Small Craft Advisory 52, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
401 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms continue into this
evening.

- Strong storm system with potential for locally heavy rain
Wednesday night into early Thursday.

- Below normal temperatures likely to persist through at least the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure continues
to spin near/just south of Hudson Bay this afternoon -- likely to
remain in a similar position for much of the week ahead. Longwave
troughing evident across the eastern half of NOAM with an embedded
shortwave digging into the western Great Lakes this afternoon. This
will aid in support relatively weak pressure falls along a slow-
moving cold front set to cross the area this afternoon/evening.

Low amplitude shortwave ridging briefly slides overhead during the
day Wednesday in advance of an impressive mid-June system expected
to cross the Great Lakes later Wednesday into Thursday. As has been
alluded to sufficiently by the previous several shifts, the strength
of this system is noteworthy for mid-June. Sub-700mb heights and
MSLP progged to be lower/deeper than any comparison from the 1979-
2009 Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) climatology for a
several week period centered on June 18th. Vast majority of ensemble
members continue to prog a ~990mb low, yielding fairly high
confidence, as has been the case for the last couple of days.

Beyond Thursday, broad troughing likely to persist across the Great
Lakes through at least the upcoming weekend with at least slightly
below normal temperatures expected to continue.

Forecast Details: Scattered showers and storms are underway across
parts of northern MI as of early this afternoon, most numerously
exiting east off into Lake Huron as of 20z. Lots of large hail
producers in the strongest storms so far this afternoon. Some strong
to severe threat continues through early evening, propelled by
continued 500+ J/kg MLCAPE across parts of northern lower MI. That
said, the areal coverage of any strong to severe storms should be
far less than  earlier this afternoon. Otherwise, locally heavy
downpours expected to continue under any more robust cells with
localized additional rain amounts in excess of 1.50" possible.

Relatively tranquil conditions expected to return for the second
half of tonight through much of the day on Wednesday. However, focus
quickly transitions to the late Wednesday afternoon/evening time
frame for additional, more widespread, rain to arrive from the west-
southwest. While higher end severe/heavy rain impacts will focus to
our south, at least low potential still exists locally for periods
of steady rain to add up to 1"+ over a 12+ hour period across
parts of the forecast area. PWs ranging from 1-1.5" help to support
that thought, but do have some concern that convection to our south
late Wednesday/Wednesday evening may "rob" some of our moisture and
prevent a truly steady shield of rain from materializing this far
north.

Winds turn out of the north-northwest Thursday morning through the
remainder of the day with a rather cool/fall-like day anticipated.
High temperatures may struggle to reach much above the low-mid 60s
for much of the forecast area under lots of clouds and occasional
continued showery conditions. A gradual drying trend anticipated
thereafter for late in the work week into the weekend with more
sunshine and daytime temperatures slowly moderating a handful of
degrees for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Clouds will continue to increase through the day as
shower/storm chances increase, though VFR is expected to prevail
through at least 02z. The potential for storms exists for all
northern Lower sites this afternoon into the evening, with the
possibility of brief lowered visibilities from heavier rain as
well as some gustier winds if a storm passes over a terminal...
With storms already currently popping up on radar. Lingering
low-level moisture will lead to an increase in low clouds
through the overnight hours, eventually turning conditions MVFR
to possibly even IFR ~10z with decreasing winds. Condtions look
to temporarily improve from west to east through Wednesday
morning back to VFR with increasing winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ345-
     346.

&&

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...NSC