Special Weather Statement, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
229 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slow moving cold front will continue to kick off some showers and
embedded thunderstorms into early Thursday.

- Dry and seasonably warm weather to end the work week, with
  periodic shower and storm chances returning for the weekend
  into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Cold front making ever so slow progress east across our area today,
producing area of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms as it
does so. Heaviest rain remains off to our southwest in area of much
more robust deep layer moisture convergence and area of better mid
level support. Mid level troughing driving this east moving front
centered across central NOAM...bookended by southwest Conus and west
Atlantic centered ridge axes.

Cold front will continue to work off to the east, exiting stage
right Thursday morning. Otherwise, large scale flow regime described
above remains essentially steadfast, with mid level troughing
controlling our weather through the weekend. Some hints northern
Conus flow becomes a bit more zonal in flavor heading into next week
as central NOAM troughing attempts to relax.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain evolution through Thursday morning. Focus shifts to temperature
trends and addressing additional chances for wet weather for the
remainder of the period.

Details:

Still expecting at least a few rounds of showers with some embedded
thunderstorms to rotate northeast along and ahead of the front
tonight into Thursday morning. Focus for rain will slowly pivot
southeast, likely centering near or a bit south of the Saginaw Bay
area by later tonight and early Thursday. This will be the area most
under the gone for some significant rain potential as additional
waves, some convectively enhanced/produced, rotate up across that
region. Guidance derived soundings confirm this heavy rain
potential, with saturated conditions through the entirety of the
vertical, with some limited cape through this moisture rich
environment likely supporting periods of efficient rain processes.
Definitely not looking at any widespread heavy rains, but wouldn't
be at all surprised to see some local areas receive up to and over
an inch of rain by sunrise Thursday. Otherwise, expect a gradual
drying trend from northwest to southeast across our forecast
footprint area heading through the overnight. Threat for rain looks
to end during Thursday morning as front and mid/upper level support
pivot off to our southeast. High pressure looks to follow, bring dry
and seasonably mild weather to end the week.

Uncertainty remains significant for this weekend into early next
week, especially with regards to timing and placement of any
embedded lower amplitude waves traversing much broader longwave
troughing. Best course of action is to continue with at least chance
shower/storm wording Saturday through Monday. As expected,
temperatures are trending a bit cooler for this period, with highs
mostly in the 70s to lower 80s. Wouldn't be surprised to see these
temperatures trend down even a bit further, especially if some of
the more cloudy and showery scenarios come to fruition. Little doubt
exact details for this weekends/early next weeks weather will change
in the coming day as timing and location of waves become better
realized.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Have been dealing with mostly MVFR conditions throughout the
day...except for prevailing IFR at MBL (pocket of colder water
in the Lake Michigan nearshore may be aiding in some advection
fog development)...and mainly VFR at KCIU. Expectation is for
another round of rain to develop during the late afternoon/
evening given deep moisture in place and increasing forcing.
Anticipate a return to IFR conditions at the northern Lower
terminals between the rain and fog/stratus redevelopment
overnight. Conditions will improve Thursday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JPB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
428 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

MIZ034-035-041-052115-
Gladwin MI-Roscommon MI-Ogemaw MI-
428 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GLADWIN...
SOUTHWESTERN OGEMAW AND SOUTHEASTERN ROSCOMMON COUNTIES THROUGH 515
PM EDT...

At 424 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Skeels, or 11 miles south of Prudenville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
West Branch, Skeels, Nester Township, Bowmanville, and Twin Lakes
Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4416 8461 4416 8473 4437 8426 4417 8414
      4413 8427 4405 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 243DEG 30KT 4413 8462

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
508 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

MIZ035-036-052200-
Iosco MI-Ogemaw MI-
508 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN OGEMAW AND WESTERN
IOSCO COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 507 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
West Branch, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
West Branch, Long Lake, Whittemore, Hale, Skidway Lake, Selkirk,
Plainfield Township, Rifle River State Park, Prescott, and Sid Town.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4433 8345 4416 8401 4416 8420 4431 8429
      4451 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 242DEG 29KT 4421 8423

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
529 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

MIZ018-023-024-052215-
Montmorency MI-Presque Isle MI-Alpena MI-
529 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ALPENA...SOUTHEASTERN PRESQUE
ISLE AND NORTHEASTERN MONTMORENCY COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 528 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hillman, or 8 miles northeast of Atlanta, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alpena, Lachine, Long Rapids, Hillman, Posen, Fletcher Pond, Royston,
Thompsons Harbor State Park, Spratt, Cathro, and Devils Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4502 8338 4500 8338 4494 8403 4510 8415
      4539 8351 4502 8337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 247DEG 27KT 4506 8399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
551 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

MIZ036-042-052230-
Iosco MI-Arenac MI-
551 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL ARENAC AND IOSCO
COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 551 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
National City, or 8 miles west of Tawas City, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Oscoda, East Tawas, Tawas City, Au Sable, Whittemore, Turner, Tawas
Point State Park, Plainfield Township, Wurtsmith Airfield, National
City, and Wilber.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4432 8329 4429 8335 4422 8343 4421 8347
      4422 8349 4419 8350 4418 8356 4415 8357
      4410 8379 4436 8387 4452 8328 4441 8327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 247DEG 30KT 4429 8370

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH