Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1252 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms continue today into this evening,
  especially across northern lower. Primary threats with any
  strong storms will be large hail and damaging winds with non-
  zero tornado threat.

- Cooler weather beginning Sunday and lasting through much of
  the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A closed mid/upper-level low centered over Ontario looks to largely
churn in place this weekend and through much of next week. An
associated jet max overhead will work east tonight as more
pronounced troughing digs over the Great Lakes Sunday. At the
surface, a weak cold front will slide across northern Michigan this
evening into Sunday morning, becoming the focus for surface pressure
falls across southern Michigan Sunday with favorable ascent aloft.
Relatively high pressure is expected to build in to start the
upcoming work week, but an unsettled pattern looks to set in for
much of the week with multiple waves working across the region with
the aforementioned closed low positioned just to our north.

Forecast Details:

Primary focus will be on scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Latest guidance gives increased confidence in additional
development in the vicinity of the front across the eastern U.P. as
well as continued activity across northern lower -- particularly
near M-32/M-72 east of I-75. Mainly cloud-free skies south of the
office and south-southwesterly low-level flow advecting a more
favorable airmass northward (low 60s Tds just south of the CWA)
should boost MLCAPE to around 1,000 J/kg in the next few hours.
Perhaps more importantly, strong shear will be overlapping said
buoyancy (0-6km shear ~60kts and 0-3km shear ~45kts). Despite less
impressive thermodynamics, this magnitude of shear distributed
throughout the vertical profile as evidenced by near term forecast
soundings will support a localized heightened severe threat in the
corridor mentioned above across northeast lower Michigan. While
mixed-layer LCLs/cloud base heights are expected to be relatively
high (around 1,500m), subtle-but-existant low-level veering would
result in favorable streamwise vorticity ingestion for any right-
moving supercells that develop -- leading to a tornado threat with
any dominant storms. That said, large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threats with any strong storms into this evening.

Additional showers and potential embedded storms will be possible
later this evening into Sunday morning as the front crosses the area
and eventually works to our southeast, leaving dry weather in place
for most of the Northwoods during the day on Sunday. Rain chances
look to hold off on Monday before returning heading into
Tuesday/Wednesday as additional troughing slides over the Great
Lakes. Aside from rain chances, this will also help keep
temperatures on the cool side for much of the next week. Highs in
the 60s and low/mid 70s with overnight lows in the 40s and low 50s
would be a few degrees cooler than average for the middle of June.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Rounds of showers and a few TSRA thru the forecast. Mainly VFR
expected regardless, though brief restrictions (vsby and cigs
both) are possible. The best chance of cig restrictions is at
CIU. Vsbys restrictions in brief heavier rain (and TS) is at the
northern lower TAF sites.

Gusty sw winds, becoming ne heading into tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016-
     095-096-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ345-
     346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ322.

&&

DISCUSSION...DJC
AVIATION...JZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1048 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

MIZ016>018-099-131515-
Cheboygan MI-Presque Isle MI-Emmet MI-Charlevoix MI-
1048 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PRESQUE ISLE...
SOUTHERN CHEBOYGAN...SOUTHEASTERN EMMET AND SOUTHEASTERN CHARLEVOIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 AM EDT...

At 1047 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clarion, or near Petoskey, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Petoskey State Park and Reasoners Corner around 1050 AM EDT.
  Indian River, Wolverine, Burt Lake State Park, and Burt Lake
  around 1055 AM EDT.
  Koehler Township and Afton around 1100 AM EDT.
  Tower around 1110 AM EDT.
  Black Lake around 1115 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Pigeon River State
Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4520 8500 4538 8504 4553 8415 4521 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 260DEG 57KT 4531 8491

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NSC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1127 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

MIZ017-018-131615-
Cheboygan MI-Presque Isle MI-
1127 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PRESQUE ISLE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...

At 1127 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tower, or near Onaway, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Onaway, Ocqueoc, Millersburg, Onaway State Park, and Tower around
  1130 AM EDT.
  Huron Beach around 1135 AM EDT.
  Rogers City, Hawks, and P H Hoeft State Park around 1140 AM EDT.
  Forty Mile Point and Hagensville around 1145 AM EDT.
  Metz around 1150 AM EDT.
  Thompsons Harbor State Park around 1155 AM EDT.
  Presque Isle Light around 1200 PM EDT.
  Presque Isle around 1205 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Moltke Township.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4525 8334 4529 8442 4541 8447 4553 8403
      4553 8393 4545 8378 4545 8369 4539 8358
      4538 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 265DEG 53KT 4537 8431

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NSC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1254 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

MIZ017-018-022>024-131730-
Otsego MI-Montmorency MI-Cheboygan MI-Presque Isle MI-Alpena MI-
1254 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ALPENA...
SOUTHWESTERN PRESQUE ISLE...SOUTHEASTERN CHEBOYGAN...NORTHEASTERN
OTSEGO AND NORTHERN MONTMORENCY COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

At 1253 PM EDT, trained weather spotters reported a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Briley Township, or 11 miles northwest of Atlanta,
moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Former NWS employee.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Canada Creek Ranch, Briley Township, and Tomahawk Creek Flooding
  around 100 PM EDT.
  Hillman, Bisma Township, and Royston around 110 PM EDT.
  Lachine and Long Rapids around 115 PM EDT.
  Posen around 120 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Clear Lake State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 8443 4522 8448 4537 8369 4503 8351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 263DEG 52KT 4511 8434

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NSC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
109 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     Hail             3 N Gaylord             45.08N 84.68W
06/13/2026  M0.50 Inch       Otsego             MI   NWS Employee

            Retired NWS employee reported half inch hail
            3 miles north of Gaylord.

&&