Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Gaylord, MI

917 
WWUS53 KAPX 270616
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
216 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

MIC033-097-270645-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-260727T0645Z/
Chippewa MI-Mackinac MI-
216 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHIPPEWA AND NORTHEASTERN MACKINAC COUNTIES...

At 216 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pickford, or 22
miles south of Point Iroquois, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Pickford and Stalwart around 220 AM EDT.
  Cedarville and Hessel around 225 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4622 8437 4612 8415 4610 8416 4593 8435
      4616 8458 4624 8447
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 312DEG 34KT 4616 8446 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

JLD

706 
WWUS53 KAPX 270627
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
227 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

MIC033-097-270637-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-260727T0645Z/
Chippewa MI-Mackinac MI-
227 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHIPPEWA AND
NORTHEASTERN MACKINAC COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Gaylord.

&&

LAT...LON 4622 8437 4612 8415 4610 8416 4593 8435
      4616 8458 4624 8447
TIME...MOT...LOC 0625Z 310DEG 31KT 4610 8435 

$$

JLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1205 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Still monitoring threat for isolated to scattered severe
thunderstorms later tonight into Monday

- Turning less active and a bit cooler mid-week

- Seasonable temperatures with some additional rain chances to end
the period

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

00Z surface analysis shows Michigan in between two frontal
boundaries...one across Lake Superior attached to a 1005mb frontal
wave north of the Keweenaw.  A warm front stretches southeast from a
1002mb low along the North Dakota/Minnesota border...across
Wisconsin/Illinois and into the Ohio Valley.  Broad area of 80+ dew
points on the warm side of this latter boundary...as far east as
southwest Wisconsin and western Illinois.  Several small
thunderstorm clusters have been forming north of the former boundary
across northeast Minnesota/northwest Ontario and Lake Superior early
this evening...with a zone of low level temperature/theta-e
advection/moisture convergence and likely aided by small
disturbances within an elongated cyclonic shear axis of a 90+ jet
across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin/ Lower Michigan.  Mid/high clouds
spreading southeast across the forecast area this evening...no signs
of convection across the forecast area thus far though 00Z APX
sounding had an MLCAPE of nearly 1700J/kg with minimal inhibition.
But background subsidence likely helping keeping things in check for
the time being.

So for now just the waiting game...either for convection developing
upstream to arrive...(which is probably not going to be until late
and would most likely affect parts of northwest Lower)...or for some
closer in development.Again there is a good bit of instability
around that just needs a trigger though forcing expected to improve
through the night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Northern Michigan remains squarely centered between Intermountain
West/High Plains upper level ridge/heat dome and northeast NOAM
upper level troughing. Result is persistent northwest flow aloft,
with periodic embedded shortwave troughs/upper jet speed maxes
crossing the region. And, right on cue, next wave set to drop across
our area later tonight into Monday, perhaps helping drive some
convective development as attendant forcing interacts with a
marginally favorable thermodynamic environment.

Above pattern looks to remain remarkably persistent heading through
this week into next weekend, keeping our airmasses of Canadian
origin and locking all real heat well to our west.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Addressing convective evolution and potential for severe
thunderstorms later tonight and Monday. Temperature trends and
additional late week shower chances take secondary focus.

Details:

Just your typical northern Michigan challenging convective forecast
tonight and Monday. Confidence on how everything unfolds remains
remarkably low. Definitely some concerns on just how extensive and
strong any showers/storms will be tonight and Monday, with at least
some hints best upper jet forcing remains northeast and detached
from best thermodynamic environment across the western Great Lakes.
Definitely could see a scenario were deep convection developing well
to our northwest this afternoon rides surface based instability
gradient southeast across eastern Wisconsin into southern Lake
Michigan later this evening into the overnight...with perhaps some
additional less organized showers/storms firing off to our northeast
where upper jet forcing is maximized. Pattern recognition/conceptual
models definitely support this idea as well...suggesting any
shower/storm activity across our area tonight remains both less
organized and intense than earlier anticipated. Simple best course
of action is to continue to monitor radar trends heading through
this evening. Area remains in marginal to slight risk wording for
severe weather from SPC...although they themselves mention
considerable uncertainty in placement of best juxtaposition of
enhanced convective utilizing shear and deepest instability. If
those features can become better juxtaposed across our area then
definitely could see some gusty wind potential with any more
organized convective clusters tonight.

And (unfortunately so) what transpires tonight will likely have
plenty to say on how Monday unfolds. Uncertainty is way too high to
offer any real specificity. With that said, could definitely see a
scenario were a south diving convective complex to our west tonight
significantly delays or even prevents any real organized convective
development across our area Monday...with primary convective
development along congealed cold pool forcing/differential heating
boundaries to our west and southwest (this despite what appears to
be better overhead deep layer forcing from approaching shortwave and
favorable placement of upper jet forcing). Forcing should
theoretically be enough to drive at least some convection across our
area, although again exact organization will likely be significantly
tied to how things unfold tonight. Definitely something to monitor
as better deep forcing does support some severe potential...as
evident by SPC slight risk wording across all of our forecast area.

Forcing steadily departs Monday night, with large area of slow
moving surface high pressure expected to bring dry and near
seasonable temperatures Tuesday through Thursday (although could see
some rather chilly overnight lows). Will need to watch for
additional southeast diving energy to end the week on into the
weekend to drive additional shower/storm chances. Current trends
support typical end of July/early August high temperatures in the
70s and 80s to end the week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Chances for SHRA/TSRA increasing. An initial cluster of
storms over eastern Superior is likely to bring precip to CIU
overnight. CIU is also likely to have MVFR fog late in the
overnight. PLN also likely to have showers in the vicinity
overnight, eventually TVC/MBL. Elsewhere, better shower/storm
chances are Monday afternoon. Significant, though brief,
restrictions are expected with any showers/storms.

Relatively light westerly breezes.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

UPDATE...JPB
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
114 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

MIZ086-087-270600-
Western Chippewa MI-Central Chippewa MI-
114 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CHIPPEWA COUNTY
THROUGH 200 AM EDT...

At 113 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eckerman, or 13 miles south of Paradise, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rudyard, Strongs, Raco, Eckerman, and Platt Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4648 8487 4631 8446 4616 8466 4616 8479
      4642 8511 4651 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 311DEG 32KT 4645 8497

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JLD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
158 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

MIZ086>088-096-270645-
Western Chippewa MI-Southeast Chippewa MI-Eastern Mackinac MI-
Central Chippewa MI-
158 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CHIPPEWA AND
NORTHEASTERN MACKINAC COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM EDT...

At 158 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rudyard, or 15 miles south of Point Iroquois, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kinross, Pickford, Rudyard, Kelden, Hessel, and Kincheloe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4627 8473 4632 8464 4618 8420 4599 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 310DEG 23KT 4626 8463

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

JLD