River Flood Warning 27, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
620 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect through 700 PM CDT, for
  all hazards including large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter),
  damaging winds (up to 70 mph gusts), and a few tornadoes.
  Risk for locally heavy rain.

- Marginal to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday
  afternoon. All hazards including risk for large hail,
  damaging winds, and tornadoes from northeast Iowa through
  southwest Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Regional radar and surface observations early this afternoon
show a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), moving northeastward
across southwest Wisconsin near the Iowa border. Several severe
thunderstorm warnings are in effect with gusts up to 74 mph
being reported thus far with this MCS. Convection initiation
continues rapidly north of this MCS, with several discrete cells
developing near the I-90 corridor. High-resolution CAM guidance
and observational trends suggest thunderstorms will quickly
grow upscale into a forward- propagating line through mid-
afternoon into the early evening as storms track towards the
I-94 corridor. Initially, discrete cells near the I-90 and I-94
corridors early this afternoon will pose the risk for large hail
and strong winds, with the severe threat evolving into
primarily straight line winds.

Looking ahead into the evening, a surface cold front is
expected to shift southeast across the region from central
Minnesota setting the stage for another round of convective
development. High-solution models continue to offer varying
solutions on the intensity of storms along this frontal
boundary. Shear and instability profiles once again suggest
discrete cells developing along the front, before growing
upscale into line segments as storms move eastward towards I-94
through this evening.

Overall, low to medium confidence exists regarding the evolution
of storms, particularly this evening. Ensure you have multiple
ways to receive warnings today! This is especially paramount
given the multiple rounds of thunderstorms through this evening.

Looking ahead to Thursday, SPC has highlighted the area for a
marginal to enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms, focused from
late morning through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be
capable of all hazards including the risk for large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes from northeast Iowa through
southwest Wisconsin. High-resolution models suggest an MCS will
develop across Iowa by mid-morning, with storms growing upscale
across the CWA by late morning through the afternoon. The
greatest risk for severe weather will focus across northeast
Iowa through southwest Wisconsin.

Long-term: Friday through early next week:

Relatively quieter conditions close out the week as a trough
pivots into the eastern Great Lakes region, setting up zonal
flow aloft over much of the northern United States. There is
some potential for precipitation through the weekend, mainly on
Saturday as the deterministic guidance resolves a surface
boundary shifting southeastward through the Upper Mississippi
River Valley associated with a 700hPa shortwave trough sinking
southward from a vorticity maxima over Manitoba/Ontario.
Probabilities of rainfall during this period sit around 30-60%
in both NBM and LREF with the highest confidence in rainfall
potential located over northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin.

Behind this boundary, cooler temperatures look to arrive to
start the new week as another shortwave trough sinks
southeastward through the United States, setting up an area of
lower heights across the Upper Midwest. Plenty of variation
exists regarding timing and location of this upper level feature
which leads to a fairly large temperature spread in the
NWP/AIWP ensemble guidance, but the consistent trend amongst
these suites is towards cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Thunderstorms have developed along and north of the I-90
corridor this evening. Heavy rain and large hail have been
observed with these storms during the last few hours, with
visibility as low as 1SM. Thunderstorms will continue to develop
ahead of a cold front tracking eastward through Minnesota this
evening, with storm activity focusing across southeast Minnesota
towards the Wisconsin border through 11/0200Z. The atmosphere
will begin to stabilize from 11/0200-0300Z, with storms
weakening as they track into western Wisconsin. Overnight,
showers and thunderstorms will exit the area. Recent rains will
increase the potential for areas of patchy fog from
11/0800-1100Z, with a 20% chance for fog to reduce visibility
below 3SM for KLSE and KRST. Thunderstorms return across the
region by late morning into the afternoon.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...NWS
AVIATION...NWS