected to shift from the Finger
Lakes Region into the Southern Tier, NE PA and the southern
Catskills as the rest of the afternoon/evening progresses. There
is the potential for localized heavy rain with PWATs around
1.40-1.50 inches and some potential training of showers and
storms as well. This does lead to an isolated flash flood risk,
with some storms lining up currently along the southern/eastern
Finger Lakes, and later on this evening in the Catskills and
portions of NE PA.

While the severe threat looks to wane by 9-10PM this evening,
showers an an additional isolated storm are expected to linger
into the overnight before diminishing. The actual cold front
itself is expected to move through tomorrow morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As the cold front continues to push east tomorrow and high
pressure starts to builds in at the surface, the upper level
trough will still be lagging overhead. This can lead to an
isolated shower or two, mainly through midday and across the
higher terrain of CNY before noticeably lower PWATs settle in
and dry conditions are expected the rest of the day and through
the upcoming weekend.

High temperatures tomorrow and Saturday will be mainly in the
mid and upper 70s. Sunday is expected to trend warmer as the
flow becomes more westerly with highs in the upper 70s and lower
80s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A frontal boundary approaching from the north on Monday may
stall out near the area through the first part of next week.
This can lead to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
through Wednesday. During this same timeframe, the northern
periphery of a building ridge is also expected to be near or
over the CWA allowing for a few waves of energy embedded in the
flow to move through enhancing the risk for scattered showers
and thunderstorms. High temperatures early next week look to be
mainly in the upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will likely
result in restrictions. 2 hour TEMPO groups for TSRA were
included during the timeframe where thunderstorms are most
likely for each terminal. Amendments may be needed to adjust
timing or to add in lower restrictions.

After the thunderstorm activity ends this evening, widespread
fog/mist is expected to develop, especially across areas that
received rainfall today. Restrictions will gradually dissipate
by the mid-morning on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday through Tuesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible with associated restrictions, especially each
afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...BJG

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
341 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E North Syracuse      43.13N 76.11W
08/27/2026                   Onondaga           NY   911 Call Center

            Large tree branch down on a house on
            Patricia Lane. Time estimated from radar.

&&

BJG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
409 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     Hail             1 ESE Groton            42.58N 76.35W
08/27/2026  M1.00 Inch       Tompkins           NY   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
412 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Lapeer              42.48N 76.11W
08/27/2026                   Cortland           NY   Trained Spotter

            Downed large tree limb on Parker Street near
            NY Route 392. Time estimated from radar.

&&

BJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
530 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

PAZ043-047-272200-
Wyoming PA-Luzerne PA-
530 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LUZERNE AND
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 530 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kasson Brook, or 16 miles south of Wyalusing, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harveys Lake, Noxen, Forkston, Evans Falls, Kasson Brook, Beaumont,
Ruggles, and Stull.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northeastern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4133 7630 4153 7622 4154 7598 4134 7600
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 267DEG 27KT 4143 7624

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BTL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
534 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

NYZ057-062-272200-
Sullivan NY-Delaware NY-
534 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL DELAWARE AND NORTH
CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 534 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Roscoe, or 15 miles north of Liberty, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Roscoe, Mongaup Pond Campground, Big Pond Campsite, Lewbeach, Waneta
Lake, Joscelyn, Little Pond Campground, Beaverkill Campground, and
Russell Brook Campsite.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4194 7490 4202 7495 4217 7474 4206 7468
      4202 7478 4195 7463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 238DEG 14KT 4202 7481

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BTL

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