Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
738 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.
  A few strong storms possible.

- Quiet Wednesday-Thursday

- Unsettled again Thursday night into this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Pattern / Forecast Synopsis:

Disheveled longwave troughing over northeastern North America to be
the primary influence of the region over the forecast period, with
occasional shortwave trough passages to move through the region,
most of which will be maturing / closed off, and may have some
hangtime across the Great Lakes owing to standard stagnant August
jet dynamics.

Currently, a mature upper low over Hudson Bay to continue an
eastward trek, with antecedent SW return flow drawing in warmer and
(to an extent) more moist air across the Great Lakes. Surface
dewpoints have already ballooned to the 60 to 66 range across the
region as of the noon hour, with evidence of prefrontal clearing
building into northern Michigan. Surface cold frontal boundary
roughly stretching from James Bay through Marquette and WSW through
Minnesota just north of the Twin Cities. Evidence of some mixing
trying to manifest just ahead of this cold frontal boundary... which
may be something to watch for across our neck of the woods.
Nonetheless, frontal boundary to pass through the region with just
enough instability to force a convective response across Wisconsin,
eventually leaking into northern lower late this afternoon into the
evening, with showers and storms gradually clearing through the
evening / night from WNW to ESE.

Surface high pressure to build on the backside of the front,
yielding an aggressive drying NW wind regime (in conjunction with
500mb height rises / shortwave ridging) through the day Wednesday
that will bring back sunnier skies and seasonable warmth during the
day and again Thursday... but with the dry nature of the airmass and
calming winds overnight, cooler nights to return Wednesday and
Thursday nights. Next wave digs from the NNW starting Friday, with
current trend pointing to this wave occluding / closing off overhead
through the course of the weekend, bringing back cooler and
unsettled conditions for at least the start of the weekend (and
perhaps a renewed severe threat Friday?). High pressure / 500mb
shortwave ridging to follow through the day Sunday and into Monday
before the next wave passes through at the end of the forecast
period.

Details:

Shower / Storm Potential This Afternoon / Tonight: Aforementioned
frontal boundary to traverse the region this evening into tonight,
which looks to suffice in the forcing department (albeit, to a
limited extent... as pointed out by previous forecaster, frontal
convergence leaves a bit to be desired). Latest CAMs seem bound and
determined to have an aggressive prefrontal mixing regime,
particularly across northeast lower with downsloping WSW winds. Will
have to see how aggressive this trends as it will be pivotal to the
generation of this evening's instability, and thus the evolution of
any convection. Nonetheless, the other thing CAMs are persistent
with is deeper moisture right along / ahead of the front pooling
across the region, and thus giving us instability in the order of
500 to 800 J/kg of MLCAPE. Several fascinating aspects to this setup
to unpack... first and foremost, most modeled soundings showcase a
pseudo-inverted-V profile that usually comes with gustier storms
that don't really produce much in the way of rainfall... but with
largely unidirectional flow, anticipate it is possible if (and it's
a BIG ole "if") we can maintain instability following any intial
convection, which could support increasingly heavier rainfall in any
additional storm formation. A majority of CAMs seem to find this
idea possible, but I admittedly have my doubts.

Aforementioned unidirectional flow will be a big player in any
potential convective evolution. Hodograph shape this evening will
largely be linear, and as such, while this does eventually favor an
outflow dominant multicellular / linear mode... should be noted that
upon convective initiation (when storms are most discrete), this does
favor splitting cells... with potential for an initial left mover
dominant regime before transitioning into a linear mode with time...
and select CAMs have this down to a tee across the NW lower
shoreline, perhaps scraping the very southern reaches of Mackinac
County... As such, there is potential for an intial hail dominant
severe threat across the aforementioned regions before transitioning
to a linear, more wind / outflow dominant mode this evening. Should
note... we probably only achieve the most marginal of severe
conditions at best if we can hold onto progged instability trends...
but in the event we trend more downward with instability, the threat
may become much more muted. Nonetheless, enough is there for SPC to
expand the inherited Day 1 Marginal Risk (1/5) across all of
northern lower, butting up right against eastern upper. Primary
highlighted hazard is damaging wind gusts (5%), though in this
morning's most recent outlook, a 5% hail risk has been introduced to
NW lower (GT Bay and south), cutting off to the east roughly at I-75
/ US 127... which matches well with a majority of evening /
overnight convective episodes... most robust west, a bit more
isolated / weaker east.

Final piece of the puzzle is hydro based concerns. Recent drier
weather has allowed our soil to revert back to its more normal
porous sandy character... but with an increasingly moist profile
during the frontal passage, coupled with some borderline echo
training potential (unidirectional flow!) within PWATs swelling
closer to 1.50, in the event repeated storms can manifest, suppose
there is potential for some localized heavy rainfall totals. In
particular focus by CAMs is the NW lower corridor, including the
Grand Traverse Bay / TVC area, which has a handful of CAMs laying
down a strip of quick 1.50-2.50"+ of rain. Pending on how quickly
this can occur (and to what extent), suppose there could be a quiet
flood concern, especially if this can manifest over the Traverse
City urban corridor... with more stratiform / isolated convective
modes driving lower rainfall totals the farther east one goes across
northern lower.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are tracking across the
region with some stronger storms possible. Mainly VFR conditions
look to persist with temporary reductions in categories into
this evening due to any storms that trek across a terminal.
Gusty winds, heavy rain, and perhaps some hail could accompany
any stronger storm. Later tonight into Wednesday morning looks
to bring the potential for some BR/FG as profiles moisten.
Should any BR/FG develop, thinking it would dissipate quickly
after sunrise.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     342-344>346.

&&

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...NSC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
628 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

MIZ098-182300-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands MI-
628 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHARLEVOIX COUNTY
THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 628 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Saint James On Beaver Island, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Saint James On Beaver Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4580 8570 4585 8546 4583 8542 4585 8538
      4579 8525 4574 8533 4573 8545 4560 8545
      4556 8549 4556 8567 4562 8569 4566 8567
      4566 8571 4568 8574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 275DEG 33KT 4571 8561

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dippman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
736 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

MIZ020-025-190015-
Leelanau MI-Benzie MI-
736 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LEELANAU AND
BENZIE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 736 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms
near Empire southward to Platte River Beach and Point Betsie, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Empire, Beulah, Benzonia, Honor, Lake Ann, Platte
Township, and Bendon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4470 8626 4474 8618 4476 8609 4485 8608
      4484 8581 4457 8582 4465 8627
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 274DEG 33KT 4475 8615

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Dippman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
746 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

MIZ087-088-096-190030-
Southeast Chippewa MI-Eastern Mackinac MI-Central Chippewa MI-
746 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CHIPPEWA AND
NORTHEASTERN MACKINAC COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

At 746 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Rudyard, or 19 miles north of Mackinac Island, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pickford, Stalwart, Kelden, Barbeau, Munuscong, and Raber.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4634 8422 4630 8422 4627 8420 4610 8401
      4609 8458 4614 8464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 251DEG 30KT 4613 8454

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dippman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
749 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

MIZ016-017-190030-
Cheboygan MI-Emmet MI-
749 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CHEBOYGAN AND
NORTHEASTERN EMMET COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

At 748 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pellston, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pellston, Indian River, Aloha, Brutus, Aloha State Park, Topinabee,
Pleasant View, Alverno, Levering, Mullet Lake, Koehler Township, and
Riggsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4552 8493 4568 8491 4560 8434 4535 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 283DEG 28KT 4557 8480

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dippman

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