Small Craft Advisory 39, NWS Gaylord, MI

029 
WHUS73 KAPX 150230
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1030 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-151030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.260515T1300Z-260516T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1030 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO
5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-151030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.260515T1600Z-260516T0900Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
1030 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO
5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

185 
WHUS73 KAPX 150707
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
307 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-151515-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.260515T1300Z-260516T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
307 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-151515-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.260515T1600Z-260516T0900Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
307 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

007 
WHUS73 KAPX 150723
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
323 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

LHZ345-349-151530-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.260516T0000Z-260516T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
323 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ322-151530-
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.260515T1600Z-260516T0900Z/
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
323 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the south expected.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-151530-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.260515T1300Z-260516T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
323 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 8 feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-151530-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.260515T1600Z-260516T0900Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
323 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

853 
WHUS73 KAPX 151405
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1005 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-160000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260516T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1005 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 8 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-160000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.260515T1600Z-260516T0900Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1005 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-349-160000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.260516T0000Z-260516T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1005 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

273 
WHUS73 KAPX 151837
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
237 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-160600-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260516T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
237 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 8 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-160600-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260516T0900Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
237 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 4 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-349-160600-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.260516T0000Z-260516T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
237 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

997 
WHUS73 KAPX 160159
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
959 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-160900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260516T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
959 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 9 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-160900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260516T0900Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
959 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 4 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-349-160900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260516T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
959 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 4 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

497 
WHUS73 KAPX 160616
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
216 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-160900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260516T0900Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
216 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 7 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-160900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260516T0900Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
216 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 5 feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI and St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. 
  Potagannissing Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345-349-160900-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-260516T0900Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
216 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kts from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 4 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island and Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
248 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances for precipitation Friday/elevated fire danger
  potential.

- Warming trend through the weekend and into next week/more
  elevated fire danger Saturday?

- More unsettled weather next week with thunderstorm potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale flow pattern features a
departing short wave trough heading toward the east coast...short
wave ridging extending from the southern Plains northeast across the
upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes...and a couple of Pacific-origin
short wave troughs farther upstream with the lead wave moving across
the northern Rockies. Short wave ridging moving into Wisconsin/
Michigan has plenty of dry air air with it. Low level thermal
troughing getting replaced by warm advection with a sharp thermal
ridge/steeper mid level lapse rates spanning the Plains ahead of the
approaching short wave trough.  Elongated surface high pressure from
James Bay south through the upper Lakes and down into the lower
Mississippi Valley.

Eastern short wave trough will close off and lift northeast along
the northeast coast and into Atlantic Canada Friday/Saturday.
Approaching northern Rockies short wave trough lifts northeast with
weaker height falls across the upper Lakes Friday...and another
sheared out vorticity center/jet max across the region Saturday. But
the larger scale pattern starts to buckle this weekend with
troughing digging into the Great Basin which will push heights
upward across the eastern CONUS Sunday. 582dam 500mb heights into
Lower Michigan Monday which is above the the percentile relative to
climatology for mid May.  This basic idea of western troughing/flat
eastern ridging should hold through Tuesday before height falls
advance eastward.

Surface high pressure over the region today gives way tonight
allowing for southerly return flow to develop Friday ahead of a
weakening cold front that is losing its eastward push as main
dynamics/height falls lift northeast into Ontario.  Secondary ripple
passing north of the Great Lakes Saturday will try and nudge another
east-west oriented boundary into northern Michigan Saturday
night/Sunday.  This boundary will have a say in Sunday sensible
weather (both temperature and precipitation)...but a stronger surge
of warmth looks to be in the offing for Monday which may also be
accompanied by more unsettled weather (thunderstorms) for the first
part of next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Small chances for precipitation Friday/elevated fire danger
potential:  Tail end of the short wave trough lifting northeast into
Ontario will swing across the forecast area Friday morning.  Narrow
band of moisture ahead of this feature may kick off some shower
mainly across eastern Upper and the Tip of the Mitt counties but at
this point looks pretty minimal from a QPF standpoint.  A
potentially larger concern is elevated fire danger with increasing
winds from the south/southwest with gusts 20-30+mph.  Dew points
will likely be coming up a bit so relative humidity will ultimately
depend on how warm we can get which may be tempered by early cloud
cover; going with highs in the 65-70 degree range which results in
minimum relative humidity values below 35 percent east of the I-75
corridor.

Warming trend through the weekend and into next week/more elevated
fire danger Saturday?  The fire danger potential for Saturday has a
couple of elements to it.  There is the chance there will be some
showers around Saturday morning...and with higher dew points moving
in will need to clear out and heat things up to get relative
humidity values down to a respectable level.  Assuming that occurs
highs should get to around 80 degrees inland from Lake Michigan...
which would push minimum relative humidity values down below 30
percent.  This combined with another day of gusty south/southwest
winds (though probably not quite as strong as Friday) will result in
another afternoon of increased fire danger.  Temperatures may be a
bit cooler Sunday especially across eastern Upper with secondary
cold front arriving Saturday night...but trends still support above
normal highs Sunday.  Monday could be the real warm day with the
front getting pushed back to the north.  Looking at widespread highs
in the 70s across eastern Upper and 80s in northern Lower.

More unsettled weather next week with thunderstorm potential:
Secondary cold front settles across northern Michigan and extends
into northern portions of Wisconsin/Minnesota Sunday.  Heating and
moisture pooling along this boundary will increase the threat for
convection developing across at least northwest Lower Sunday
afternoon...spreading north/northeast Sunday night.  More
thunderstorm chances Monday especially afternoon/evening as warmer
and more humid air mass spreads in.  Best focus will be across the
upper Midwest but will see if some kind of linear storm mode moves
into Lower Michigan Monday evening.  SPC Day 5 (Monday) 15% severe
probability extends into Lower Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through Friday morning. High pressure
over Michigan moves east tonight...winds will pick up from the
south/southwest Friday morning and gusting over 20kts.
Increasing Ac/As moves in from the west Friday morning...
possibly some showers around KCIU/KPLN.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 5 AM EDT Saturday for
     LSZ321.

&&

DISCUSSION...JPB
AVIATION...JPB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1038 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-151100-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1038 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There are chances for thunderstorms across the region at various
times beginning Saturday and lasting into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-151100-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1038 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There are chances for thunderstorms across the region at various
times beginning Saturday and lasting into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

JPB