Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
122 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Elevated fire weather danger today.

-Showers track across the northwoods this evening.

-Seasonably cool temperatures Tuesday through the rest of the week
will consistently bring frost/freeze concerns across Northern
Michigan.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

A 500mb closed low pressure system remains over Hudson Bay with deep
longwave troughing extending southward into the northeastern CONUS.
Embedded shortwave ridging over the Great Lakes Region today will
advect warm air from the southeast as H8 temperatures remain around
8-10C. Mixing down to the surface, adiabatic heating processes and a
lack of atmospheric moisture will result in highs in the low/mid 70s
today and critically low RH values.

Previously mentioned troughing with its axis extended through the
Minnesota/Dakota region will develop surface low pressure and sweep
a strong thermal gradient cold front across Northern Michigan. After
showers depart the region overnight, the aforementioned trough axis
will shift eastward and settle over the Great Lakes region. Cool cP
air influence with 850mb temperatures below freezing will continue
climatologically cool weather this Tuesday through the rest of the
week. Daytime highs will remain in the 40s and 50s while overnight
lows near freezing will continue Frost/Freeze concerns for
vegetation.

Forecast Details:

Elevated fire weather danger today... The aforementioned warm air
advection associated with the shortwave ridge will begin to surge
into the area today. Model soundings will begin to saturate from the
top of the profile downward with very high dew point depressions at
the surface, creating an “inverted V” profile. Low level jet
development moves over Lake Michigan with 40kt winds by noon.
Efficient daytime mixing will transport strong wind gusts to the
surface along with further lowering dew points to the low 30s.
Minimal RH values and winds will continue elevated Fire Weather
wording along with wind gusts reaching 30 to 40mph this afternoon
through 00Z Tuesday.

Showers and storms this evening...Strong surface low pressure to the
Northwest with attached cold frontal boundary remains moisture
starved even with strong southwest flow during the day. Midlevel
lapse rates will provide enough instability to produce convective
driven showers to sweep across the region. Showers will begin as
early as this evening when saturation aloft finally overcomes dry
surface conditions. Only QPF totals of 0.10” or less is expected
across the CWA.

Seasonably cool weather with Frost/Freeze beyond Tuesday...The
previously mentioned shortwave will progress southeast and position
its axis over Northern Michigan as surface low pressure departs
northeast. Cold cP surface air influence and sub-freezing H8
temperatures will then occupy the CWA this Tuesday through the
remainder of the week. Even with high pressure and overall
precipitation-free conditions this Tuesday through Thursday,
adiabatic heating to the surface will result in highs in the upper
40s and 50s through Friday while overnight lows fall to the mid to
low 30s. The biggest concern at this time remains the continuation
of frost and freeze threatening sensitive vegetation during these
early stages of the growing season. Lingering low-level moisture
will keep some scattered showers in the forecast toward the end of
the week as embedded weak energy waves track through the region, but
little to no QPF is expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Main issue thru rest of afternoon is winds, with gusts already 35-
45kts and think this will only continue; not impossible winds could
be stronger, though, esp between 21-3z as wind shift from SW to NW/N
comes through. Brief period of lighter winds for a couple hours
before picking back up to 10-15kts after 6z, esp after daybreak,
with gusts around 20-25kts after 12z. SHRA/TSRA possible this
afternoon into this evening but should wind down after 3-6z. Cigs
likely remain VFR; could touch MVFR for a brief period this evening
but not likely to stay there. Cu/strato-cu redevelops during the
morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ346>349.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...FEF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1024 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-051430-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1024 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Elevated fire danger is in place across northern lower Michigan
today. Please see the Fire Weather Planning Forecast for
additional details.

There is a slight chance of non-severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening.

Localized flooding will linger near rivers, lakes, and poor
drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Frost/freeze conditions return Tuesday night and continue each
night through the remainder of the week.

Localized flooding will linger near rivers, lakes, and poor
drainage areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-051430-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1024 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Gale force wind gusts are expected today across Lake Michigan and
the Straits of Mackinac. Please see the latest Gale Warning for
additional details.

There is a slight chance of non-severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.