Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
630 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat continues Tuesday with indices 95 - 105+
  degrees across the local area. Lower confidence for Wednesday
  depending on precipitation chances.

- Periodic storm chances Tuesday, Tuesday night, Wednesday, and
  Wednesday night. Strong to severe storms possible Wednesday
  albeit location and strength remain forecast
  discrepancy/unknown.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Persistent Pattern Wavering Confidence Into The Weekend:

The strong synoptic anticyclone took shape over the southeast
CONUS on Monday with maxima to record 500 mb heights in 30.00Z
ROABs seen at ILX, ILN, RNK, FFC, BMX, JAN, SGF, and LIX, while
centered over OHX. LREF confidence remains high (100%) for these
anomalous heights to remain centered over the southeast through
midweek gradually shifting east to the Mid-Atlantic Coast for
Independence Day before widespread inter/intra ensemble model
disagreement. Additional, earlier inter-ensemble disagreement
regarding the synoptic pattern across the central CONUS affects
local forecast confidence through midweek.

Extreme Heat Tuesday & Storm Chances:

High confidence (80%) for daytime high temperatures from the high
80s to mid 90s for Tuesday, similar as Monday, with low to mid 70
degree surface dewpoint temperatures. Lower confidence in rebounding
of increased surface dewpoint temperatures along our northwestern
periphery after overnight convection and again Tuesday night with
additional similar precipitation chances expected along western and
northern periphery. Additional, zonally oriented area of storms also
possible overnight into Wednesday morning depending on frontal
boundary location in relation to strength and location of area of
higher pressure.

Low-Medium (18-41%) Confidence Wednesday:

Most recent GEFS (29.18Z) run threw a wrench in model agreement
through midweek by limiting synoptic forcing for any
precipitation and storms unlike other ensembles or its previous
runs. The resultant shunt north of higher precipitation and
storm potential along and north of the forecast area is unlike
the EPS & GEPS which paint high (75-100%) probabilities for
measurable precipitation across much of the forecast area
Wednesday afternoon and night. Highest amounts and probabilities
seen in the EPS with 80-100% probabilities for 0.5" in 24 hours
ending at 12Z Thursday.

Strong to Severe Storms Possible (14%-34%) Wednesday:

Strong to severe storms remain possible on Wednesday albeit low
confidence given the aforementioned spread in potential
scenarios. Machine learning severe hazard models exhibit this
dependence on their parent models as GFS solution exhibits a
wider coverage and hazard threat while ECMWF associated models
paint the southeastern half of the forecast area with 30-45%
probabilities. While primary threat would be damaging winds, tornado
risk in latter AI models depend on ability of clearing skies
given ongoing precipitation probabilities. Large hail would be
the lower, secondary risk given the very warm atmosphere
raising a melting hail signal.

Temperatures Through Midweek:

Therefore, the GEFS solution is a few degrees higher for
temperatures than other LREF members with daytime highs persisting
in the low 90s for Wednesday, potentially requiring headline
issuances whereas other runs and models abate apparent
temperatures into Heat Advisory or lack thereof, depending on
cloud cover and storm coverage dropping dry bulb temperatures to
wet bulb temperatures. Therefore, have abstained from extending
current headlines or raising additional headlines through
midweek given the potential /slight/ reprieve in most extreme,
dangerous heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Showers and storms will move northeast through northeast Iowa,
southeast Minnesota. and west-central and north-central
Wisconsin through 30.15z. A few of these storms may become
severe. The main threat is damaging winds. These showers and
storms will produce MVFR ceilings through 30.13z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ029-
     032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ017.
MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.
IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
300 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-011100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Clark-
Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-
Crawford-Richland-Grant-
300 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota...central Wisconsin...
southwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds across parts of
southeast Minnesota and west-central and north-central Wisconsin
this morning.

An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 7 PM Wednesday.
Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values of 100 to 110
are expected.

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of
the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Do not leave
young children and pets in unattended vehicles. Car interiors will
reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Early on Wednesday afternoon, scattered severe thunderstorms will
be capable of producing large to very large hail and perhaps
isolated tornadoes. As the afternoon progresses, these
thunderstorms are expected to develop into a thunderstorm complex
which will be capable of producing damaging winds. This wind
threat could last into the evening.

For the rest of this week, multiple rounds of storms could impact
the region, some of which could be severe. However, confidence in
the location and severity of these storms is low at this time.

Daytime heat index values will reach 95 to 105 degrees through at
least mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning in southeast
Minnesota and in west-central and north-central Wisconsin this
morning and again on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

WIZ017-011100-
Taylor-
300 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through tonight. The main
threats are damaging winds and large hail. The first round is
expected this morning.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM Wednesday. Heat
index values of 95 to 105 are expected.

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of
the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Do not leave
young children and pets in unattended vehicles. Car interiors will
reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Early on Wednesday afternoon, scattered severe thunderstorms will
be capable of producing large hail and perhaps isolated
tornadoes. As the afternoon progresses, these thunderstorms are
expected to develop into a thunderstorm complex which will be
capable of producing damaging winds.

For the rest of this week, multiple rounds of storms could impact
the region, some of which could be severe. However, confidence in
the location and severity of these storms is low at this time.

Daytime heat index values will reach above 100 degrees through at
least mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this morning and on Wednesday
afternoon.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Boyne

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
654 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

MNZ079-301215-
Wabasha MN-
654 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL WABASHA COUNTY THROUGH
715 AM CDT...

At 654 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wabasha, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wabasha around 700 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Dumfries, Zumbro
Bottoms Campground, Theilman, Maple Springs, Conception, County Roads
18 And 4, Kruger Campground, West Albany, and County Roads 33 And 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4443 9220 4442 9212 4441 9211 4440 9208
      4440 9206 4438 9203 4437 9198 4435 9195
      4420 9219 4429 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1154Z 227DEG 44KT 4434 9213

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Falkinham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
704 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

WIZ032-301230-
Buffalo WI-
704 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN BUFFALO COUNTY THROUGH
730 AM CDT...

At 704 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wabasha, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Mondovi around 725 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Nelson, Maxville, The
Big Swamp Area, Mondovi Airfield, Misha Mokwa, Urne, and County Roads
F And K K.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4451 9204 4456 9204 4459 9202 4460 9200
      4459 9153 4435 9195 4437 9198 4438 9203
      4440 9205 4441 9208 4443 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1204Z 226DEG 41KT 4441 9202

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Falkinham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
719 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

WIZ032-033-301245-
Buffalo WI-Trempealeau WI-
719 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL BUFFALO AND CENTRAL
TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES THROUGH 745 AM CDT...

At 718 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Arcadia, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Independence around 725 AM CDT.
  Whitehall around 730 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Highway 95 And County
D, North Creek, Chimney Rock, Wickham Valley, Walek Knob, Elk Creek,
Square Bluff, and Highway 95 And County C.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4414 9158 4427 9171 4451 9139 4430 9117
TIME...MOT...LOC 1218Z 232DEG 31KT 4427 9151

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Falkinham