Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Gaylord, MI

067 
WWUS53 KAPX 130713
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
313 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

MIC031-119-141-130745-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-260713T0745Z/
Presque Isle MI-Cheboygan MI-Montmorency MI-
313 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN PRESQUE ISLE...SOUTHEASTERN CHEBOYGAN AND
NORTHEASTERN MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...

At 312 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Onaway State
Park, or near Onaway, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe storm will be near...
  Onaway, Ocqueoc, Millersburg, Tower, and Allis Township around 320 
  AM EDT.
  Canada Creek Ranch and Tomahawk Creek Flooding around 330 AM EDT.
  Bisma Township around 340 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Clear
Lake State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4536 8437 4547 8416 4544 8413 4541 8409
      4522 8383 4506 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 324DEG 28KT 4542 8428 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

MG

677 
WWUS53 KAPX 130718
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
318 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

MIC031-119-141-130727-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-260713T0745Z/
Presque Isle MI-Cheboygan MI-Montmorency MI-
318 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PRESQUE ISLE...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEBOYGAN AND NORTHEASTERN MONTMORENCY COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, small hail, 
frequent lightning and heavy rain are still possible with this 
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4536 8437 4547 8416 4544 8413 4541 8409
      4522 8383 4506 8419
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 325DEG 35KT 4538 8424 

$$

MG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
241 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Near record breaking heat builds today and Tuesday.

-High pressure will continue with quiet and dry weather through Thursday.

-Rounds of showers return this weekend with chances of storms this Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

The 500 mb ridging pattern remains centered over the Northern Plains
this morning and is expanding eastward into the Great Lakes region.
Subsidence aloft will support continued surface high pressure and
dry weather as H8 temperatures in the low to mid-20s (Celsius)
advect into the northwoods from the southwest. As a result, surface
temperatures will climb into the upper 90s, with a few areas near
Saginaw Bay potentially reaching the low 100s.

The remainder of the week will see this ridging pattern continue to
influence the majority of the Central U.S. Temperatures will begin
to decrease after Tuesday due to an increasing Canadian airmass
influence. A closed low pressure system, currently over Northern
Hudson Bay, will progress southward over the Northeastern U.S. this
weekend, bringing a return to more active weather. Waves of energy
will pivot across the Great Lakes region, resulting in rounds of
showers through the remainder of the forecast period, with
increasing storm potential by this Sunday.

Forecast Details:

Today and Tuesday...A dry and hot southwestern airmass influencing
the northwoods today and Tuesday will be the primary focus of this
forecast cycle. Widespread afternoon highs are expected to reach the
low to mid-90s today. Light westerly winds on Tuesday will push
temperatures even higher, with a few locations near Saginaw Bay
potentially breaking 100 degrees due to localized downslope warming.

The one silver lining to this heat wave, compared to previous
events, is that dew points are expected to mix out into the 50s each
afternoon. This will keep heat index values closely aligned with the
actual ambient air temperatures.

Wednesday and Thursday...Midlevel heights will begin to lower across
the Great Lakes Region thanks to the midlevel low over Northern
Hudson Bay. The Thermal Ridge axis will retreat westward and bring
surface temperatures back to the low to mid 80s across the CWA.
Wednesday and Thursday will remain dry as continued subsidence
continues surface high Pressure through Thursday.

Friday through Sunday outlook...Closed low pressure continues to
progress southward this weekend and return precipitation to the
Great Lakes Region. Forcing through embedded waves will deliver
disheveled rounds of light showers at times starting this Friday.
Probabilities of QPF remain low at this time mainly due to weak
forcing combined with these systems beginning moisture-starved, but
some areas of the midwest can expect more localized convective
driven rain as a shortwave develops lee of the Canadian Rockies and
digs across the Great Lakes Region this Sunday. Too early to
determine impacts or rainfall potential, but we will monitor this
feature as we head into late July.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Main concern is a cluster of thunderstorms currently over northern
Lake Superior that look to track south into northern Michigan late
tonight/early Monday morning. These storms will encounter an
increasingly unfavorable environment with time and will likely
dissipate at some point as they cross the area, but still bring the
potential for hail, gusty winds, lightning, and brief drops in
VSBY across northern Michigan -- including PLN and TVC.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan
into Monday night. Winds will increase out of the southwest
Monday morning, eventually turning to west winds with gusts to
15-20 kts into Monday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for MIZ041-042.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...DJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
255 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

MIZ017-018-130730-
Cheboygan MI-Presque Isle MI-
255 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PRESQUE ISLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 330 AM EDT...

At 254 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Black Lake, or 10 miles northwest of Onaway, moving southeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Onaway, Ocqueoc, Millersburg, Tomahawk Creek Flooding, Hawks, Black
Lake, Tower, Onaway State Park, and Allis Township.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4520 8410 4520 8423 4548 8450 4559 8430
      4529 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0654Z 319DEG 35KT 4548 8434

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

MG