Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
203 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through
Tuesday...a few of which could be strong to severe.

- Mostly dry weather expected after Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures to kick off this week, with
  temperatures again cooling to below normal levels through the
  middle and end portions of the week. Frost/freeze concerns
  Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Large scale NOAM upper level amplification well underway early this
afternoon...driven in large part by strong shortwave trough and 120+
knot upper jet core digging rapidly southeast into the Intermountain
West. Secondary anti-cyclonic 120+ knot upper jet streak rotating
east across northern Ontario also helping this amplification
process...driving steadily increasing heights across the eastern
Conus and Great Lakes. Strong moist/warm advection between these
features rotating up through the central and northern Plains...with
maturing surface boundary, weak low pressure, and MCV from overnight
convection all helping ignite showers and storms within this
increasing warm and moist axis. Southern lower Michigan stationary
front showing signs of beginning its northward journey as a warm
front as this return flow strengthens, with subsequent burgeoning
isentropic upglide and moisture convergence (enhanced by MCV
rotating northeast across southern Wisconsin) helping drive an area
of showers and embedded thunderstorms into the western Great Lakes
...including now parts of our western footprint.

Per the northern Michigan warm season convective usual, plenty
(emphasizing "plenty") of uncertainty in just how things unfold the
next several days...with much of that uncertainty tied to how
upstream convective trends unfold. Does appear their will be
multiple opportunities to see some showers and storms across the
Northwoods...first with current northward bowing warm
front/approaching MCV...followed by sustained deep moisture
advection and eventually cold frontal passage on Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Shower/storm evolution and severe potential through Tuesday.

Details:

Overall, a rather low confidence forecast through Tuesday. With that
said, expect shower and thunderstorm threat to expand north with
time the remainder of this afternoon and evening as moist advection
increases north of northward bowing warm front and approaching MCV.
Confidence remains low on overall deeper convective coverage, but
definitely could see some locally heavier rain amounts with some
hints of convective training along convectively congealed cold
pools. Again, not entirely sure where (if) that sustained
convergence will reside, but something to monitor with potential of
one inch plus rain totals by sunrise Monday. Cannot rule out an
isolated severe storm or two as well given northward expansion of
enhanced mid level lapse rate plume/attendant core of elevated
instability and respectable wind shear through the convective
layer...with the latter enhanced by that approaching warm front.
Main concern would be some marginally severe size hail, although
cannot completely rule out an isolated wind threat or tornado,
especially near and south of the warm front where surface based
instability will reside.

Uncertainty remains high heading into Monday as well. Not overly
confident on just how aggressive the northward push to the warm
sector will be given potential for those overnight cold pools to
slow its northward progress. Could see showers and storms continue
to percolate along and to the north of this front, with additional
afternoon shower/storm development within the warm sector as
aggressive surface heating overcomes intial capping layer aloft.
Could also see upstream dying convection make a run into the area
(which could act to offset that aggressive heating and additional
convective development). Definitely more questions than answers.
Latest Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook continues to place
all areas south of the Mighty Mac in slight risk wording for severe
storms...with all facets of severe attributes possible (to include 2
probs for tornadoes down near Saginaw Bay). Can definitely see this
concern given the possibility for aggressive afternoon
warming/attendant development of surface rooted instability within a
still very favorable kinematic environment. Will simply have to see
how things evolve tonight into tomorrow morning for better severe
weather assessment Monday afternoon.

And...those convective uncertainties continue right into Monday
night and Tuesday. Little doubt we will see additional rounds of
shower and thunderstorms through this period with sustained deep
moisture advection and eventually passage of the cold front on
Tuesday, though exact timing/coverage/and intensity of those storms
are far from certain. SPC continues to place the southeast half of
our area under slight risk severe wording on Tuesday...with that
risk tied to just how aggressive surface warming can become prior to
frontal passage. Again, best course of action is to simply continue
to monitor trends as we head through this period.

Cold frontal passage later Tuesday is a rather strong one, with
rather aggressive drying and cold air advection kicking in Tuesday
night into Wednesday...with highs on Wednesday likely not getting
out of the 40s for at least parts of our area. Could very likely be
looking at another night of frost/freeze concerns Wednesday night as
high pressure looks to settle directly overhead. Pretty remarkable
to already see the guidance consensus blend put low temperatures
Wednesday night down into the lower and middle 30s (especially
considering this blend is at least partially weighted toward normal
values...which will be in the lower and middle 40s for Wednesday's
date). Temperatures gradually moderate Thursday into the weekend
under mostly quiet conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions to start, then CIGs decrease with scattered showers
and thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the overnight hours.
Expect MVFR and IFR possible within the most persistent rains. East
winds continue as well, generally 5 to 15KTs, outside of any
thunderstorms across KMBL which may produce gusty winds. Lower CIGs
slowly lift northward through the night with KTVC and KMBL back to
VFR after 06Z. Another round of showers and storms will be possible
on Monday, favoring the afternoon and evening, although there is
uncertainty in coverage during the morning hours. Low level wind
shear is expected as well, with 30 to 40KTs possible ~06 to 14Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for LMZ323-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday
     for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT
     Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JLD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
244 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-182200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
244 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight.
While most of these storms will remain sub-severe, a few storms
capable of producing marginally severe size hail and gusty winds
are possible. There is a very small chance for tornadoes as well
later this afternoon and early evening, especially along and south
of M-55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times through Tuesday. A few of
these storms may reach severe limits.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-182200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
244 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight.
While most of these storms will remain sub-severe, a few storms
capable of producing marginally severe size hail and gusty winds
are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times through Tuesday. A few of
these storms may reach severe limits.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.