River Flood Warning 3, NWS Gaylord, MI

483 
WGUS83 KAPX 011709
FLSAPX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
109 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling affecting Arenac County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

this evening at 800 PM EDT.

&&

MIC011-020000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260402T0000Z/
/STRM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
109 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is possible.

* WHERE...Rifle River near Sterling.

* WHEN...Until this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, High water begins to impact canoe livery at 
  River View Campground.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:30 PM EDT Wednesday the stage was 5.9 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 4.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 3.5 feet
    Wednesday, April 08.
  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    6.0 feet on 04/26/1957.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4406 8391 4406 8407 4416 8407 4411 8397
      4404 8379 4399 8381


$$

JLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
753 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early spring storm system to impact the Great Lakes Wednesday
  night/Thursday with myriad potential hazards.

- Another round of (wintry) precipitation for Saturday.

- Turning cooler for Easter Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Zonal flow pattern starting to show signs
of buckling a bit: split flow over the eastern Pacific with a
compact upper low over the Gulf of Alaska and a positive tilt short
wave trough west of California.  Short wave trough crossing the
southern Prairie provinces...with downstream troughing over Atlantic
Canada. 130+kt northern branch jet streak across Ontario/Quebec...
tight thermal gradient from northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan
northward with a low level thermal ridge extending from the central
Plains into the Great Lakes.  Already a broad area of 1+ inch
precipitable water values across the eastern half of the CONUS.  At
the surface...strung out series of frontal waves along a stationary
boundary extending from the lower Lakes west across southern
Wisconsin/northern Iowa/southeast Nebraska.  Broad high pressure
over the western Atlantic feeding moisture from the Gulf northward
into the frontal boundary with 50s dew points into southern Lower
Michigan.  On the opposite end of the spectrum cold high pressure
extends across most of central/eastern Canada...broken up only by an
inverted trough across Manitoba/Minnesota as a surface reflection of
the passing short wave trough riding along the Canadian border.

This short wave will cross the upper Lakes tonight...while short
wave trough west of California will get kicked east by digging Gulf
of Alaska upper low.  This trough expected to cross the central/
southern Plains Thursday...and through the Great Lakes Friday.  This
will be followed by the kicker low...expected to track from the
Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin Thursday...across the
northern/central Plains Friday...and the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
during the weekend.  Potential for another reinforcing short wave
trough in the Tuesday time frame.

Frontal boundary across southern Lower expected to remain there into
tonight with a frontal wave or two rippling along it.  High pressure
to the north then nudges the front into the Ohio Valley with a
reinforcing push of colder northeast boundary layer flow for
Wednesday.  Attention then turns to incipient lee cyclogenesis in
the central/southern High Plains...the evolution of which will have
big implications on Thursday/Friday weather impacts.  Current trends
suggest initial low will spin up over southeast Colorado late
Wednesday...track toward MCI-OMA vicinity Thursday morning...then
likely across the upper Lakes Friday (perhaps across eastern Upper).
The northern extent of the storm track will be resisted by a 1036+mb
high over northern Ontario/Quebec...which is actually quite
anomalous for early April.  The main concern is that this high gives
way sufficiently to allow the low to propagate into the colder air.
System dynamics and surface tendency QG diagnostics suggest a track
across northern Michigan is quite reasonable provided the low level
stability issues can be overcome.  Another Colorado/western Kansas
low is expected to spin up Thursday night...and follow a similar
(perhaps slightly farther south) track across Lower Michigan
Saturday.  Colder northwest boundary layer winds set in for Easter
Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Early spring storm system to impact the Great Lakes Wednesday
night/Thursday with myriad potential hazards: Impressive deep layer
moisture surge expected to get pulled across east-west baroclinic
zone Wednesday night into Thursday; precipitable water values across
northern Lower ~1.25"/+3 sigma standardized anomaly.  Precipitation
shield will spread southwest to northeast across the forecast area
probably starting close to midnight Thursday...as the moisture flux
is worked on by isentropic ascent/increasing frontogenetic
forcing/right jet entrance region forcing.  Pronounced elevated warm
nose also expected to develop up the warm frontal zone...and with
easterly winds reinforcing a colder (and drier) boundary layer
setting up a pretty good freezing rain scenario over a good part of
northern Lower especially along/east of US-131.  The exception may
be the Tip of the Mitt counties where precipitation arrives late and
more likely as the frozen type (snow/sleet) before transitioning to
freezing rain.  How impactful icing gets will depend on 1) If the
entrenched sub-freezing surface air can be overcome during the day
and 2) If there is a break in the precipitation ahead of the cold
front passage (QPF reduction).  Will trend the forecast such that
higher terrain areas along with northeast Lower will remain at or
below freezing through Thursday morning before warming above
freezing during the afternoon.  Cold frontal rain band (likely with
convection) swings through the forecast area Thursday night likely
followed by dry slotting.

Meanwhile across eastern Upper and the Straits region more likely
that precipitation arrives as snow/sleet early Thursday morning...
then with the warm nose lifting into the Upper Peninsula expect a
transition to more of a freezing rain set up with surface
temperatures likely to remain below freezing through the afternoon
(am less confident about temperatures warming above freezing north
of the bridge until perhaps Thursday evening but that is dependent
on storm track).  Winds will be gusty from the east as well...on the
order of 30+mph.  Not sure how readily this snow will blow around
but it won't hurt the cause.

Forecast snow and ice totals don't quite reach what would be warning
criteria.  However will be issuing Winter Storm Watches for eastern
Upper and far northern Lower for the following reasons: 1) Eastern
Upper will likely see wintry precipitation through the day (frozen
to freezing)...so a combination of cement mixer consistency snow and
some ice on top of that will be impactful from a travel
standpoint...along with gusty east winds.  2) The northern Lower
counties are the ones that I'm most concerned about the cold air
hanging on longer during the day Thursday and could be more
problematic.  3) And my favorite: there is nothing wrong with going
from a watch to a high-end advisory. Watches are not pre-warnings;
we can go deeper with this if surface temperature trends become more
problematic...or we can back out (I'm certain no one will be upset
with only getting a minimal amount of icing given recent history).
The proposed watch from WPC extended all the way down the US-131 and
I-75 corridors into central Lower but didn't want to go that far
given the assumption that it is more likely that freezing precip
will be more transient farther south. Wanted to hit the areas that
could be more problematic.  Northern Lower watch will run from 0600Z-
2100Z Thursday...Eastern Upper from 0900Z Thursday-0000Z Friday.

Another round of (wintry) precipitation for Saturday: As mentioned
above next system that arrives Saturday will take a similar track to
Thursday's storm...which also brings up the potential for another
round of a mix of precipitation types for Friday night into
Saturday...again with the likelihood of a transition to all rain at
some point Saturday (provided surface temperatures behaves mainly
north of the Bridge).

Turning cooler for Easter Sunday:  Brisk/cold northwest winds settle
across the Great Lakes in the wake of Saturday's system...which will
pull cold air back across the Great Lakes for Easter.  Some
wraparound moisture and/or some instability rain/snow showers also
in the offing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 753 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Precipitation free weather is anticipated through the cycle. IFR to
MVFR CIGs continue tonight, becoming MVFR to VFR at various times on
Wednesday. North to northwest winds this evening and tonight become
northeast on Wednesday, occasionally gusting between 15 and 20
knots. Chance for patchy BR early this evening with VSBYs ~1-3SM,
but overall, not expecting this to be a significant concern at
terminals as winds remain elevated overnight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     afternoon for MIZ016>018-022>024-098-099.
     Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     evening for MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JPB
AVIATION...JLD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
405 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-011100-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
405 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wintry precipitation will overspread northern Michigan Wednesday
night and continue through Thursday. See ongoing Winter Storm
Watch for additional information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-011100-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
405 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gale force winds will be possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

JPB