Gale Warning 9, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
125 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow chances and gusty winds resulting in brief low
  visibilities and minor accumulations today

- Colder temperatures settle in for tonight and Tuesday

- Rain chances and warmer temperatures return mid to late week,
  with brief rain/snow mix

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Forecast: Current radar and satellite depict patchy light snow
showers over parts of the western U.P. and central/SW L.P. A typical
PNA pattern exists in the upper level flow, with a few embedded
shortwaves rotating around the trough (with an an axis over the
eastern Great Lakes region). These shortwaves are sparking some of
the light precip/clouds around the region this morning, as WV
satellite and 00Z RAOBs show some mid to upper level moisture to
work it. Closer to the surface, a ~1040mb CAN surface high is
sliding down the CAN plains with its leading front currently
reaching the central plains. The parent mid and upper shortwave
(troughing reflected all the way down to 850 mbs) will reach Lk
Superior this morning, and the eastern U.P. and northern lower by
early afternoon. Lake aggregate troughing will be seen with this,
bending the isobars around northern lower MI. This will result in
generally northerly winds over eastern upper and northwesterly winds
over northern lower today as widespread light to moderate snow moves
across the state this afternoon. Winds will strengthen, with gusts
up to 25 to 35 mph at times.

Very cold air aloft (-17C to -15C at 850mb) will usher in behind the
exiting upper waves tonight. This will generate a band or two of
lake effect snow primarily over NW lower, which will linger into
early Tuesday morning. With the surface high right over MI Tuesday,
high temperatures will struggle to reach out of the 30s. Calm winds
and sunshine will also be seen Tuesday.

A Gulf of Alaska system will race down the CAN Rockies towards the
northern plains Tuesday. This approaching system will quickly return
southerly flow to the state, and allow temperature to warm back to
near normal starting Wednesday. Drier air from the previous CAN
airmass will have settled over the SE US, somewhat limiting deep
gulf return flow into the central plains. Existing continental
moisture and Pacific moisture wrapped up in the upper low will
provide enough for precipitation chances to return late Wednesday
into early Thursday. Cooler air will exist to the north, and could
lead to times of rain/snow for areas north of the bridge. Generally
good agreement from guidance (ensembles and deterministic globals)
on the upper low tracking across the northern plains and into
Ontario CAN, which would drag a cold front across the area from west
to east Thursday. A line of showers and thunderstorms would be
possible in this environment. A surface high will move over MI
eventually for the weekend, cooling temperatures down and drying
things out.

Details: Strong winds and light to times of moderate snow will
likely result in some visibility reductions today, however
visibilities that drop below 3 SM will be local and brief. A
decent amount of drier air exists, which will lead to a
localized footprint of where more moderate snowfall is able to
occur. As the lake aggregate induced surface troughing moves
through this afternoon, areas along and north of M-72 could see
these lower visibility's as more moderate snowfall moves
through. CAMs are in generally agreement for where they track
the surface troughing (and thus the area of enhanced LL
convergence). Two things are leading to confidence in impacts
being minimal today; the first is the lack of background
moisture and the second is the feature moves through the area
rather quickly. This results in a short window for accumulation
of snow that is generally light. But will also result in a few
local spots seeing that more moderate snow for an hour or two
this afternoon, and could accumulation up to 2 inches.

The lake effect behind this feature will likely be in spots that
didn't see the times of moderate snowfall today (southern snowbelts
of NW lower). Not only will this further spread out the QPF, but by
the time of the lake effect the amount of moisture in the air will
have decreased even more. LL winds will weaken early Tuesday
morning, and any lingering lake effect should diminish by sunrise.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Conditions are expected to deteriorate as additional snow
showers progress into the region with IFR to LIFR visibilities
possible within the heaviest snow showers. Drops to MVFR CIGs
will also be possible by this afternoon, especially across
northwest Lower and eastern Upper. Northwest winds will gust
25-35 knots, decreasing through tonight, most notably after 06z
becoming light ~12z. A gradual improvement in condtions is
expected after 00z as snow showers diminish and skies try to
clear. Northwest winds prevail into Tuesday gradually turning
more westerly, remaining light.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.

&&

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...NSC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1125 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-071530-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1125 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early
evening, mainly across northern lower Michigan.

High flows on area rivers may cause flooding along riverbanks
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-071530-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1125 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Gale force winds are possible over Lake Michigan and Lake Huron
this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.