Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Gaylord, MI

269 
WWUS53 KAPX 310718
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
318 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

MIC051-143-310727-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260331T0730Z/
Gladwin MI-Roscommon MI-
318 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GLADWIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROSCOMMON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

&&

LAT...LON 4409 8407 4412 8417 4416 8417 4416 8425
      4417 8428 4429 8427 4442 8373 4404 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0717Z 267DEG 47KT 4424 8398 

$$

MIC011-069-129-310730-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260331T0730Z/
Arenac MI-Ogemaw MI-Iosco MI-
318 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ARENAC...SOUTHERN OGEMAW AND SOUTHWESTERN IOSCO
COUNTIES...

At 317 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Skidway Lake,
or 10 miles northeast of Alger, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe storm will be near...
  Maple Ridge and Whittemore around 320 AM EDT.
  Turner and National City around 325 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Prescott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4409 8407 4412 8417 4416 8417 4416 8425
      4417 8428 4429 8427 4442 8373 4404 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0717Z 267DEG 47KT 4424 8398 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

ELD

157 
WWUS53 KAPX 310725
SVSAPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
325 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

MIC011-069-129-310735-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-260331T0730Z/
Arenac MI-Ogemaw MI-Iosco MI-
325 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ARENAC...SOUTHERN
OGEMAW AND SOUTHWESTERN IOSCO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 AM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, heavy
rain is still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4409 8407 4412 8417 4416 8417 4416 8425
      4417 8428 4429 8427 4442 8373 4404 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0725Z 267DEG 47KT 4424 8388 

$$

ELD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
201 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Times of showers and storms today with the primary threats of
  heavy rain and hail

- Widespread mixed precipitation chances return late Wednesday
  and will linger into early Thursday. Still uncertainty with
  what happens during the day Thursday.

- Unsettled pattern continues through the weekend, brining below
  normal temperatures which will linger into the early part of
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Current surface observations depict a warm front stretching from west
to east across central northern lower this morning. Satellite shows
a stream of Pacific moisture being carried along an upper jet over
the northern CONUS meeting with a low level plume of gulf moisture
near the Great Lakes region this morning. This plume of lower level
moisture transport towards northern MI has been aided by a LLJ over
the southern part of the state as well as over IL/IN. The influx of
moisture, strong winds and wind shear, and warmer temperatures
within the LLJ all explain why there is blossoming convection over
northern lower this morning. Modeled soundings depict around 700 to
1000+ j/kg of elevated instability, as well as mid level lapse rates
of 7C/km. Winds shear of 30+ kts is also seen from the sfc up to 1km
and increases up the column. This higher shear environment is also
apparent while looking at radar, fast moving storms with tilted
updrafts. Heavy rain and lightning are being seen by most storms,
with a few of the stronger storms producing hail greater than half
of an inch in diameter. The lower level inversion is keeping
damaging wind threats at bay, however an isolated stronger gust
cannot be ruled out especially south of M-55 which is closer to the
warm front boundary.

As an area of surface low pressure will reach over northern MI near
sunrise this morning, it will bring drier air from the central
plains with it. Cloud cover will begin to fill in, with chances for
isolated embedded storms lingering. PWATs will decrease from just
over an inch down to 0.8", keeping a couple hundred j/kg of elevated
instability around. Mid level lapse rates remain around 7 C/km, and
ample wind shear still exists around this time as well.

As the surface low exits to the east (over Lk Huron), a cold front
will start to move through around midday today. The second wave of
scattered to numerous showers and storms will be seen ahead and
along of the boundary beginning mid to late morning, as moisture
amounts rebound (PWATs back to 1"). The main threats with storms
will be heavy rain and lightning, with a handful of stronger storms
being capable of producing hail around a half inch or greater and
gusty outflow winds. Behind the front, colder air will settle in for
tonight. The surface high will be anchored over the far southern
part of the Hudson Bay, providing cool east to northeast winds over
northern MI Wednesday.

Over the intermountain west, a pattern change is occurring. An upper
level trough is forecasted to move over the central and southern
Rockies. This will bring Pacific moisture to the central plains, and
also deepen an existing lee side low near NM/OK. Late Wednesday into
early Thursday, that trough will eject over the central plains. A
strong southwesterly LLJ will be seen during this time over the
central plains and up to the Great Lakes states. This will advect
warmer air up and over the anchored surface high early Thursday.
This will be a favorable system to produce heavy precipitation
somewhere in the northern plains and/or Great Lakes region Thursday
(robust jet dynamics, ideal isentropic ascent, and moisture
availability). Global ensembles still keep a healthy amount of
disagreement in the evolution of the upper trough, and thus the
track of the surface low. The majority of global ensembles
favor tracking the center of the low over either northern MI or
across the U.P. and into Lk Superior. The first track would
yield a more prolonged window of mixed precipitation for much
of northern MI (snow is eastern upper), with the second track
generating mixed precip initially but transitioning to mostly
rain with some thunder chances. Guidance is leaning strongly on
advecting the 0C 850 mb line to at least the bridge, which
makes sense with the strong southwesterly jet over the central
plains. This adds confidence to either of these scenarios, vs a
more south track that would produce mostly snow over all of
northern MI.

Ensembles and global guidance is leaning towards favoring the warmer
solutions, with keeping the 75th percentile (reasonable worst
case) capped at 0.2" of ice accumulation for Thursday across
eastern upper and the higher hills of northern lower. With that
said, a few outliers still do generate impactful ice across
parts of northern lower and/or eastern upper (impactful ice
being >0.2"). Although impactful accumulating snow is less
likely, some outliers are producing up to +5" of snow over
eastern upper and near the Lk Huron shores of northeast lower.
To summarize, guidance is favoring widespread mixed
precipitation late Wednesday into early Thursday; with two main
solutions diverging and one keeping mixed precip during the day
with another brining warm rain to much of northern lower during
the day Thursday. Further details will resolved as we get
closer.

The pattern remains active as a larger upper low will move across
the western CONUS towards the central and northern plains. Chances
for rain and possibly times of light snow will linger through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to work across northern
Michigan over the next few hours, most notably near MBL where
frequent lightning is ongoing around the site. Storms look to depart
the area around the 09Z-10Z timeframe, leaving a break in
precipitation chances before additional showers and embedded storms
will be possible late morning into this afternoon. Mainly VFR CIGs
also look to deteriorate later this morning as IFR and potentially
LIFR CIGs move in, sticking around into the afternoon before
improving into this evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...DJC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-311100-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
330 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible tonight across northern Lower,
some stronger storms will be possible south of the M-32 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday across northern
Lower, some stronger storms will be possible south of the M-72
corridor.

A messy wintry mix of precipitation, including the potential for
accumulating snow and ice, is possible Wednesday night through
Thursday night across parts of northern Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-311100-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
330 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

JPB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1243 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 PM     Hail             2 N Bellaire            45.00N 85.21W
03/30/2026  M0.75 Inch       Antrim             MI   Public

            Social media picture of hail smaller than
            nickel size on M-88 north of Bellaire. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1246 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 AM     Hail             3 E Lake City           44.32N 85.16W
03/31/2026  M0.50 Inch       Missaukee          MI   Public

            Social media picture of half in hail 3 miles
            east of Lake City at intersection of South
            Burkett RD and West Beeler Rd. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
103 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     Hail             2 N Merritt             44.35N 84.94W
03/31/2026  M0.50 Inch       Missaukee          MI   Public

            Social media picture of hail slightly larger
            than 1 cm halfway between Lake City and
            Houghton Lake. Time estimated via radar.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
149 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

MIZ031-032-310615-
Manistee MI-Wexford MI-
149 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WEXFORD AND CENTRAL
MANISTEE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 AM EDT...

At 149 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Norwalk, or 10 miles northeast of Manistee, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sherman, Kaleva, Onekama, Mesick, Bear Lake, Harrietta, Brethren,
Norwalk, Yuma, Orchard Beach State Park, and Wildwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 8632 4439 8630 4451 8571 4429 8566
      4427 8634
TIME...MOT...LOC 0549Z 258DEG 52KT 4434 8616

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

JLD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
206 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 AM     Hail             Mesick                  44.41N 85.71W
03/31/2026  E1.50 Inch       Wexford            MI   Public

            Social media report with picture of 1.5 in.
            to 2 in. hail in Mesick. Time estimated via
            radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
248 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 AM     Hail             Lake City               44.33N 85.21W
03/31/2026  E1.00 Inch       Missaukee          MI   Public

            Social media picture of hail from Lake City.
            Time estimated via radar.

&&