Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
625 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing likelihood (60-80%) for storms this afternoon-
  evening. A few stronger storms possible mainly north of I-90,
  with isolated severe hail/winds (<15% chance).

- Isolated showers may impact Taylor and northern Clark counties
  Saturday afternoon (20% chance).

- Rain potential on Sunday increases heading south from I-90
  (30-60%), highest just south of our forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Scattered storms this afternoon, a few strong to possibly severe

Scattered showers and storms will be the story for this afternoon
and evening ahead of an approaching upper level shortwave advancing
into northern Minnesota. Dewpoints are in the low to mid 50s west of
the Mississippi River and in the mid to upper 40s east, but there
will be a slight uptick in moisture transport from the west this
afternoon ahead of the shortwave. Main question is how much
instability we can build this afternoon with incoming decaying
midday showers and associated clouds. However, there's been a large
portion of central/western Minnesota under few clouds that has seen
strong insolation through the morning, and RAP mesoanalysis suggests
this growing pool of instability will creep eastward through late
afternoon with rather steep low and mid level lapse rates. RAP
suggests potentially 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE north of I-90 (likely a
bit high due to over-mixing), though HREF mean SBCAPE is more
on the order of 750-1000 J/kg. Regardless, there will be ample
instability, especially north of I-90. Deep layer bulk shear
profiles will be robust with 0-6km values on the order of 30-60+
knots everywhere except maybe Taylor and northern Clark
counties. Hodographs are somewhat messy but generally straight,
suggesting potential for some splitting storms. Certainly
favorable dynamics for some supercell structures, but forecast
soundings only show deeper CAPE profiles for a brief window of
2-3 hours depending on location so storms will probably be more
low-topped. Hail is likely to be the main hazard and should
mostly be small, but any stronger/deeper/rotating updrafts could
potentially grow isolated severe hail to around quarter size or
slightly larger. DCAPE is marginal at best, so not expecting
much of a severe wind threat but can't rule it out entirely.
Activity will exit our area by late evening.

Isolated showers in north-central Wisconsin Saturday afternoon

In northwest flow on Saturday, steep 0-3km lapse rates will promote
marginal afternoon instability. CAMs have been coming into agreement
on the potential for diurnal showers popping up over northern
Wisconsin heading into the afternoon. So have added small PoPs (20%)
to Taylor into northern Clark counties to account for this, fizzling
out toward sunset.

Sunday rain chances will be highest just to our south

Continuing to monitor Sunday's system and accompanying rain
potential. A developing lee cyclone will rapidly advance from Kansas
into MO/IA/IL with favorable upper dynamics. Strong low level
moisture transport from the Gulf will feed into this system as it
passes by to our south. There is wide north-to-south spread among
ensemble guidance as to this surface low's track, but all
GEFS/GEPS/ENS members keep it south of Wisconsin along with the
heaviest rain. There remains low confidence in whether northeast
Iowa and southwest Wisconsin will be brushed by some of the wrap
around rainfall, if they will miss out entirely, or if the rain
advances even a bit further north. Recent ensemble mean trends all
exhibit slight north-to-south fluctuations that keep the forecast a
bit muddled. So will continue to run with NBM PoPs for now which
still paint a broad brushed 30-40% all the way north to I-90 with
60% in our far south.

Seasonal into next week

Not seeing any big pattern shifts or temperature swings further
out in the extended period. Tuesday looks to bring the next
substantial chance (70%) for rain as an upper wave drops through
in northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Showers and storms continue moving through the region this
evening as an area of low pressure shifts eastward across
northern Wisconsin. These showers/storms are expected to mainly
impact areas along and north of I-90, bringing MVFR/IFR
visibility and MVFR ceilings, before moving out of the area by
05z. Behind them, VFR conditions are expected, continuing
through the overnight and into Saturday morning for most,
although those north of I-94 have the potential to see MVFR
ceilings develop through mid Saturday morning (40-60% per the
19.18z REFS). Gusty southwest winds continue over the next few
hours, generally 20-30KT, before diminishing to less than 10KT
overnight and veering to the northwest Saturday morning.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kurz
AVIATION...Falkinham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
101 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-201200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
101 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few stronger storms will be possible this afternoon and evening
with isolated large hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Kurz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
654 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

WIZ032-200030-
Buffalo WI-
654 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BUFFALO COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 654 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles north of Wabasha, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mondovi, Modena, Maxville, The Big Swamp Area, Urne and Misha
  Mokwa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4460 9165 4443 9172 4451 9205 4451 9204
      4452 9204 4453 9205 4455 9204 4456 9204
      4457 9203 4459 9203 4459 9201 4460 9200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 285DEG 28KT 4459 9210

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

APF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
708 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     Hail             2 ENE Osseo             44.59N 91.17W
06/19/2026  M1.00 Inch       Trempealeau        WI   Trained Spotter

            Report of quarter sized hail east of Osseo.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
723 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

WIZ017-029-200115-
Clark WI-Taylor WI-
723 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CLARK AND
SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 723 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Owen, or 17 miles southwest of Medford, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Colby, Owen, Stetsonville, Curtiss, Atwood, Riplinger and Gad.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4483 9057 4499 9060 4512 9020 4503 9020
      4503 9031 4495 9032 4490 9031 4483 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 250DEG 17KT 4494 9054

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

APF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
727 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Osseo                   44.58N 91.23W
06/19/2026                   Trempealeau        WI   Law Enforcement

            Power poles and trees downed in Osseo.

&&

APF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
727 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

WIZ029-034-200100-
Jackson WI-Clark WI-
727 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CLARK AND NORTHEASTERN
JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 727 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hatfield, or 9 miles southwest of Neillsville, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Shortville around 740 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Ballard Road And Pray
Avenue, East Fork Campground, Wildcat Mound, Highway 95 And 73, Bruce
Mound, The Neillsville Municipal Airport, Lake Arbutus, Pray, Sidney,
and The Highground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4440 9093 4458 9092 4457 9043 4434 9048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 281DEG 39KT 4448 9074

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Naylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
749 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

WIZ032-033-200130-
Buffalo WI-Trempealeau WI-
749 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BUFFALO AND CENTRAL
TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 749 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Independence to near Alma.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Independence and Buffalo City around 755 PM CDT.
  Arcadia and Buffalo around 800 PM CDT.
  Fountain City around 810 PM CDT.
  Winona around 815 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Czechville, Merrick
State Park, Beach Corners, Dodge, Cream, Highway 88 And County O,
Tamarack, Bluff Siding, Hegg, and Highway 95 And County D.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4445 9151 4424 9115 4423 9115 4406 9163
      4410 9168 4410 9171 4413 9173 4416 9180
      4420 9187 4423 9189 4425 9189 4427 9190
      4429 9193 4431 9191 4433 9192 4436 9197
      4437 9200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 325DEG 26KT 4440 9155 4433 9188

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Naylor